The final week of the regular season is here, which means rivalry week in college football.
Rivalry week begins on Black Friday with a matchup between the Oregon State Beavers (5-6, 1-0 Pac 12) and the Boise State Broncos (10-1, 7-0 MWC) at 12 p.m. ET on Fox. The game will be played in Boise at Albertsons Stadium.
Boise State enters this game as a 19-point favorite on the spread with a 57-point over/under.
The Broncos have played the Beavers twice in the last 8 years and have split the two games against the Beavers, with Oregon State winning their previous matchup in 2022. Can Boise State exact its revenge, or will the Beavers shock the world with a big upset?
Read on for our Oregon State vs Boise State predictions and college football picks.
Oregon State vs Boise State Prediction and Best Bet
- Oregon State vs. Boise State Pick: Boise State -19
My Oregon State vs. Boise State best bet is on the Broncos to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Oregon State vs Boise State Odds
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19 -110 | 57 -110 / -110 | +625 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19 -110 | 57 -110 / -110 | -950 |
- Oregon State vs Boise State Point Spread: Oregon State +19 (-110) · Boise State -19 (-110)
- Oregon State vs Boise State Total: Over/Under 57
- Oregon State vs Boise State Moneyline: Oregon State +625 · Boise State -950
Oregon State vs Boise State Spread and Over/Under Analysis
Oregon State Beavers Betting Preview
Coach Trent Bray is in his first season as the head coach in Corvallis after serving as the Beavers' defensive coordinator and linebackers coach since 2018.
Earning a bowl appearance would be a nice first step for the first-time head coach, but it will not be easy against a tough Boise State team this week. I suspect Bray will enter with a good game plan to try and slow this high-octane Boise State attack.
The Oregon State offense has averaged 24.8 points per game and 395 yards per game of total offense, with Gevani McCoy under center for the most part this season.
Junior quarterback Ben Gulbranson will likely start this week following an impressive performance in an upset win against Washington State a week ago.
The Beavers’ offense lives and dies with the ground game, where the Beavers rank 19th nationally in Rush Success Rate since the pass attack has been weaker, ranking 80th in Pass Success Rate.
Gulbranson may help change that, but he still has a turnover issue, which will hinder this passing attack. They will need to get the ground game running effectively and the passing attack to possess the ball in order to stick around in this game.
The Beavers’ defense has not been good all season long. They allow 29.5 points per game and 394 yards of offense per game. This defense ranks 104th nationally in Success Rate allowed, showing they cannot stop the run or pass this season.
This defense's problem will be stopping the chunk runs. They rank 126th in Rush Explosiveness allowed. They will need to limit this against a Boise State team that has a Heisman hopeful at the running back position.
Boise State Broncos Betting Preview
Coach Spencer Danielson has not disappointed in his first full season as head coach in Boise, with his team poised to make the first expanded College Football Playoff.
He will need to just win out, and he will have his team competing to win it all, potentially with a first-round bye if they continue to handle their business.
This will be one of their last chances to make a statement headed into the postseason.
The Boise State offense has been one of the best offenses in the country, with Ashton Jeanty’s Heisman campaign leading the way for this team. The Broncos average 41.2 points per game on the season.
Jeanty and this ground game rank 41st in Rush Success Rate, but the critical matchup with Oregon State’s defense is that Boise State ranks first in Rush Explosiveness. Jeanty should be able to bounce some runs outside for some massive gains. I expect him to run wild in this one to try and prove the Heisman should be his.
The passing attack has not been great, but quarterback Maddux Madsen has done a great job handling the football, which will be key again in this one if they want to cover the number.
With Boise State’s offense's effectiveness and possession of the ball, the defense has been able to play fresh all season. However, the Broncos allow 23.6 points per game, so there is room for improvement.
The Broncos struggle against the ground game, where they rank 119th in Rush Success Rate allowed, but that never shows its colors when you are playing with a lead in most games.
This defense thrives when it gets the lead and can game plan for the pass. This defense ranks 49th in Havoc, propelling it to +7 in the turnover margin, which will be important against a turnover-happy team in the Beavers.
Oregon State vs Boise State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon State and Boise State match up statistically:
Oregon State Offense vs. Boise State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 22 | 39 | |
| Line Yards | 21 | 30 | |
| Pass Success | 93 | 83 | |
| Havoc | 48 | 18 | |
| Finishing Drives | 71 | 33 | |
| Quality Drives | 13 | 34 | |
Boise State Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 18 | 125 | |
| Line Yards | 40 | 105 | |
| Pass Success | 14 | 121 | |
| Havoc | 9 | 115 | |
| Finishing Drives | 1 | 123 | |
| Quality Drives | 24 | 116 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 81 | 130 |
| PFF Coverage | 98 | 33 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 90 | 83 |
| Middle 8 | 8 | 26 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.4 (103) | 27.6 (79) |
| Rush Rate | 59% (35) | 57% (34) |
Oregon State vs Boise State Pick & Prediction
I suspect this game means a lot for both programs, but I think Boise State has more talent and more on the line than Oregon State does.
While a bowl appearance would be nice, Boise State will look to make the CFP and has a first-time Heisman winner in Boise, so I suspect the Broncos will have this offense firing on all cylinders.
Jeanty will be too much, and a few key turnovers will propel the Broncos to a blowout win.
Pick: Boise State -19
Oregon State vs Boise State Game Info and How To Watch
| Location: | Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID |
| Date: | Friday, Nov. 29 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
Oregon State vs Boise State will be played at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho, on Friday, Nov. 29 at 12 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on FOX.
