The Tennessee Volunteers (9-2, 5-2 SEC) head to Nashville on Saturday to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores (6-5, 3-4) in an in-state SEC showdown. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Diego Pavia and the Commodores have a chance to do the funniest thing possible.
No one loves to spoil a good party — or at least flirt with doing so — like Vanderbilt and its quarterback. Just ask Alabama what it feels like to lose in FirstBank Stadium and watch a herd of fans stream onto the field and rip down the goalposts.
Looking to avoid that complete catastrophe is Tennessee. The Volunteers were one of the biggest beneficiaries of the plethora of carnage last weekend. A win over their in-state rival would all but guarantee a College Football Playoff berth.
The stakes couldn’t be any higher in this one. Up for grabs is the growing legend of Pavia and/or a spot in the CFP. If Pavia is unable to lead the Commodores to victory, can he at least make the Vols sweat?
Tennessee enters as a -11 favorite with the over/under at 48.5.
Let's dive into my Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 30.
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Prediction, Picks
- Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Pick: Vanderbilt +11
My Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee best bet is on the Commodores to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Odds, Spread, Lines
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -112 | 47 -108o / -112u | -395 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -108 | 47 -108o / -112u | +310 |
- Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Spread: Tennessee -10.5 · Vanderbilt +10.5
- Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Over/Under: 47 Points
- Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Moneyline: Tennessee ML -395 · Vanderbilt ML +310
Tennessee Football vs. Vanderbilt Football Preview
Tennessee Volunteers Betting Preview: Trying to Put It Together
There’s a case to be made that Tennessee was one of the biggest winners from all of the chaos of last weekend. Now, Tennessee is in prime position to just beat Vanderbilt and secure a spot in the College Football Playoff without having to play in the SEC Championship.
That’s not to say its weekend was perfect, though. The Vols offense was slow to start against UTEP, not scoring until the second quarter en route to a 56-0 blowout.
That game is sort of symbolic of the Tennessee offense all season: You know the talent is there to do special things; it just doesn’t all come together for four quarters every week.
The most valuable piece of that offense isn’t highly-touted prospect Nico Iamaleava. It’s running back Dylan Sampson.
Tennessee ranks ninth in the country with 227.6 rushing yards per game, paced by Sampson’s 1,307 yards and 22 rushing touchdowns — the third-most nationally.
Iamaleava has helped lead an efficient passing offense that is 13th in Pass Success Rate, but he hasn’t quite put up the raw numbers that were expected of him, passing for just 15 touchdowns and 2,255 yards.
But as impressive as Tennessee’s offense has been at times, its defense is even better. The Vols field a top-10 rushing defense that's a force at the line of scrimmage, ranking fifth in Havoc and sixth in tackles for loss.
With the exception of the ugly Georgia loss two weeks ago, Tennessee has held every opponent to fewer than 20 points.
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview: Diego, Diego
This is where legends are made. Pavia is no stranger to beating teams that he is outgunned by on paper, and in beating Tennesee, Vanderbilt could limit the ever-powerful SEC to just two teams in the CFP.
While the sheen on the Commodores’ fairy-tale season has come off a bit in recent weeks with back-to-back losses to South Carolina and LSU, Vanderbilt is still headed to its first bowl game since 2018.
And while the offense isn’t setting any records, Pavia has been one of the chief catalysts for Vanderbilt’s newfound success.
Pavia’s passing performance doesn’t light up any box scores, but he’s efficient in his work, helping Vanderbilt rank 44th in Pass Success Rate despite ranking just 14th in the SEC with only 187.1 passing yards per game.
One of Pavia’s best assets has been avoiding killer mistakes, as he has only three interceptions to his 16 touchdown passes.
Where Pavia really does most of his damage, however, is on the ground. He's the team’s leading rusher with 671 yards, which is also the most among all quarterbacks in the SEC.
While Pavia is always a threat to create some magic, the Vanderbilt defense might be in for a bit more of a challenge against Tennessee.
The Vols boast one of the most efficient passing offenses in the nation and could be in for a big day against a Vanderbilt defense that ranks just 108th in Pass Success Rate allowed.
Despite some holes in the secondary, however, Vanderbilt creates just enough Havoc to muddy up games, as the Commodores have kept all six of their last opponents below 30 points.
Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Vanderbilt and Tennessee match up statistically:
Tennessee Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 40 | 72 | |
| Line Yards | 11 | 41 | |
| Pass Success | 13 | 108 | |
| Havoc | 30 | 43 | |
| Finishing Drives | 65 | 105 | |
| Quality Drives | 39 | 63 | |
Vanderbilt Offense vs. Tennessee Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 95 | 2 | |
| Line Yards | 105 | 7 | |
| Pass Success | 44 | 25 | |
| Havoc | 31 | 5 | |
| Finishing Drives | 51 | 5 | |
| Quality Drives | 22 | 2 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 35 | 114 |
| PFF Coverage | 28 | 89 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 23 | 1 |
| Middle 8 | 3 | 89 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.8 (11) | 30.9 (131) |
| Rush Rate | 61% (23) | 61% (22) |
How to Bet My Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Pick
In the era of participation trophies, I think this is a game where everyone can win.
Tennessee’s offensive firepower and run defense is going to be too much for Vanderbilt to overcome outright, but that doesn’t mean it will be a disaster for the Commodores.
Vanderbilt’s offensive style tends to keep it in close games. Four of its five losses were decided by seven points or fewer, and I think the Commodores are capable of mucking things up just enough to keep it tight against the Volunteers.
It may not be the hero’s ending we all want for Pavia, but real ones know that covering is all that matters.
Pick: Vanderbilt +11
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Channel, How to Watch, Streaming, Location, Start Time
| Location: | FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 30 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
Tennessee travels to Nashville on Saturday, Nov. 30 to face Vanderbilt at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Betting Trends
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Weather
