The Oregon Ducks (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten) and Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1, 8-1) will go to battle with a Big Ten Championship on the line Saturday night. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on CBS.
Oregon has gone unblemished through 12 regular-season games thus far, surviving an intense one with Ohio State, 32-31, while also escaping Madison with a 16-13 win over Wisconsin just 3 weeks ago.
Penn State, meanwhile, snuck into the Big Ten Championship thanks to Ohio State's 13-10 loss to Michigan in "The Game." The Nittany Lions have one hiccup on their resume — a 20-13 loss to the Buckeyes at home.
PSU head coach James Franklin has struggled mightily in big games like this one, so he's looking to change the narrative Saturday night in Indianapolis.
Oregon enters as a -3.5 favorite with an over/under of 49.5.
Let's take a look at our Oregon vs. Penn State picks and college football predictions for the 2024 Big Ten Championship on Saturday, Dec. 7.
Oregon vs. Penn State Odds, Lines
| Oregon Ducks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 51 -110o / -110u | -178 |
| Penn State Nittany Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 +100 | 51 -110o / -110u | +150 |
- Spread: Oregon -3 · Penn State +3
- Over/Under: 51
- Moneyline: Oregon ML -178 · Penn State ML +150
We were all set for a rematch in Indianapolis for the Big Ten title between Oregon and Ohio State, but the Michigan Wolverines had other plans.
Michigan’s upset win over its arch-rival opened the door for Penn State to sneak into the Big Ten Championship game, where the Nittany Lions will vie for its first Big Ten title since 2016 and a top-two seed in the College Football Playoff.
Oregon looks to win the league in its inaugural season while putting the finishing touches on an undefeated regular season.
The Ducks are a 3.5-point favorite on the spread with a 49.5-point over/under.
We polled our college football staff on their preferences for the side and total in the Big Ten Championship game.
Oregon vs. Penn State Predictions, Best Bets
- Spread: Oregon -3.5
- Over/Under: Under 49.5
Spread Pick for Oregon vs. Penn State
Spread Bet: Oregon -3.5
Our staff has a slight lean toward laying the points with Oregon.
And why wouldn’t they? It’s James Franklin in a big game! He’s 18-24 ATS as an underdog in his coaching career, including 1-16 SU and 5-12 ATS against top-five teams.
He hasn’t beaten a top-five team since October 2016, losing 11 straight during the stretch.
However, the Nittany Lions are stacked.
The Andy Kotelnicki-Drew Allar combination has been lethal. The Lions rank among the top-10 passing attacks in EPA per Dropback and Passing Explosiveness.
Tyler Warren is arguably the nation’s best tight end, generating a whopping 3.1 yards per route run (third nationally among qualified TEs).
That could be a problem for Oregon, which struggled to contain Michigan’s Colstan Loveland earlier this season.
The Ducks’ pass rush is ferocious, but Penn State’s offensive line has held up very well in pass protection. Of greater importance, Allar hasn’t committed a turnover-worthy play in over 100 pressured dropbacks — interceptions are the easiest way to throw you out of this game.
The Lions should easily establish the run behind Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Oregon’s rush defense is surprisingly weak, ranking 80th in EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate allowed.
The Ducks have also struggled to stop power rush concepts, which is Penn State’s bread and butter. That’ll keep Allar out of obvious passing situations, which will help neutralize Oregon’s elite pass rush.
Oregon’s offense is elite, but Penn State’s front seven has fared well against zone-read concepts, which could keep Jordan James at bay.
Do you trust Dillon Gabriel if forced into obvious passing situations? Oregon is not that explosive in the run or pass game, and Gabriel struggles in pressured pockets.
But, again, this feels like the same old story. Penn State has all the talent in the world, and the Lions have several key advantages on paper.
But football isn’t played on paper, and Big Game James continues to fall short every time he gets these opportunities. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happened again.
Over/Under Pick for Oregon vs. Penn State
Over 49.5 | 4 Picks |
Pass | 0 Picks |
Under 49.5 | 7 Picks |
Over/Under Bet: Under 49.5
Our Action PRO Model projects the total closer to 47 than 50.
As such, our college football staff heavily favors the under.
I tend to agree.
Penn State should plan on using a power-concept, rush-heavy game script, creating plenty of methodical drives. The Nittany Lions have pivoted toward a more rush-heavy approach as the season has progressed, sneaking up to 29th nationally in rush rate.
That should churn the clock and limit possessions.
Meanwhile, Gabriel ranks first nationally among qualified quarterbacks in on-target rate, mainly because he lives in the short-to-intermediate part of the field — his seven-yard aDOT ranks 148th among 154 qualified quarterbacks.
Again, the Ducks will probably create more methodical drives than explosive ones. That should churn the clock and limit possessions.
Also, I love both of these secondaries. Oregon ranks fourth nationally in PFF’s Coverage grades, while Penn State ranks 20th. A.J. Harris is a monster CB1 for the Lions.
I suspect these two units can prevent any 70-yard touchdowns.
Finally, these Penn State top-five matchups always tend to be lower-scoring. The Ohio State game earlier this season finished 20-13.
The Lions' game against No. 3 Ohio State last year finished 20-12, and their one against No. 2 Michigan finished 24-15.
