Northwestern vs. Duke Parlay Picks
- Northwestern Full Game -2.5
- Under 36.5
- 1H Under 17.5
- Northwestern QB Mike Wright Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Parlay Odds: +1112 (FanDuel)
Please remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
It’s fitting that Northwestern and Duke are set to play at Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium on Friday night. The quaint, picturesque 15,000-seat stadium is nestled right on the banks of Lake Michigan.
And you know what can be found just 30 yards from the visiting sidelines? Rocks. Big rocks, little rocks, even smooth rocks that are perfect for skipping stones.
This game between the Wildcats and Blue Devils will be a rock fight, and I have a four-leg same-game parlay to cash in on the old-school slobberknocker set to be televised on FS1.
Let's take a look at my Northwestern vs. Duke same-game parlay for their NCAAF game on Friday, Sept. 6.
SGP Pick #1: Northwestern -2.5
Let’s start with the dysfunctional Duke offense. The Blue Devils scored three points in the first 29 minutes of game action against Elon this past Saturday.
Pro Football Focus graded their entire offensive performance against the Phoenix a 60.5 out of 100, placing them behind offensive juggernauts like Georgia State, Kent State and UMass.
Breaking in four new offensive linemen, Duke was unable to control the line of scrimmage against a middling FCS opponent that was picked to finish sixth in the CAA. The Blue Devils’ 2.2 yards per carry is a red flashing alarm.
With experience in their front seven, including All-Big Ten caliber Xander Mueller at linebacker, Northwestern shoved the defending MAC champs in a locker in Week 1. It allowed just one run of over eight yards the entire game against Miami (OH).
The RedHawks finished with 1.7 yards per carry, and Brett Gabbert was picked off twice.
Aside from sophomore Michael Kilbane, who is a potential star on the edge, the entire NW defense is made up of juniors, seniors and super seniors. They’re well-coached and don’t have any appreciable weaknesses.
That may change when they draw a conference heavyweight like Ohio State, but Duke doesn’t have the kind of superior skill-position talent to break this defense.
SGP Picks #2 & #3: Under 36.5 & 1H Under 17.5
Northwestern games have done under 40 in six of the last eight under head coach David Braun. My only concern in this game is Maalik Murphy’s high "DETMER" score. This is a relatively new metric named after 1990 Heisman winner Ty Detmer.
During his Heisman season, he threw 41 touchdowns and 28 interceptions. If you have a high "DETMER: ranking, it means that you push for big throws and live with turnover-worthy mistakes downfield.
Among Power 4 quarterbacks, Murphy was top-10 on this list (compiled by @SickosCommittee). Given Northwestern’s excellent pass defense, I have faith that the “good” Murphy doesn’t blow up this parlay with a handful of deep completions.
SGP Pick #4: Mike Wright Anytime TD Scorer
Zach Lujan is in his first year as the offensive coordinator in Evanston, and I’ll tell you what I know about the former South Dakota State OC: He loves to run his quarterbacks near the goal line.
In his two years as the OC in Brookings, his quarterbacks crossed the goal line 23 times toting the rock. Northwestern’s starting quarterback, Mike Wright, was the Wildcats’ leading rusher against Miami (OH) and hit pay dirt on the ground.
In his career, he’s scored 11 rushing touchdowns. In goal-to-go situations, you can bank on Lujan dialing up designed quarterback runs for Wright.
