Week 13 College Football Picks, Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:45 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
It's been a great day of betting college football.
Are you ready to bet more college football?
Our staff of betting experts is here for you with four more best bets for Saturday's evening slate, including a side play for Alabama vs. Oklahoma and two picks for the Army vs. Notre Dame showdown.
Check out our college football picks for Week 13's Saturday night slate.
 |  |  |
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Pick
I think there’s still some fight left in the ole Sooners.
This feels like a last-stand spot for an extremely prideful fanbase that will undoubtedly show up in large numbers for a night game against a program they believe they are on par with.
For Oklahoma, a sixth win and a bowl berth are also on the line, and Brent Venables and staff have had two weeks to prepare.
Quarterback Jackson Arnold has looked slightly more comfortable since he returned to action after being benched in the Tennessee game.
The Sooner wide receiver room has also gotten much healthier compared to where it was in October.
On the defensive side, Oklahoma has always been able to play good defense.
They shut down Missouri for most of the game two weeks ago and stymied an elite Ole Miss offense for most of that game in Oxford.
Venables's game plan likely involves removing Jalen Milroe’s rushing lanes and making him a one-dimensional passer.
You could also see Alabama play slightly tighter in this one, knowing a loss would knock them out of everything.
Call it a hunch, but not only do I think Oklahoma covers this game, I actually give the Sooners a chance of pulling off the outright upset.
Boomer.
Pick: Oklahoma +13.5
| | | |
Army vs. Notre Dame Prediction
One hundred years ago, Notre Dame outlasted Army by a touchdown in a consequential showdown between two national powers at the Polo Grounds in New York.
Grantland Rice’s postgame column in the New York Herald Tribune labeled Notre Dame’s backfield of Stuhldreher, Miller, Crowley, and Layden with a catchy nickname: The Four Horsemen.
The Irish relied upon the Four Horsemen that day, and on Saturday Army can fall back on a numeric catchphrase of its own: The Holy Trinity of running the football.
The Cadets rank first nationally in Rush Success Rate, Line Yards, and Stuff Rate.
If you blended Eric Crouch's and Mike Alsott's DNA in a Triple Option Quarterback generator, you’d get Army’s Bryson Daily. He always makes the right choice with the football and seems to enjoy running over defenders. With the ball in Daily’s hands, Army has just three giveaways all season long (2nd).
Army has successfully shortened games with long drives all season long. When facing a top-ten offense (North Texas), the Black Knights allowed the Mean Green just six possessions in the entire game, resulting in a 14-3 Army victory.
That is the recipe to upset a red-hot Notre Dame offense.
The Irish have won eight straight, the last five by 33 points per game. But their blowout of Navy was added by an absurd +6 turnover margin. While the Irish have been rolling for two months, a Group of Five team upset them by playing keep away and forcing Riley Leonard to beat them with his arm. Northern Illinois held Notre Dame to a 30% conversion rate on third downs and just 123 yards on the ground in their September upset in South Bend.
The Irish have vulnerabilities (86th in 3rd Down Offense), and the Army is in the top ten in limiting explosives. If this turns into a slog of a game at Yankee Stadium, I want the team playing with house money to have a crystal clear blueprint on how to win a low-scoring affair.
I’ll take Army to win outright anywhere north of +450.
Pick: Army ML (+500)
| | | |
Army vs. Notre Dame Pick
The Notre Dame offense is in killer mode.
The Irish have scored at least 30 points in six straight games and quarterback Riley Leonard is playing terrific football. He is throwing the ball well, and he and Jeremiyah Love form a dynamic rushing duo running it all over opponents.
The Army’s defense has been terrific at keeping teams out of the end zone and points off the board, but they only rank 86th in the country in terms of the success rate allowed on defense and are 97th at defending the run.
Teams have been able to move the ball on the Black Knights' defense, and I don’t expect them to have the same level of red zone success against the step-up in competition to Notre Dame.
I fully expect Notre Dame to score at least 35 points here, needing we only need about 10 from Army.
For starters, just a few weeks ago Navy scored 14 points despite six turnovers and a hurt quarterback. The Midshipmen ran for 222 yards against this Fighting Irish defense.
Notre Dame’s pass defense has been elite, but it is just 84th in the country in the Rush Success Rate allowed. Army leads the country in rushing yards and is second in the Rush Success Rate.
If you need points, nobody scores more than Army quarterback Bryson Daily. He has 21 rushing touchdowns on the season and seven passing scores. Daily averages 132.8 rushing yards per game, and running back Kanye Udoh averages 95. Both of them go for more than six yards per carry.
Army should be able to move the ball enough on the Fighting Irish defense and find ways to score here.
And Notre Dame still needs style points to impress the College Football Playoff committee since they won’t have a conference championship.
The Irish want to secure a home playoff game and will continue running it on everybody they play.
Pick: Over 44.5
| | | |
Vanderbilt vs. LSU Pick
By Doug Ziefel
We will capitalize on a line that is well off the rest of the market at the time of writing. LSU is a 2.5- to 3.5-point favorite in the first quarter, but I recommend playing those numbers.
This derivative comes down to a stark contrast in offensive schemes. The LSU Tigers are at home and have the sixth-highest pass rate in the country.
Grant Nussmeier and company should come out fast against a Vandy secondary that ranks 125th in opponent completion percentage and 120th in yards per pass allowed.
On the other side, Vandy has shown to be a rush-heavy offense, running the ball at the 23rd-highest rate in the country. However, they have not been efficient, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, which is good for 112th nationally.
If the Tigers can get a stop and keep Vandy off the board, they will likely dominate the time of possession in the first quarter and be up on the scoreboard by the end of it.
Pick: LSU 1Q -0.5
| | | |
