The beauty of college football is that Vanderbilt and LSU enter the weekend with a 6-4 record, yet the two are having vastly different seasons.
The Commodores are having a tremendous season. They have doubled their pregame win total of 3 and clinched their first bowl appearance since 2018. They upset Alabama, Kentucky, and Auburn and have been one of the best stories of the 2024 season.
But for the Tigers, this season has been a massive disappointment. LSU has already clinched its win total under 9 after entering the season with the fifth-best odds to win the SEC. The Tigers have dropped three straight games, and their 6-4 record has the fanbase in panic mode, and people are already calling for Brian Kelly’s job.
LSU is a 7.5-point favorite on the spread with a 53.5-point over/under.
Where does the betting value lie?
Read more for my Vanderbilt vs. LSU predictions and college football picks.
Vanderbilt Commodores vs LSU Tigers Prediction, Picks
- Vanderbilt vs LSU Pick: Vanderbilt +7.5
My Vanderbilt vs LSU best bet is on the Commodores to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Vanderbilt vs LSU Odds
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +290 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -370 |
- Vanderbilt vs LSU Spread: Vanderbilt +9.5 · LSU -9.5
- Vanderbilt vs LSU Over/Under: 52.5
- Vanderbilt vs LSU Moneyline: Vanderbilt ML +290 · LSU ML -370
Vanderbilt vs LSU Preview
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview: Heavy on the Run
Vanderbilt is one of those teams that doesn’t do anything great, but it just finds a way to win. It plays extremely slow and runs the ball 61% of the time. Quarterback Diego Pavia is the team’s leading rusher, averaging 62.8 yards per game with five rushing touchdowns on the year.
Pavia runs an RPO offense with tailback Sedrick Alexander, who averages 47 yards per game. This offense is a borderline triple-option scheme, averaging 38.2 rushing attempts per game.
When Pavia does pass the ball, he has been very efficient. He has tossed 15 touchdowns with just three interceptions, and his favorite target is tight end Eli Stowers, who transferred over with him from New Mexico State.
On paper, this is a difficult matchup for Vanderbilt. Its defense has done a good job at slowing down opponents on the ground but ranks just 100th in Pass Success Rate allowed. That could be an issue against LSU, who rarely runs the ball.
Vanderbilt has done a good job creating Havoc and gets strong when teams get in scoring position. It is allowing just 21 points per game and the defense has done enough to muck games up and keep it close.
LSU Tigers Betting Preview: What's Next for the Tigers?
LSU wants to beat teams through the air. It ranks 128th in rush rate and relies on quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. He is averaging 312.6 yards per game and has thrown 22 touchdowns to 11 interceptions.
Nussmeier has a rocket arm and uses it to find his talented receiver group of Kyren Lacy, Aaron Anderson, and tight end Mason Taylor. Both Lacy and Anderson average over 70 yards per game and 15 yards per catch.
The Tigers' three-game losing streak is a direct result of their biggest strengths struggling. Over the last three games, Nussmeier has thrown four touchdowns with five interceptions, and what was once considered the best offensive line in the country has completely fallen apart.
There was hope that this LSU defense would take a step forward, but that just has not been the case. The passing defense is still a mess. The Tigers rank 100th in PFF’s Coverage Grade and still have massive issues with tackling, as was evident when Alabama rushed for 311 yards and six touchdowns.
Vanderbilt vs LSU Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Vanderbilt and LSU match up statistically:
Vanderbilt Offense vs. LSU Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 100 | 49 | |
| Line Yards | 108 | 41 | |
| Pass Success | 39 | 89 | |
| Havoc | 37 | 29 | |
| Finishing Drives | 51 | 44 | |
| Quality Drives | 25 | 91 | |
LSU Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 107 | 57 | |
| Line Yards | 96 | 36 | |
| Pass Success | 35 | 100 | |
| Havoc | 15 | 38 | |
| Finishing Drives | 62 | 104 | |
| Quality Drives | 12 | 60 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 115 | 82 |
| PFF Coverage | 94 | 100 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 5 | 47 |
| Middle 8 | 82 | 72 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.9 (131) | 27.0 (64) |
| Rush Rate | 61% (18) | 39% (128) |
Vanderbilt vs LSU Pick, Best Bet
You have to wonder what LSU's mindset is entering this game.
It's out of the College Football Playoff race and will come up short of all its goals this season. It has lost three games in a row, and it is hard to see the Tigers getting up for this game against Vanderbilt.
The Commodores can continue their magical season by entering Baton Rouge and knocking off a vulnerable Tigers squad. Vanderbilt has thrived in this role all season — playing at an extremely slow pace, ranking 131st in seconds per play. It also limits possessions, runs the ball, and trusts Pavia to make plays when the team needs them.
Vanderbilt’s best asset is Pavia’s legs, and he should be able to run on this LSU defense that has struggled to stop running quarterbacks all season. LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina) ran for 88 yards and two touchdowns, Marcel Reed (Texas A&M) ran for 62 yards and three touchdowns, and Jalen Milroe (Alabama) torched this defense for 185 yards and four touchdowns. Pavia should find success on the ground against this leaky LSU defense.
LSU’s strength all season has been its offensive line, which has given Nussmeier time to find his receivers downfield. However, that has not been the case recently. After being sacked just once in the first seven games, Nussmeier has been sacked 11 times in the last three games.
Florida managed to get him to the ground seven times last week. The increase in pressure has caused Nussmeier to struggle with accuracy and turnovers. He has nine turnover-worthy plays in the last three games, more than in the first seven games.
Vanderbilt’s style of play makes them thrive as underdogs. The Commodores are 6-1 against the spread as an underdog and 6-0 against the spread as dogs of seven or more, including four outright wins.
Pick: Vanderbilt +7.5 (Play to +7)
Vanderbilt vs LSU Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 23 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | SEC Network |
Vanderbilt vs LSU will be played at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, on Saturday, Nov. 23 at 7:45 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on SEC Network.
Vanderbilt vs LSU Betting Trends
Vanderbilt vs LSU Weather
