The No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2, 7-2 Big Ten) host the No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers (10-2, 6-2 SEC) in the first round of the College Football Playoff on Saturday, Dec. 21.
Ohio State wants to avenge a disgusting 13-10 regular-season finale loss at home to Michigan with a National Championship run.
Meanwhile, Tennessee is trying to prove itself as an elite collegiate football program under head coach Josh Heupel.
Ohio State enters as a 7.5-point favorite with the over/under at 46.
Check out our Ohio State vs. Tennessee picks and college football predictions for their College Football Playoff game on Saturday, Dec. 21.
Ohio State vs. Tennessee Picks, Predictions
There’s one matchup of the first round of the CFP that pits a Big Ten team against an SEC team in a cold-weather environment.
It’s this one.
When the college football playoff committee announced that the first round of games would be played on college campuses, many considered the idea of a southern team having to travel north to play in the conditions.
The Vols are that team, and they’re set to face off against an Ohio State group that has its fanbase enraged after a fourth consecutive loss to Michigan.
Can the Buckeyes turn the page from that game and come out fired up to make a run in the playoffs? Or will they play tense and cause a restless crowd to turn on them?
Tennessee’s defense has been strong all year, but is young quarterback Nico Iamaleava ready to step up under the lights in a hostile environment on the road?
We polled nine staff members to give their leans on the side and total in this showdown.
We give our thoughts on each below.
Spread
Our Spread Pick: Ohio State -7.5
By Greg Liodice
Ohio State has a chance to redeem itself after Rivalry Week’s debacle.
We all saw what happened after the Buckeyes lost to Michigan. Their fans were totally embarrassed, especially after the infamous flag-planting incident.
Well, our staff seems to believe that Ohio State will redeem itself in a big way, and for fair reason.
Tennessee spent most of its season in Knoxville and rarely traveled outside its comfort zone, going 2-2 on the road this season. In Week 5, the Vols went into Fayetteville and lost to Arkansas. In Week 11, they went into Athens and fell to Georgia.
If this is how Tennessee acts when its back is against the wall, then it’s no wonder we seem to favor the Buckeyes.
Factor in the weather, and it opens the door for Ohio State to pull away with a win by at least one score.
Over/Under
Over 46 | 5 Picks |
Pass | 0 Picks |
Under 46 | 4 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Over 46
By Greg Liodice
When dealing with cold weather games, things can get a little dicey.
As Mike mentioned, this can be a disadvantage for visiting SEC teams, given that they hardly have to face the brutal chill of December in the Midwest.
Regardless, you can bank on both offenses converting at an efficient rate. Both rank in the top 20 nationally in Standard Down offense and the top 15 in Standard Down defense.
However, our staff slightly favors this game going over the allotted total, and I can see why.
Tennessee has hit the over seven times this season and has a weapon in Iamaleava that other programs can only wish to have.
Ohio State may not have hit the over as much this season, but its weapons shouldn’t deter you from backing the Bucks' offense.
Jeremiah Smith has been a machine all season as a true freshman wide receiver and can break through the weakness of the Tennessee secondary. The Vols rank 70th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed, which can open the door for Ohio State's aerial threats.
The remaining percent of our staff wants you to be careful, though. Due to the cold weather and the potential wind gusts, it may be enough to trigger our PRO wind-based system. It’s not guaranteed that we’ll see an offensive explosion.
More Ways to Bet Ohio State vs. Tennessee
Tennessee Team Total Under 18.5 (-115 · Play to 17.5)
Ohio State understands that the only way to make up for its loss to Michigan is to make a run in the playoffs.
As a result, I think you’ll see a monster effort from the Buckeyes on Saturday night, particularly from Jim Knowles’ defense.
The Buckeye defense has been among the best in the country all season, and it has the opportunity to give Nico Iamaleava fits.
Look for Knowles to dial up some pressure early to get after the young quarterback, who has struggled all year when the pocket gets condensed.
Additionally, the Buckeyes have done a good job all year of limiting the big plays, which will force the Volunteers to move the ball methodically down the field.
When Tennessee does get into Buckeye territory, I expect it to struggle to find the end zone and have to settle for field goal attempts.
Ultimately, I think Tennessee will struggle offensively all night, making it very difficult for it to have a chance to win this game.
Jeremiah Smith Anytime Touchdown (+115 · Play to +100)
By Doug Ziefel
The Ohio State Buckeyes are a team that will deploy a balanced offensive attack, but when they throw the ball on the plus side of the field, Will Howard has a clear No. 1 option.
Freshman Jeremiah Smith has been dynamite for the Buckeyes, and he's had a nose for the end zone all season long. Smith has scored in nine of twelve games this season.
His 10 receiving touchdowns are tied for the 10th most in the country, and we can bet that Smith will get his shot at the endzone in this matchup.
Ohio State's ground game will likely struggle against a Tennessee defense that ranks sixth in yards per rush allowed.
So, we should see the Buckeyes throw the ball more than usual. Given that their offense typically starts with good field position, that means more high-value targets for Smith as the offense drives down the field.
Take Smith to score here, as this should not be plus money.
Ohio State vs. Tennessee Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -108 | 46 -112o / -108u | -290 |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -112 | 46 -112o / -108u | +235 |
- Ohio State vs. Tennessee Spread: Ohio State -7.5, Tennessee +7.5
- Ohio State vs. Tennessee: 46
- Ohio State vs. Tennessee Moneyline: Ohio State -290, Tennessee +235
