Two college football lines on Friday are pitting casual bettors vs. sharps: Western Michigan vs. Michigan State and Auburn vs. Baylor.
When it comes to college football betting in Week 1 (and beyond), access to sharp action and big money trends can be the key to unlocking solid picks. For PRO subscribers, the advantage lies in exclusive betting data that tracks how both tickets and money are distributed across games.
In this landscape, money is often more influential than the sheer number of tickets. When big money and sharp action converge on the same side, it signals strong confidence from top-tier bettors, making these games especially interesting for those looking to follow the smartest picks.
Friday's Western Michigan vs. Michigan State (7 p.m. ET) and Auburn vs. Baylor (8 p.m. ET) lines perfectly illustrate the “pros versus joes” battle, where public bettors lean one way, and sharps press the opposite.
Check out the square and sharp sides for tonight's two college football predictions.
Smartest College Football Spread Picks for Friday
Western Michigan vs. Michigan State Prediction Friday
Starting the slate on Friday evening at 7 p.m., Western Michigan travels to Michigan State.
Western Michigan attracts a vast majority of the ticket count, with casual bettors convinced they can cover the spread.
However, the sharp money tells a different story. Despite only 21% of tickets backing the Spartans, an overwhelming 93% of the wagered money is on Michigan State. This 72% gap between tickets and money is the largest discrepancy across all Week 1 spreads, indicating professional bettors are heavily favoring the Spartans.
Reflecting this, sharps pushed the spread from -19.5 to -21. Greg Liodice, another trusted analyst on our team, agrees that Michigan State is the smart pick to cover on Friday.
PRO Pick: Michigan State to Cover
Auburn vs. Baylor Prediction Friday
Tonight's headliner is Auburn vs. Baylor at 8 p.m., in another classic sharps versus squares scenario.
Auburn is favored between -1.5 and -2.5 points, yet the betting landscape reveals starkly contrasting trends: the public largely sides with Baylor, while sharp bettors have poured money into Auburn. Only 24% of total tickets are on Auburn, but these wagers represent a massive 71% of the total handle on the game.
Collin Wilson, our in-house college football expert, likes Auburn to win on the moneyline tonight.
