Minnesota vs North Carolina Parlay
- Omarion Hampton 80+ Alt Rushing Yards (-194) and Anytime Touchdown (-220)
- North Carolina Moneyline (-128)
- Under 52.5 Alt Total (-148)
Parlay Odds: +362 via FanDuel
On Thursday night, the North Carolina Tar Heels head to Minneapolis to take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers on Thursday.
The Tar Heels took the first game of the home-and-home set, 31-13, in Chapel Hill last season behind a 400-yard passing game from Drake Maye.
With Maye and Sam Howell under center, the Tar Heels' quarterback play has been among the best in the country over the past five seasons. That leaves big shoes to fill for Max Johnson and Conner Harrell.
However, having a standout running back like Omarion Hampton will help ease the quarterback transition.
Like North Carolina, Minnesota will also be breaking in a new starting quarterback — New Hampshire transfer Max Brosmer. He should also have a standout back in the backfield in sophomore Darius Taylor, but Taylor may miss this game.
The status of Minnesota's top wideout, Daniel Jackson, is also up in the air. As a result, Hampton and the Tar Heels will be the focus of this same-game parlay.
My Minnesota vs. North Carolina same-game parlay picks are below.
Minnesota vs. North Carolina Odds
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -102 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +106 |
| North Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -128 |
Editor's Note: Thursday's North Carolina vs. Minnesota game has been pushed back to 9 p.m. ET due to potential severe weather, according to Action Network's Brett McMurphy.
Minnesota vs. UNC SGP Pick #1: Omarion Hampton 80+ Alt Rushing Yards (-194) and Anytime TD (-220)
Omarion Hampton was a four-star recruit in North Carolina's 2022 recruiting class. In last season's opener against South Carolina, he was bottled up for just 37 rushing on 16 carries, but he did find the endzone twice. He exploded for 234 yards and three touchdowns the following week against Appalachian State. From that point on, it was clear Hampton would be the lead back in North Carolina's backfield.
Hampton received at least 13 carries in 10 of North Carolina's final 11 games. The lone exception was a three-touchdown loss to rival North Carolina State that pivoted to a pass-heavy game script. Hampton ran for 100 yards in six of UNC's final regular season games and finished with 78 yards in another game in that stretch.
Hampton only ran for 46 yards on 13 carries against Minnesota last season, but also scored and, as mentioned, Maye led the way for the Tar Heels. With Maye now in New England, Hampton figures to be the focal point of UNC's offense, and for good reason. Against Miami, Duke and Clemson — three top-50 run defenses — Hampton ran for 544 yards and five touchdowns. Minnesota finished the year 64th in rushing yards allowed per game.
The 13-carry benchmark also holds some significance here as he averaged 5.9 yards per carry last season. If he maintains that average in the season opener, we're looking at a floor of 78 rushing yards. Given that I expect him to receive closer to 20 carries in this game, 80 yards is very attainable. Additionally, he scored a touchdown in 10 of 13 games last season. While a rushing touchdown would be preferred to benefit the rushing yards, Hampton also had a receiving touchdown in addition to 29 catches.
Minnesota vs. UNC SGP Pick #2: North Carolina Moneyline (-128)
For essentially the past month, Minnesota has been a -2.5-point home favorite. However, line movement has swung in the direction of UNC, likely because of the questionable status for both Darius Taylor and Daniel Jackson. I initially thought UNC had some value as a road underdog, but that was a more of a lean. However, if Minnesota is without its leading rusher and receiver (or if either is limited), I'm willing to take the plunge.
Now, North Carolina is not without question marks. It will be breaking in a new quarterback and replacing four starters on the offensive line. However, size will not be an issue for the group with UNC's projected starting offensive line averaging 6'5 and 318 pounds. Meanwhile, Max Johnson brings experience to the quarterback position after being a starter at both LSU and Texas A&M. Conner Harrell is the more dynamic runner and when he is in, Hampton will benefit with Minnesota's defense having to account for both on the read option.
If Taylor and Jackson are healthy, UNC still has the better skill group overall. In addition to Hampton, UNC returns tight ends Bryson Nesbit and John Copenhaver, who have combined for 109 receptions and 13 touchdowns over the past two seasons. At receiver, the Tar Heels return J.J. Jones, Nate McCollum, Kobe Paysour and Gavin Blackwell, with Jones leading the group with 46 receptions for 711 yards. True freshman Jordan Shipp may be an immediate contributor as well. Defensively, the Tar Heels need to show improvement this season, but 24 points may be enough to win this game.
Minnesota vs. UNC SGP Pick #3: Under 52.5 Alt Total Points (-148)
Omarion Hampton is a go for Thursday's game and if Darius Taylor is in, this game will feature two teams with star running backs and new quarterbacks. Minnesota hopes Max Brosmer is the difference maker he was at New Hampshire, where he threw for 8,713 yards, 70 touchdown passes and earned FCS All-American honors. However, Brosmer didn't push the ball downfield very often. Between this and the expected run-heavy gameplans, the scoring drives in this game will likely be time consuming.
Additionally, the under hit in Minnesota's first three games last season, including a total of 44 points in the matchup in Chapel Hill. Here, we have a total of 50.5 points on the official line. I lean under there as well, but for the parlay, I'll go a bit safer and get past the key number of 52 points.
