The Utah State Aggies (4-7, 3-3 MWC) travel to take on the Colorado State Rams (7-4, 5-1 MWC) in Mountain West Conference play on Friday, Nov. 29. This game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET and can be seen live on FS1.
Utah State is seeking to close out a rather disappointing season with a win, while Colorado State attempts to keep pace with the leaders at the top of the MWC standings.
The Rams will need a win here coupled with a UNLV loss to secure a spot in the conference championship game next week.
Colorado State comes in as a -6 favorite with the over/under set at 59.5. So, where does the betting value lie for this Friday afternoon Mountain West matchup?
Let's take a look at my Utah State vs. Colorado State predictions and college football picks for Friday, Nov. 29.
Prediction for Utah State vs Colorado State
- Utah State vs. Colorado State Pick: Utah State +6
My Colorado State vs. Utah State best bet is on the Aggies to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Utah State vs Colorado State Odds
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 58.5 -110 / -110 | +185 |
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 58.5 -110 / -110 | -225 |
- Utah State vs Colorado State Spread: Utah State +6 (-110) · Colorado State -6 (-110)
- Utah State vs Colorado State Over/Under: 58.5
- Utah State vs Colorado State Moneyline: Utah State +185 · Colorado State -225
Utah State vs Colorado State Betting Preview
Utah State Aggies Winning Probability: In a Good Spot
Utah State is coming in off of a home win over San Diego State last week. The Aggies battled back from a 13-0 deficit late in the second quarter and scored two touchdowns in the final two minutes of the first half.
USU scored four straight touchdowns in the second half to take firm control as the ground game shredded SDSU for 323 yards.
Give credit to Utah State — this team was dead in the water at 1-6 with no momentum, but it has competed extremely well, winning three of its last four games.
Utah State is going to be able to move the football here against Colorado State, and the offense has been clicking now for several weeks. In the last two weeks, Utah State has put up 96 points and 1,068 total yards in back-to-back wins.
The ground game has been incredible, rushing for 300-plus yards each of the last two weeks. Colorado State ranks just 71st nationally in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 66th in EPA Per Rush allowed, so that could be a problem for the Rams.
Utah State running back Rahsul Faison should get loose here, and the dual-threat element that new starting quarterback Bryson Barnes brings will add stress to an already middling defense.
On the other side, the Aggies defense has been terrible for most of the season, but the stop unit has played much better over the last two games and could have some success here against a Colorado State offense that has been unimpressive for weeks.
The Rams are just 94th in Offensive Success Rate, 109th in Offensive Explosiveness and 101st in Offensive Finishing Drives.
Utah State has done well on defense in limiting Standard Down Explosiveness, along with preventing passing downs explosives in the secondary.
Colorado State Rams Winning Probability: Will Rams Be Motivated?
Colorado State is coming off its first conference loss of the season, losing to Fresno State, 28-22. The Rams have lost control of their own destiny in the MWC race and will now rely on a win this week along with some help to get the chance to play Boise State.
Colorado State has played the weakest MWC schedule up to this point while avoiding both Boise State and UNLV in the regular season. On top of that, it struggled badly in the first half against Fresno State.
This will be an interesting contest against a resurgent Utah State team this week.
Defensively, Colorado State sits just 120th nationally in Success Rate and 130th in Defensive Finishing Drives. Utah State has gashed comparable defenses all season, and there's no reason to believe it won’t have success here.
I like the urgency that Utah State is playing with, and while the team had every reason to quit earlier in the season, it has done anything but mail it in.
Colorado State's leading rusher, Avery Morrow, was also injured last week and was severely limited against Fresno State. Unsurprisingly, the run game suffered.
Fresno State completely shut down CSU in the first half, and the Rams really started to find success through the air once the game was decidedly in hand.
Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has been really mediocre this year, throwing for just 1,781 yards on the season with an 8:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The offense has not thrown for 300 yards in a game this season, which is stunning considering it had seven such games last year.
Utah State vs Colorado State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Utah State and Colorado State match up statistically:
Utah State Offense vs. Colorado State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 56 | 53 |  |
| Line Yards | 36 | 52 | |
| Pass Success | 28 | 81 | |
| Havoc | 41 | 52 | |
| Finishing Drives | 23 | 89 | |
| Quality Drives | 80 | 41 | |
Colorado State Offense vs. Utah State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 69 | 116 | |
| Line Yards | 100 | 127 | |
| Pass Success | 102 | 104 | |
| Havoc | 55 | 107 | |
| Finishing Drives | 106 | 120 | |
| Quality Drives | 71 | 123 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 115 | 43 |
| PFF Coverage | 73 | 62 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 72 | 95 |
| Middle 8 | 106 | 85 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.4 (4) | 29.1 (113) |
| Rush Rate | 47% (104) | 58% (25) |
Utah State vs Colorado State Pick & Prediction
I really like what I've seen from Utah State over the last four weeks or so, and I can certainly see the Aggies showing up in this spot.
The Rams had a really deflating loss last week and no longer control their own destiny to reach the Mountain West Championship game. For that reason, I could see an apathetic performance here from CSU.
Utah State has really impressed me with its effort and play on the field, and I have every reason to believe it's showing up again this week.
Take the points here — and I wouldn't be the least bit shocked if Utah State wins the game outright.
Go Aggies!
Pick: Utah State +6
Utah State vs Colorado State Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Canvas Stadium, Fort Collins, CO |
| Date: | Friday, Nov. 29 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
Utah State heads to Fort Collins on Friday to take on Colorado State at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
Utah State vs Colorado State Betting Trends
Utah State vs Colorado State Weather
