Saturday's college football slate wraps up with some … ACC After Dark (?) when the California Golden Bears host the San Diego State Aztecs.
Okay, maybe it's actually Pac-12 After Dark following this week's news. Or could it technically still be Mountain West After Dark?
However you want to frame it, these two West Coast programs close out the day's games in Berkeley, California, and you can get a head start on this game with my San Diego State vs. Cal prediction.
San Diego State vs Cal Odds, Pick, Prediction
| San Diego St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -110 | 48.5 -112o / -108u | +625 |
| California Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -110 | 48.5 -112o / -108u | -950 |
- San Diego State vs Cal Point Spread: San Diego State +17.5 (-110) · Cal -17.5 (-110)
- San Diego State vs Cal Total: Over/Under 48.5
- San Diego State vs Cal Moneyline: San Diego State +625 · Cal -950
- San Diego State vs Cal Pick: Under 49
San Diego State vs Cal Preview
San Diego State Football
Through two games, it sure looks like the Sean Lewis era is going to need some time to bake at San Diego State.
A 45-14 home win over Texas A&M-Commerce was nice, but reality showed its ugly face last Saturday when the Oregon State Beavers pounded the Aztecs 21-0 in America's Finest City.
SDSU could only muster 179 total yards and had to punt seven times against the Beavers. Maybe Oregon State is a defensive juggernaut, but that performance seems more related to the Aztecs' woeful offense.
Freshman quarterback Danny O'Neil still clearly has some growing pains after completing 11-of-24 passes for 107 yards against Oregon State, and a run game that produced 2.9 yards per carry didn't aid him in that game.
All in all, SDSU ranks 119th in offensive EPA per play, and the on-field results back it up.
The Aztecs are allowing just 17.5 points per game, but Oregon State missed two field goals that obscure that number. The Beavers still had 420 total yards, didn't allow any sacks and didn't turn the ball over, so it's hard to be too complimentary of the SDSU defense.
Cal Football
How about those Golden Bears taking down an SEC team in their own building!?
And yes, Auburn is still an unknown at this point, but Cal's win down south was still impressive, especially when you consider that star running back Jaydn Ott barely played because of injury.
Ott is questionable to suit up against SDSU — along with two wide receivers — so Cal likely won't be at full strength offensively. But it wasn't fully healthy against Auburn, and that didn't seem to phase quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who was excellent with 233 passing yards and two touchdowns.
Mendoza is proving to be an above-average college quarterback, and he already has a favorite target in Nyziah Hunter, who has caught all three of Mendoza's touchdown passes.
However, the Golden Bears have struggled to get much going on the ground, averaging just 2.8 yards per carry. That may correct itself later in the season when Ott is healthy, but it's something to watch for in this game.
Meanwhile, Cal's defense is off to a great start. The Golden Bears are allowing 13.5 points per game, and a big reason why is because they have seven interceptions through two games.
Nohl Williams leads the country with three picks, and had two of the four picks thrown by Auburn QB Payton Thorne.
Cal's secondary is clearly a problem, and its complemented by linebacker Teddye Buchanan, who leads the team with 20 tackles, two sacks, and one forced fumble.
San Diego State vs Cal Prediction
Cal looks to be an average Power Four team (56th in net EPA per play), while San Diego State could be a Mountain West bottom feeder.
Taking the Golden Bears on the spread at -18.5 is tempting, but I can't fully trust Cal's offense since it's struggling to run the ball and could be missing some key players.
That said, I love the under because I can't envision San Diego State having much offensive success. Also, Cal head coach Justin Wilcox usually doesn't care about style points when facing an overmatched opponent. Cal beat UC Davis 31-13 in Week 1 and defeated Idaho 31-17 last year.
Expect the Golden Bears to make life difficult for O'Neil. Also, Cal will likely keep a lot of its offense under wraps before a trip to Florida State next weekend.
Go with the under in San Diego State vs. Cal.
Pick: Under 49 (Play to 47.5)
How to Watch San Diego State vs Cal Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Berkeley, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
San Diego State vs Cal Betting Trends
- San Diego State has received 93% of the bets and 97% of the money.
- The under has taken 62% of the tickets but has generated 92% of the money.
San Diego State vs Cal Weather
