If you like wild, fun, and entertaining games, North Texas (6-4) is must watch TV.
The Mean Green are averaging 35.6 points per game and allowing 35.7 points per game. Their games average 71.3 total points per game, and they have reached 75 points in four of the last five games.
Unfortunately for the Mean Green, they have also lost four of their last five games. Now, they must win one of their final two games to secure a bowl appearance.
East Carolina (6-4) secured a bowl bid with its win last week against Tulsa, marking its fourth win in a row.
After firing head coach Mike Houston on October 20 after a Week 8 loss to Army, the Pirates have turned things around and are 3-0 with defensive coordinator Blake Harrell as the interim head coach.
North Texas is a 3-point favorite on the spread with a 72.5-point over/under.
So, where does the betting value lie? Read more for my East Carolina vs. North Texas predictions and college football picks.
East Carolina vs North Texas Prediction
- East Carolina vs North Texas Pick: East Carolina ML
My East Carolina-North Texas best bet is on the Pirates moneyline, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
East Carolina vs North Texas Odds
| E. Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 72.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 72.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
- East Carolina vs North Texas Point Spread: East Carolina +3 (-110) · North Texas -3 (-110)
- East Carolina vs North Texas Total: Over/Under 72.5 (-110o / -110u)
- East Carolina vs North Texas Moneyline: East Carolina +125 · North Texas -150
East Carolina vs North Texas Preview
East Carolina Pirates Betting Preview: Change Is Good
Head coach wasn’t the only change the Pirates made. Halfway through the season, East Carolina benched Jake Garcia for Michigan State transfer Katin Houser, and the offense improved. In four games with Houser under center, the team is averaging 42.8 points per game.
Houser is not afraid to push the ball down the field. He has thrown for 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He is averaging 8.5 yards per attempt and has an average depth of target of 10.5.
The Pirates’ top target has been Chase Sowell, but Anthony Smith and Winston Wright Jr. have both come on strong recently. They have combined for 12 touchdowns this season, and Smith averages nearly 20 yards per reception.
The improved passing attack has finally allowed the Pirates' running game to open up again. Longtime running back Rahjai Harris has four touchdowns in the last three games, and the team has totaled at least 220 rushing yards in each of the last three games.
East Carolina has had issues defending the pass, but it has once again been tremendous at stopping the run. The Pirates' defense ranks ninth in Rushing Success Rate allowed and eighth in Line Yards. It allows just 3.7 yards per carry, third in the American.
North Texas Mean Green Betting Preview: Explosive Offense, Lost Defense
TCU transfer Chandler Morris won the starting job and has thrived in his Mean Green system. Morris is averaging 332.8 yards per game and has tossed 27 touchdown passes, the most in the conference and second in the country.
North Texas has two terrific receivers in DT Sheffield and Damon Ward Jr. They average over 70 yards per game, but Morris spreads the ball around. 11 players have at least 10 catches for this Mean Green offense.
Running the ball isn’t something North Texas does often, but it has been effective when it does. Despite ranking 127th in rush rate, lead back Shane Porter is averaging 8.0 yards per carry.
Now to the Mean Green defense… oh boy. There has been nothing mean about this unit; North Texas ranks outside the top 100 against the run and the pass.
They rank 124th in the country in scoring defense, allowing 35.7 points per game and have surrendered an average of 458 total yards. North Texas fired defensive coordinator Matt Caponi on Monday after they allowed 48 points and 681 yards to UTSA last week.
East Carolina vs North Texas
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how East Carolina and North Texas match up statistically:
East Carolina Offense vs. North Texas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 87 | 105 | |
| Line Yards | 91 | 109 | |
| Pass Success | 41 | 99 | |
| Havoc | 102 | 130 | |
| Finishing Drives | 87 | 97 | |
| Quality Drives | 88 | 118 | |
North Texas Offense vs. East Carolina Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 113 | 9 | |
| Line Yards | 114 | 8 | |
| Pass Success | 43 | 95 | |
| Havoc | 48 | 57 | |
| Finishing Drives | 58 | 92 | |
| Quality Drives | 76 | 51 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 67 | 49 |
| PFF Coverage | 38 | 109 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 68 | 38 |
| Middle 8 | 54 | 30 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.9 (2) | 22.2 (4) |
| Rush Rate | 50% (87) | 40% (127) |
East Carolina vs North Texas Pick & Prediction
East Carolina has been rolling ever since their coaching and quarterback change. It has impressively won its past three games, granted against three of the worst teams in the conference. But the confidence it enters this game with is still real.
The beauty of lighting up bad defenses is the Pirates are playing another terrible defense. North Texas will give East Carolina a chance to score on nearly every possession, and it will just be a matter of if its offense can keep up.
The Mean Green have lost four games in a row and have allowed over 45 points in three of their last four. They enter this week as short favorites, just as last week against UTSA in a game they got smacked. Now they face an East Carolina team that beat UTSA by 10 points, and that was with the quarterback they benched.
Since the Pirates switched to Houser at quarterback, they are 3-1. Houser has thrown 14 touchdown passes in the last four games. He is not afraid to sling the ball and should be able to push it downfield against this leaky secondary.
The Pirates have been running the ball effectively recently, and North Texas has allowed over 290 rushing yards in each of the last three games. They have allowed 14 rushing scores in the last four games.
As good as the North Texas offense has been this season, Morris looks like he is dealing with an injury. He has failed to eclipse 300 passing yards three times all season and was held under 250 in the last two games. If he is not 100% healthy, the Mean Green will struggle to keep up with what their defense allows.
East Carolina comes into this game with a ton of confidence, and its offense should keep rolling against the defense. North Texas plays wild, high-scoring games that lend themselves to a lot of variance, so I like the underdog Pirates to pull off the outright upset here.
Pick: East Carolina ML (+125)
East Carolina vs North Texas Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | DACTU Stadium, Denton, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 23 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
East Carolina vs North Texas will be played at DACTU Stadium in Denton, Texas, on Saturday, Nov. 23 at 3:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN+.
East Carolina vs North Texas Betting Trends
East Carolina vs North Texas Weather
