The Iowa State Cyclones (5-4) take on the TCU Horned Frogs (6-2) in Fort Worth, Texas. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
TCU is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -290. Iowa State, meanwhile, comes into the game as a +7 underdog and is a +235 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 57.5 total points.
Here’s my Iowa State vs. TCU prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 8.
Iowa State vs TCU Prediction, Preview
- Iowa State vs. TCU Pick: 1H Over 28
My TCU vs. Iowa State best bet is on both teams to go over the first-half total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Iowa State vs TCU Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +235 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -290 |
- Iowa State vs TCU Spread: TCU -7, Iowa State +7
- Iowa State vs TCU Over/Under: 57.5 Points
- Iowa State vs TCU Moneyline: Iowa State +235, TCU -290
Iowa State vs TCU College Football Betting
Iowa State Cyclones Betting Preview: Key Injuries and Inconsistent Offense
A hot Iowa State start has since fizzled into a disappointing October.
The Cyclones started 5-0 with wins over rivals Kansas State and Iowa, but they have since dropped four in a row, including a game at Colorado, which was outscored, 105-24, since.
A bye week sits on the horizon, but a three-game stretch of BYU, Arizona State and now at TCU looms large.
Iowa State's offense has sputtered the last four games, and its shorthanded defense reared an ugly head last week.
The offense hasn't been spectacular — it turns out, losing two NFL-caliber receivers and 2,000 yards along with them this offseason has its side effects — and when the run game doesn't get going, it's downright bad.
To make matters worse, top tight end and team targets leader Benjamin Brahmer was carted off the field after a scary injury last week. Iowa State loves using 13 personnel, and losing its top tight end is a significant problem.
Despite being without both starting cornerbacks for the remainder of the season, Iowa State's biggest problems on defense are tackling and a lack of a pass rush.
As a result, teams have been able to have some pretty big days on the ground, namely Cincinnati (260 rushing yards) and Arizona State, as quarterback Jeff Sims had over 220 rushing yards himself.
It's just been a mediocre season from Iowa State with a so-so offense and a defense that can, at times, be really bad.
Three of its five wins this year have come by one score (including at 5-4 Arkansas State… not sure what anyone was thinking scheduling that one), and three one-score losses in the last four games evened that out.
The Cyclones are a team that's neither all that good nor all that bad, and also suffering from injuries at key positions.
I'm fairly concerned about the state of this team, especially without Brahmer.
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview: Strength on Offense, Vulnerable in the Secondary
TCU finally got to take a breath following a run of seven straight games, six against Power Conference foes and five against the Big 12.
The Horned Frogs made it through the gauntlet rather unscathed, but a 13-point loss to Kansas State hangs heavy over their Big 12 hopes.
TCU even finished its run strong, winning three of its last four, including over rival Baylor and securing a win at West Virginia — something not many recent TCU teams have done.
But the race to the finish line is arduous. TCU's remaining opponents after this week (BYU, Houston and Cincinnati) are a combined 22-4 and 14-3 in Big 12 play.
Running back Kevorian Barnes has provided a spark to the TCU run game, but he was largely absent from the West Virginia game. It wasn't explained publicly, but Barnes sat out most of the second half after recording eight carries and 27 yards.
Through the air, force-feeding the ball to Eric McAlister has produced some pretty good results.
Quarterback Josh Hoover targeted McAlister 18 times last week alone for nine connections and 124 yards. McAlister averaged 132.2 yards per game and scored eight touchdowns in his last five games played, resulting in a 4-1 record by TCU.
Game-changer, indeed.
Defensively, the Horned Frogs aren't elite, but they're just good enough to notch wins.
The biggest vulnerability of the unit is the secondary, which has allowed 19 30-plus yard plays this season (fifth-most in the Big 12).
Top cornerback Avery Helm has largely been absent from the lineup this year — his only real full game contribution came on just 42 snaps in Week 9 — as he battles injury. Helm would be a huge addition to this secondary.
TCU's pass rush is also rather ineffective against better offensive lines.
This season looks to be similar to last: a nice year with plenty of wins but no run at the conference championship game or College Football Playoff. If fans are satisfied with 8-4 or 9-3 and a trip to the New Mexico Bowl again, then this team is for you.
But given TCU's ceiling under Gary Patterson (2022 was the anomaly of all anomalies), the calls for upgrading from Sonny Dykes may become louder this offseason.
Iowa State vs TCU Pick, Best Bet
TCU opened as a -3 favorite at home and was bet up heavily to -7. The over/under also grew from 54.5 to 57.5.
The Horned Frogs have a double rest advantage here, playing both off a bye (Iowa State played at home last week) and at home. It's a preferable situation to be in.
But here we meet TCU's mortal enemy: being a home favorite.
Since 2015, the Frogs are 22-30-1 against the spread as a home favorite. Though this year's group is 3-0 ATS in that spot, the Colorado game featured an astounding backdoor cover, and TCU nearly blew the entire game to Baylor.
This season, Iowa State has been a good first-half team. The Cyclones led BYU, 24-17, at the half before falling to a 41-27 final, and led, 10-7, at the half against Colorado before falling apart there.
Aside from a flash fry against Cincinnati, first halves have been kind to Iowa State.
TCU, too, has been a team hot out of the gates all year. It raced to a 17-0 lead early over Arizona State, a 21-10 halftime lead over Baylor and a 20-7 halftime lead over West Virginia.
But second halves have been a major struggle for both squads.
Rather than sweat out two teams that want to give the lead away late, I'm targeting a first-half over to capitalize on early and fast scoring.
Broken plays and turnovers are familiar territory for both teams in 2025, and both have playmakers on the field. I'm looking for both to take center stage early on this Saturday.
Pick: 1H Over 28
Iowa State vs TCU Betting Trends
