The Pittsburgh Panthers look to start the 2024 season with a tune-up victory, as they host Kent State.
Both teams enter the season hoping to improve upon poor 2023s.
Kent State finished Kenni Burns' debut season with a 1-11 record and were considered to be among the worst teams in the FBS.
Pitt is coming off of a 3-9 season, including a 2-6 record in conference. That was, by far, Pat Narduzzi's worst season during his nine-year tenure with the Panthers and was only his third season not making a bowl game.
At kickoff, temperatures will be around 81 degrees, and winds from 5.4 to 5.8 mph will cross the field. Rain is unlikely, so the weather isn't expected to impact scoring.
Here's a Kent State vs. Pittsburgh prediction.
Kent State vs Pitt Prediction
- Kent State vs. Pitt Pick: Under 55.5
My Kent State vs. Pitt best bet is on the under with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Kent State vs Pitt Odds
| Kent State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+24 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +1100 |
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-24 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -2500 |
- Kent State vs Pitt Point Spread: Kent State +24 (-110) · Pitt -24 (-110)
- Kent State vs Pitt Total: Over/Under 55.5
- Kent State vs Pitt Moneyline: Kent State +1100 · Pitt -2500
Kent State vs Pitt Preview
Kent State Golden Flashes Betting Preview: Among the Worst Teams in College Football
To say that Burns' first season at the Kent State head coach left something to be desired would be a severe understatement.
The Golden Flashes went 1-11 with their only win coming against Central Connecticut State. They ranked last in the nation with just 14.7 points per game and second worst with 4.3 yards per play.
The Golden Flashes are expected to roll out a combination of Devin Kargman and Tommy Ulatowski at quarterback to start the season. The two have combined for 242 career passes attempts with neither being overly prolific.
In 2023, the two completed an average of 50.3% of their passes for 6.47 yards per attempt. While player growth is certainly possible, neither showing enough separation from the other is far from a positive indicator that this passing attack will improve significantly after finishing with just 164.5 passing yards per game.
The team's leading rusher from 2023, Gavin Garcia, suffered a knee injury during camp and will miss the 2024 season. The team will now have to rely on Ky Thomas and Curtis Douglas to handle the load.
Thomas is the more experienced of the two, with 219 rush attempts over the last three seasons, including an 824-yard season at Minnesota as a true freshman. The team hopes to improve its 32% Rush Success Rate, which was at the bottom of college football.
If the offense was putrid in 2023, the defense was a step up by being very bad. They ranked 122nd nationally by allowing 34.6 points per game and 95th with 6.0 yards per attempt. They allowed 214.5 passing yards and 176.1 rushing yards per game.
While the 214.5 passing yards allowed correlates with their opponent's 41% passing rate, this appears to be more of a game script factor rather than being successful. They allowed 8.15 yards per attempt and 4.6 yards per rush.
Pittsburgh Panthers Betting Preview: Changes For Narduzzi
After their worst season under head coach Pat Narduzzi, Pitt will look to bounce back and start the season off with a win.
And as a four score favorite, a win should be expected.
In 2023, the Panthers averaged 20.2 points per game and 5.3 yards per play while allowing 27.3 points per game.
The team's passing was led by Christian Veilleux in 2023, but Veilleux transferred to Georgia State in the offseason. Now, the Panthers enter 2024 without a clear starting quarterback, as Eli Holstein and Nate Yarnell are expected to get opportunities to play early.
Neither option has played significantly during their careers as Yarnell has just 76 career pass attempts and Holstein hasn't attempted a college pass, to date.
The team's run game is expected to heavily feature a duo of Rodney Hammond Jr, who led the team in rushing in 2023, and Western Carolina transfer Desmond Reid.
The 50/50 split between rushing and passing from 2023 may trend more to the run with an unproven passer, so it will be crucial for the Panthers to improve upon their 3.4 yards per attempt from last season. Hammond averaged 4.6 yards per attempt in 2023 while sharing the lead role with C'Bo Flemister.
While the defense was the strength of Pittsburgh in 2023, it was still a slightly below average unit nationally. The unit allowed 27.3 points per game, 5.4 yards per play, and allowed a 39% Success Rate.
But they were also hit hard by the transfer portal, as two of the team's top 10 tacklers exited the team in the Spring portal. This could impact them even more as the team was stronger against the run than the pass in 2023 with a 42% Pass Success Rate allowed (76th nationally) to just 38% Rush Success Rate allowed (32nd).
Kent State vs Pitt Pick & Prediction
As of this writing, 86% of bets are on Kent State to cover, but only 40% of the money is backing the underdog. This, along with the PRO report showing large money bets on Pitt, indicate that sharper bettors are favoring a big win for Pitt in the season opener.
However, I'm more inclined to look at the total in this game.
The total opened at 52.5 and has moved to 55.5 at most books. While sharp bettors and big money bets have moved early on the over, I'm more inclined to agree with the Action Network PRO projection favoring the under.
With unproven quarterbacks under center for the favorite, I'm anticipating a rush-heavy game script, helping to keep the clock moving and scoring down.
Despite the transfers from Pitt's defense, I expect talent to triumph against one of college football's worst offenses.
Pick: Under 55.5 (Play to 54.5)
- Bet Kent State vs Pitt with the latest BetMGM bonus code.
How to Watch Kent State vs Pitt Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, Aug. 31 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPNU |
Kent State vs Pitt Betting Trends
- A whopping 87% of the bets are coming on Kent State, but over half of the handle is with the Panthers.
- While Pitt went just 4-8 against the spread last year, the Panthers went 4-2 ATS at home.
- Kent State was among the worst FBS teams last season, finishing the year 1-11 straight up and 3-8-1 ATS, including 1-5-1 ATS on the road and 2-8-1 ATS as an underdog.
