The No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (8-1, 6-1 SEC) host the No. 10 Texas Longhorns (7-2, 4-1 SEC) in a top-10 SEC college football showdown on Saturday, Nov. 15, at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Georgia has won 5 games in a row and is coming off a 41-21 victory over Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have had a penchant for starting slow and coming back late, which is something to watch out for in this one.
Texas, meanwhile, has rebounded after a relatively slow start to the season. The Longhorns suffered a 14-7 loss to No. 1 Ohio State to begin the season and then fell to Florida, 29-21, just a few weeks later.
However, they've rattled off 4 straight wins, including a victory over then-No. 6 Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry and a home win over then-No. 9 Vanderbilt.
So, where does the value lie in this one? Let's dive into our Georgia vs. Texas picks and college football predictions for Week 12 on Saturday, Nov. 15.
Georgia vs. Texas Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Texas +6.5
Despite a brutal start to the season, Texas remains alive in the College Football Playoff race. However, every game is a must-win. Is this where we see the legend of Arch Manning start to form?
He’s had some bad games for sure, most notably against UTEP, but his last two games have been quietly very good. He has thrown six touchdowns with zero turnover-worthy plays and a PFF grade around 84 over that stretch.
This could be key against a Georgia team that's surprisingly vulnerable through the air.
Gone are the days of the Dawgs suffocating teams with a terrifying pass rush and smothering coverage. UGA ranks 97th in PPA/Pass allowed, while UT comes in at 35th in PPA/Pass.
The Longhorns rank 21st in PFF Passing grade, and Arch ranks 26th in PFF offensive grade among qualifying quarterbacks. So, while he hasn’t lived up to the hype as the greatest recruit in college football history, he has shown solid progression in his first year as a starter.
Almost like he's a young college quarterback… weird. Believe it or not, before the era of NIL and Instagram, a quarterback in his first season as a starter wasn't immediately expected to be a Heisman contender.
But I think this is where we see Manning make his first statement game. Georgia’s defense is vulnerable, and I think head coach Steve Sarkisian is going to test it downfield. The question is, can Arch make the step in a critical game?
It may be the last name, but I think he can. We'll take the Longhorns to cover the spread behind a breakout game from Manning.
Georgia vs. Texas Over/Under Pick
Over 49.5 | 2 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 49.5 | 5 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 49.5
A high-stakes SEC game calls for an under bet by the Action Network staff, with a clear lean on the Longhorns and Bulldogs to fall short of 48.5 points.
Despite allowing 69 combined points in the last two SEC games, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian’s defense is regarded as one of the best in the Power 4.
The Longhorns give up 4.4 yards per play and the defense travels, ranking 18th nationally in YPP allowed on the road.
Trust Texas’ defense to contain Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton and force him to beat the Longhorns through the air.
Texas’ front seven and pass rush are some of the best in the country — the Longhorns are tied with Texas A&M for the most sacks (33) in the country.
In the four games Stockton has been held to 21 yards or fewer on the ground, the game has gone under the total; in the other five games he has surpassed that mark, the over has gone 4-0-1.
Saturday’s total is awfully high for a night game in Athens between two teams that rank 33rd and 52nd in yards per play.
Texas just played two of the easiest defenses in the conference and now has a step up in a tough environment. Take the under in Week 12.
Georgia vs. Texas Odds
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
- Georgia vs. Texas Spread: Georgia -6.5, Texas +6.5
- Georgia vs. Texas Over/Under: 49.5
- Georgia vs. Texas Moneyline: Georgia ML -250, Texas +200
