One of the best teams in the Group of 5 hopes to keep its slim College Football Playoff hopes alive, as Louisiana and Texas State meet for some Tuesday night Sun Belt action.
The visiting Ragin’ Cajuns (6-1, 3-0 SBC) are yet to drop a conference game this season and even own a 3-point win over Wake Forest in their only game against Power 4 competition.
Texas State (4-3, 2-1) may not have long-shot CFP aspirations, but the Bobcats are still in the thick of the Sun Belt race.
Despite the difference in resume and records, Louisiana opened as a road 'dog of +3.5 with the over/under at 58.5. Will the Ragin' Cajuns keep their perfect conference record intact?
Let's get to my Louisiana vs. Texas State predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, Oct. 29.
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns vs. Texas State Bobcats Prediction
- Louisiana vs. Texas State Pick: Texas State Team Total Over 30.5
My Texas State vs. Louisiana best bet is for Texas State to score over 30.5 points. Find the best line on our live NCAAF odds page.
Louisiana vs. Texas State Odds, Spread, Line
| Louisiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +158 |
| Texas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
- Louisiana vs. Texas State Point Spread: Texas State -4.5
- Louisiana vs. Texas State Over/Under: 60.5 Total Points
- Louisiana vs. Texas State Moneyline: Texas State ML -190 · Louisiana ML +158
Louisiana Football vs. Texas State Football Preview
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Betting Preview: Offense Humming Along
It took a pair of ho-hum seasons to get there, but head coach Michael Desormeaux finally has Louisiana on the precipice of where it stood before Billy Napier left for Gainesville.
The Ragin’ Cajuns have reeled off four straight wins since dropping losing to Tulane and have used one of the more efficient passing offenses in the country to secure bowl eligibility.
Quarterback Ben Wooldridge leads the fourth-best Pass Success offense in the FBS and has completed over 69% of his passes with 15 passing touchdowns.
The offensive line, which has only allowed 23 tackles for loss on the season (fourth-best mark nationally) has been crucial to this offense's success. The line has helped running backs Bill Davis and Zylan Perry each average north of 6.3 yards per carry in Louisiana’s balanced offensive approach.
While the offense has been smooth sailing for the Ragin’ Cajuns, the defense hasn’t been as consistent, ranking outside the top 100 in both Rush Success allowed and Havoc.
Texas State does most of its damage through the air but does have a strong ground game led by Ismail Mahdi that could pose a problem for Louisiana.
One strength of Louisiana's defense is its ability to make teams earn their way down the field. No Sun Belt team has been better at limiting explosive plays than the Ragin’ Cajuns, who have allowed 11 fewer 10-yard-plus plays than the next closest conference foe.
Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview: McCloud Leading the Way
G.J. Kinne needed just one season to take Texas State to its first bowl game and needs just two wins over the Bobcats’ final five games to get his team to another.
The transfer portal is always a gamble when it comes to the quarterback position, but the Bobcats have been one of the big winners in landing James Madison transfer Jordan McCloud.
The reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year has picked up right where he left off and is again leading the conference in passing touchdowns with 20.
McCloud’s 270.1 yards per game is second-best in the Sun Belt and 16th nationally. And led by Joey Hobert’s 499 yards and seven touchdowns, four different Bobcats have over 275 yards receiving and at least three receiving touchdowns.
The Bobs also have a strong ground game. Texas State has rushed for at least 195 yards on four occasions this season and has four players with at least 30 carries who average more than 5.0 yards per carry.
Texas State ranks third in the Sun Belt in overall defense but has struggled to bottle up the run in recent weeks.
Over the past four games, the Bobcats have allowed 181 yards rushing per game, including a disastrous outing against Sam Houston in which the Bearkats rushed for 298 yards and five touchdowns.
Texas State vs. Louisiana Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas State and Louisiana match up statistically:
Louisiana Offense vs. Texas State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 46 | 53 | |
| Line Yards | 36 | 90 | |
| Pass Success | 4 | 31 | |
| Havoc | 5 | 29 | |
| Finishing Drives | 25 | 42 | |
| Quality Drives | 5 | 68 | |
Texas State Offense vs. Louisiana Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 68 | 127 | |
| Line Yards | 18 | 98 | |
| Pass Success | 15 | 57 | |
| Havoc | 24 | 119 | |
| Finishing Drives | 97 | 107 | |
| Quality Drives | 69 | 87 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 97 | 41 |
| PFF Coverage | 30 | 96 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 46 | 113 |
| Middle 8 | 90 | 65 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.2 (125) | 25.9 (39) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (55) | 52% (72) |
How to Bet My Louisiana vs. Texas State Pick
Tuesday marks the fourth game in five weeks that Louisiana has to play on the road, but that’s proved to be anything but an obstacle. The Ragin’ Cajuns are a perfect 4-0 straight up away from home and 3-1 ATS.
Texas State, however, is the best Sun Belt team Louisiana has faced this season, and I’m not sure the Ragin’ Cajuns will be able to slow the Bobcats offense.
McCloud is putting together another league-leading season, and if Louisiana devotes too many resources to slowing him, Texas State’s running game is talented enough to expose its weakness in the front seven.
This game feels like a coin-flip, so I'll focus on the most certain aspect of this matchup — the Bobcats offense — and back the home side to score at least 31 points for the fourth time in five games.
Pick: Texas State Team Total Over 30.5
Louisiana vs. Texas State Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | UFCU Stadium, San Marcos, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, Oct. 29 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Louisiana will travel to San Marcos, Texas, on Oct. 29 to face Texas State at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Louisiana vs. Texas State Betting Trends
- 52% of bets and 55% of the money are on Texas State to cover the spread
- 85% of bets and 22% of the money on the moneyline are on Texas St to win outright
- 68% of bets and 93% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Louisiana vs. Texas State Weather
