New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction, Picks, Odds, How to Watch for College Football Week 2
The Liberty Flames and New Mexico State Aggies open Conference USA play on Saturday with a rematch of the championship game a season ago.
The Flames won the CUSA crown last season by topping the Aggies in a 49-35 affair, which capped off a perfect debut campaign in the league.
Meanwhile, NMSU was also impressive in the school’s first season in Conference USA, but the program had a lot of turnover in the offseason.
There were a lot of points in the previous matchup, and I’m expecting a similar output for one team to give us the best bet in this Liberty and New Mexico State matchup.
Let's dive into my Liberty vs. New Mexico State prediction, picks and odds for Saturday, Sept. 7 below.
Liberty vs New Mexico State Pick, Prediction
- Liberty vs New Mexico State Prediction & Picks: Liberty Team Total Over 39.5
My Liberty vs New Mexico State best bet is on the Flames team total, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Liberty vs New Mexico State Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | -2000 |
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | +1000 |
- Liberty vs New Mexico State Point Spread: Liberty -22 (-110) · New Mexico State +22 (-110)
- Liberty vs New Mexico State Total: Over/Under 54
- Liberty vs New Mexico State Moneyline: Liberty -2000 · New Mexico State +1000
Liberty Football vs New Mexico State Football Preview
Liberty Flames Betting Preview: Plenty of Production Returns
When head coach Jamey Chadwell made the jump from Coastal Carolina to Liberty, many thought this was a head-scratching move. However, Chadwell is proving he made the right decision.
He has guided the Flames to a program-record 13 straight wins in regular-season games to go along with a 45-7 coaching record since the start of 2020.
The strength of the squad returned for another season with the duo of Kaidon Salter and Quinton Cooley back on offense. The two were also the key contributors in the opening win over Campbell.
Salter, the CUSA Preseason Player of the Year, accounted for 290 yards and threw for a pair of touchdowns. Meanwhile, Cooley picked up the eighth 100-yard rushing game of his career and added a score.
The combination of those dynamic playmakers and Chadwell’s offensive system made Liberty unstoppable last season. With how easy the schedule is again for the Flames, I’m expecting another strong campaign.
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview: All New Everything
Thanks to former head coach Jerry Kill, New Mexico State’s past two seasons have been two of the best in program history. He guided the Aggies to back-to-back bowl games and reached double-digit wins in a season for the first time since 1960.
In order for this success to continue, it will not come under Kill’s leadership, as he stepped down as coach in the offseason. There were also changes across the board with both coordinators also leaving with Kill.
The school elected to hire from within for Kill’s replacement, giving the job to former UNLV head coach Tony Sanchez. His new offensive coordinator was also on the NMSU staff last season, but he hired former Sam Houston defensive coordinator Joe Morris to coach the defense.
Another big loss following the 2023 campaign was the departure of star quarterback Diego Pavia. With all of his receivers and the team’s top running back also gone, Sanchez has his work cut out for him to duplicate the recent success at the school.
<span >How to Make College Football Picks For Liberty vs New Mexico State</span>
Ultimately, there's a massive mismatch on paper when comparing the returning production and continuity of these two teams. So, we just need to find the best way to back Liberty.
With that said, I believe the best route to take is to take the Flames to fly over their team total of 39.5, which I would play up to 41.5. I would also look at some player props for their key rushers once they're released later in the week.
We touched on who the Aggies lost on offense, but I believe the issues are just as bad on the other side of the ball. NMSU returns only three starters from 2023, which translates to losing the top eight tacklers from that squad.
When you break it down by position, the Aggies no longer have three All-CUSA defensive linemen, their top linebacker and eight of their nine defensive backs. This is not good against a powering Liberty rushing attack.
Another issue I see is the fact that the Flames are still stout up front on defense. I have confidence Liberty can shut the run game down, which could lead to many punts and low time of possession — bad news for a team that has to establish the run game like NMSU.
Chadwell’s offense has topped this same number in seven of its last eight regular-season contests, and I like the unit to do the same in this matchup.
New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction: Liberty Team Total Over 39.5 (Play to 41.5)
<span >How to Watch Liberty vs New Mexico State: Streaming, Channel, Time</span>
| Location: | Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 7 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
New Mexico State vs Liberty Betting Trends
- New Mexico State has taken 95% of the bets and 94% of the money.
- The under has landed 88% of the tickets but only 83% of the cash.
New Mexico State vs Liberty Weather
