The No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers (8-1, 5-1 SEC) head to Athens on Saturday night to take on the No. 11 Georgia Bulldogs (7-2, 5-2) in a game with massive postseason implications. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Tennessee is coming off a 33-14 victory over Mississippi State. The Vols have rattled off 4 wins in a row after suffering their only loss to the season at Arkansas on Oct. 5.
Georgia, meanwhile, lost to Ole Miss, 28-10, in Oxford its last time out. The Dawgs have lost 2 games in SEC play, making this a pivotal matchup for their College Football Playoff hopes.
Read on for our staff's Georgia vs. Tennessee picks and college football predictions for this key clash on Saturday, Nov. 16.
Georgia vs. Tennessee Odds
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 47.5 -105o / -115u | -350 |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -115 | 47.5 -105o / -115u | +275 |
- Georgia vs. Tennessee Spread: Georgia -8.5 · Tennessee +8.5
- Georgia vs. Tennessee Over/Under: 47.5 Points
- Georgia vs. Tennessee Moneyline: Georgia -350 · Tennessee +275
College GameDay, football fans and bettors get a treat Saturday of Week 12 when No. 6 Tennessee takes on No. 11 Georgia for a night game in Athens.
Josh Heupel’s fast-paced Vols sit at 8-1 on the season. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava left last week’s win in Mississippi State, putting Tennessee in a tough spot ahead of a daunting environment and challenge.
Georgia, meanwhile, is essentially facing a do-or-die situation; after losing last week to Ole Miss — Georgia’s second loss of the season — the Bulldogs face an uphill battle as they attempt to avoid the dreaded third loss that would almost surely dash to their postseason hopes.
Georgia comes in at No. 4 in Collin Wilson’s Betting Power Ratings (95) — three spots and four points higher in his ratings than Tennessee (No. 7, 91).
So, where does the betting value lie for this colossal SEC showdown? We polled 12 members of our college football staff, and they dished out their picks for Saturday's spread and over/under — as well as a player prop and team total.
Georgia vs. Tennessee Picks, Predictions
Georgia vs. Tennessee Spread
Our Spread Pick: Georgia -10
Both Georgia and Tennessee sit high atop the SEC standings, but neither team is lighting it up against the spread.
High expectations come with lofty goals in the spread market. Frankly, the Volunteers and Bulldogs aren’t catching anyone by surprise.
Tennessee’s just 5-4 against the spread, while Georgia’s been one of the worst in the country at 2-7.
Georgia’s laying nine points at home in a night game Saturday, off a loss. According to our researcher Evan Abrams, the Bulldogs are 9-6 ATS the game after a loss under head coach Kirby Smart, including 11-1 SU and 7-5 ATS when listed as a favorite.
That's where our staff sees value.
Action PRO models give a slight nod to Georgia, making the Dawgs closer to -11. The Ranked Matchups PRO System also lends the edge to Georgia, banking on top-25 teams at certain spread thresholds.
The last 20 times an SEC night game has featured two top 25 teams, the home side is 15-5 ATS.
We're taking the Dawgs here to pick up a much-needed win against a Tennessee team that's struggling to figure things out at the moment.
Georgia vs. Tennessee Over/Under
Over 47.5 | 3 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 47.5 | 8 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 47.5
Saturday’s Tennessee vs. Georgia over/under marks the second-lowest total for the Volunteers this season and third-lowest for the Bulldogs.
Had Tennessee and Kentucky combined for one fewer point in Tennessee’s 28-18 win two weeks ago, the Vols would be aiming for seven straight unders.
PRO Projections are shaded to the under, submitting a number below the key number of 48 (47). That's where our staff wants to attack this total.
The money vs. tickets numbers forecast potential insights into how many points will be produced: While overall betting slips have landed on the over, the total handle — or dollars wagered — reflects 90% of the money on the under.
Don’t let the Vols’ uptempo blueprint and knack for splash plays overshadow what’s been an incredible defense under Josh Heupel. The Volunteers may boast one of the most underrated defenses from a market perspective, ranking top-five nationally in Quality Drives, Finishing Drives, Havoc and Rush Success allowed.
There’s a stark contrast in pace of play — Tennessee is No. 14 in seconds per play, Georgia No. 82 — that could play in the Bulldogs’ favor as a two-score favorite.
Don't be surprised if Georgia slows this game down enough to cash the under.
More Ways to Bet Georgia vs. Tennessee
Dylan Sampson Anytime Touchdown (-135 · Play to -150)
By Alex Hinton
Playoff positioning will be on the line when Tennessee and Georgia square off in Athens.
With two top-20 scoring defenses squaring off, points figure to be at a premium. However, one player I like to find the end zone is Tennessee running back Dylan Sampson.
Sampson has run for 100 yards in each of his last five games and in eight of his nine games this season. He's averaging 5.6 yards per carry and ranks seventh in the FBS with 1,129 rushing yards.
What Sampson does even more than run for 100 yards is score touchdowns. He has found the end zone in every game this season and leads the FBS with 20 rushing touchdowns.
Sampson has a tough assignment this week against a Georgia defense that's 21st in rushing yards allowed and 13th in rushing touchdowns given up. However, it has surrendered a rushing touchdown in five of its last six games.
If Sampson scores this week, he may do it more than once.
He has scored two or more touchdowns in seven of his nine games this season. He's +390 at DraftKings to score 2+ touchdowns. He's also +100 to score at FanDuel if you want to use its 50% profit boost for this game.
Georgia Team Total Under 27.5 (Play to 27)
This Georgia offense is flat-out broken right now.
The offensive line can't protect quarterback Carson Beck, and when he’s under pressure, he’s been extremely loose with the football.
The Ole Miss defense stifled Georgia from start to finish last Saturday, and I don’t see much getting better against a very formidable Tennessee defense.
The Volunteers are also stout against the run, so it’s not like Georgia can just hand the ball off and get big chunks on the ground. In fact, top running back Trevor Etienne has already been ruled out for Saturday due to injury.
I also expect this to be a lower-scoring game in general, as Tennessee will likely turn to its own running game with some uncertainty around Nico Iamaleava’s status.
That will lead to longer possessions and less time for Beck and the Bulldogs offense to put up points.
All of these factors make it very difficult for me to see a path for Georgia to score 28-plus against a really solid defense. Give me the Dawgs' team total under.
