The FCS Playoffs are upon us.
I came through with three picks for the opening round, including bets for Central Connecticut State vs. Rhode Island, New Hampshire vs. South Dakota State and Drake vs. South Dakota.
Let's dive into my FCS Playoffs picks and college football predictions for Saturday's FCS games on Saturday, Nov. 29.
Central Connecticut State vs Rhode Island Pick
| Central Connecticut State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +950 |
| Rhode Island Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -1700 |
Central Connecticut State has had a nice season in the NEC this year, but the Blue Devils were far from dominant in a weak conference, and the defense struggled to put teams away at times.
The defense allowed 4.5 yards per carry on the ground this season, and at times, the secondary gave up explosives in the pass game.
CCSU is balanced offensively, as quarterback Brady Olson threw for 2821 yards and 23 touchdowns this season.
I expect CCSU to score a few points here in this one, but the offensive line is a bit undersized and could surrender some negative plays and sacks against the Rhode Island front seven here.
Rhode Island quarterback Devin Farrell threw for over 3,000 yards this season, and the ground game was explosive with Antwain Littleton Jr. averaging over five yards per carry with 11 touchdowns on the season.
Rhode Island will be able to move it against CCSU and should score a bunch of points.
In the second half, Rhode Island should be able to control the line of scrimmage and feast in the trenches both ways.
This game might be competitive for a half, but URI should pull away and win this one by at least three touchdowns. I'll lay it here in what should be a higher scoring game.
Pick: Rhode Island -19.5
New Hampshire vs South Dakota State Pick
| New Hampshire Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +350 |
| South Dakota State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
Brookings is calling for 6-11 inches of snow between tonight and tomorrow, so we're going to see frigid temperatures and some wind, which will undoubtedly impact this matchup.
The Jackrabbits offense is going to go run-heavy here, as starting quarterback Chase Mason still hasn't returned from injury and replacements Luke Marble and Jack Henry have been largely ineffective.
The Jacks' passing game is a far cry from what we've seen in previous seasons with a significantly less talented skill-position corps.
The UNH defense has been strong against the pass this year, allowing just a 60% completion percentage with seven passing touchdowns. The Wildcats' front did a decent job of generating pressure this season, securing 22 sacks and 60 tackles for loss.
They should be able to limit the explosiveness for SDSU in this game. And while the Jacks will be able to run the ball efficiently, we shouldn't see many big plays.
The Jackrabbits are going to overwhelm UNH in the trenches here fairly convincingly.
SDSU allowed just 3.7 yards per carry on the ground this season and registered 31 sacks — impressive numbers when playing against Missouri Valley level competition.
I imagine that UNH is going to struggle to move it here and should end many possessions with punts. SDSU has an excellent red-zone defense that routinely forces opponents to settle for field goals or come away empty-handed.
We should get a slow-paced game full of run plays. The weather is going to be bad, which will make for a fun watch, but we won’t see a lot of scoring. Go low.
Pick: Under 43.5
Drake vs South Dakota Pick
| Drake Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +850 |
| South Dakota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -1400 |
We saw this game play out earlier in the regular season when Drake went to the Dakota Dome and lost to South Dakota, 42-21. The Coyotes were up, 42-7, before taking the fourth quarter off.
USD completely dominated in the trenches and created a ton of negative plays and tackles in the Drake backfield. The 'Yotes have a major trench advantage against the non-scholarship Pioneer Football League representative and should stifle the run game as they did in their last matchup.
I'm not confident in the Drake receivers getting open on third-and-long and creating space to make tough catches.
Meanwhile, the South Dakota offense found its rhythm about halfway through the season after a stretch of embarrassing losses.
The 'Yotes led by running back L.J. Phillips Jr, whose numbers are eye-popping: 1,556 rushing yards, 6.2 yards per carry and 15 touchdowns.
But even more stunning, and a credit to the exceptional play of the offensive line, is that Phillips has been tackled in the backfield for negative yardage just nine times this entire season.
This offensive line is really playing well and has now had a week off to rest and get ready for the playoffs.
I just don’t see how Drake can compete here for four quarters. Without having scholarship athletes, the PFL representative is at a severe disadvantage in the trenches, and we should see that play out with Drake trying to run and stop the run here.
I expect USD to run the ball for eight yards per carry or so, and there won't be much that Drake can do to stop it.
On the other side, the Bulldogs will struggle to get much going offensively, and they won't be able to run the ball effectively. This game should be a blowout, and I'm going to lay it with the 'Yotes.
Pick: South Dakota -20.5
Other FCS Playoffs Predictions
- Yale 31, Youngstown State 29 (Youngstown State +4)
- Villanova 27, Harvard 24 (Villanova +2.5)
- Abilene Christian 34, Lamar 13 (Abilene Christian -13.5)
- SELA 33, Illinois State 24 (SELA -3.5)
- Tennessee Tech 33, North Dakota 31 (Tennessee Tech +1.5)
