The 3-0 Nebraska Cornhuskers take a relatively short trip in College Football Week 4 to face the 3-0 Illinois Fighting Illini. Nebraska vs. Illinois is live at 8 p.m. ET on FOX on Friday night, with the game streaming on YouTube TV, the FOX Sports app, and other streaming platforms.
Nebraska is a consensus favorite of 9 points over Illinois, meaning the Cornhuskers (-79) are expected to win by just under double-digitsin the latest college football odds. The over/under has come down a bit to 42.5 at most books, although there are still some higher totals to be found in the market. Nebraska is a -355 favorite on the moneyline to win outright, and Illinois is +275 to pull off the upset victory.
According to our NCAAF public betting page, 52% of bets and 58% of the money is now on the Cornhuskers after early money was on Illinois, which is why the spread has moved from Nebraska -7.5 to Nebraska -9. However, only 6% of bets on the moneyline are on the Illini to win outright.
Unfortunately for those Illinois backers, my Nebraska vs. Illinois picks for tonight's same-game parlay feature a bet on the Huskers to cover, plus 3 more predictions, including one on the over/under and two player props. Let's get to my college football picks and predictions for our Friday Night Football parlay in Week 4.
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Predictions, Odds
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -115 | 42.5 -115o / -105u | -370 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -105 | 42.5 -115o / -105u | +270 |
- Illinois vs. Nebraska spread: Nebraska to cover
- Illinois vs. Nebraska over/under: 42.5 points
- Illinois vs. Nebraska moneylines: Nebraska -355, Illinois +275
- Illinois vs. Nebraska pick: Our same-game parlay below
If you didn't lock this one in when Nebraska was -7 or -7.5, you can still tail the parlay at Nebraska -9. I also wouldn't hate betting Illinois to cover if you can get Illinois +9.5 or +10, given how much the line has moved. But at Nebraska -9 or better, let's stick with the Cornhuskers.
Nebraska vs. Illinois Picks
College Football Friday Same-Game Parlay
- Spread pick: Nebraska to cover
- Over/under pick: Under 43.5
- Illinois prop: Luke Altmyer Over 150 Passing Yards
- Nebraska prop: Dylan Raiola Over 250 Passing Yards
Nebraska vs. Illinois Parlay Odds: +550 (BetMGM)
There’s nothing like striking gold on a same-game parlay, and we did just that last week. So why not strike while the iron is hot with an Illinois vs. Nebraska SGP?
I’ve been eyeing this Big Ten meeting since camp, and with the emergence of Dylan Raiola, this game has become that much more appealing.
Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.
Spread
Nebraska -7.5 | Bet to -9
This is probably going to be Nebraska’s toughest test yet.
The Huskers have made waves all season long, and Raiola is playing like the best true freshman in the FBS.
Both of these programs play the game at a high level, but the one aspect in which Nebraska has the advantage is running the ball. The Huskers run the ball with efficiency, standing 35th in Rushing Success Rate against Illinois’ 91st-ranked unit.
Along with that, they have a three-headed monster taking carries in Dante Dowdell, Emmett Johnson and Rahmir Johnson. Whether Illinois' five-man front adapts or fails will be something to keep an eye on.
The Illini do a bang-up job stopping the run, ranking 47th in Rush Defense Success Rate, but two of their opponents were lower-tiered matchups. The only time they played a ranked opponent, they gave up 186 yards rushing and 5.2 yards per carry.
I’m putting more faith in Nebraska than I do in Illinois, and I think history tells us to do the same. Plus, this game being played in Lincoln will only play to the Huskers’ strengths.
Over/Under
Under 43.5 (Bet to 43)
Nebraska offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield made it known that this bout would be a fistfight.
Illinois’ defense allows just 8.7 points per game, while Nebraska gives up only 6.6. Because of that, I can certainly see this game going under.
Both of these teams have faced similar tiered competition, but I think the Illinois defense will get a little more exposed.
However, when both teams have faced off against an opponent of similar stature, the point differential has been less than 20. Nebraska’s game against Colorado was a 28-10 victory, while Illinois’ victory over Kansas came by a score of 23-19.
I can’t see this game being a shootout. Since both of these programs are cut from the same cloth, I predict this to be a chess match.
Illinois Prop
Luke Altmyer Over 150.5 Passing Yards
Luke Altmyer is a fine quarterback who's underrated due to the program he plays for.
He was on his way to having a dynamite season in 2023 until he got hurt in the ninth game of the season. Starting anew in ‘24, Altmyer is picking up where he left off, completing passes at a 69% rate.
I’m also basing this stat on what I’ve seen in his career as a starter. Including this season, Altmyer has thrown for less than 150 yards just once. Ironically, his second-best output of 289 yards came against Nebraska last season.
The Huskers were terrible last season, but the one thing they were good at was defense, which makes that performance more impressive.
Altmyer only has two weapons he frequently targets, though: Zakhari Franklin and Pat Bryant. Both are legitimate options, but no other receiver has more than three receptions.
Knowing Matt Rhule and defensive coordinator Tony White, they’ll look to force Altmyer to look elsewhere.
Nebraska Prop
Dylan Raiola Over 175.5 Passing Yards
If you read my College Football sleepers piece before the season started, you’ll know I was high on Raiola.
I’m aware that he’s probably gotten under the skin of many for his weekly Patrick Mahomes routines, but you can’t deny that the kid has skills.
As a true freshman, Raiola has completed 73% of his passes (eighth in FBS) for five touchdowns, one interception and the 30th-best Passing Downs Explosiveness mark. Additionally, he has the 30th-best passer efficiency rating.
For a team that was an absolute horror show on offense last year, having a true freshman put up numbers like this is astounding.
While I expect this game to be a chess match, I can’t envision a world where Raiola doesn’t reach the 175-yard mark. He’s yet to throw under 180 yards, and he has plenty of options to go to in Isaiah Neyor, Jahmal Banks and Jacory Barney Jr.
Not only that, but the running backs have become a critical part of the passing attack. The Johnson duo has combined for 14 receptions for 125 yards.
Raiola has the options, and he certainly has the skill to take this to at least 175 yards. He’s proven that the lights aren’t too bright for him, so for his first conference game, who’s to say he won’t achieve great things?
Back him for this final leg, and I think he can pay out handsomely.
Parlay Picks:
- Nebraska -7.5, Bet to -9
- Under 43.5
- Luke Altmyer Over 150 Passing Yards
- Dylan Raiola Over 250 Passing Yards
