Last week started with such great promise. Not only did Navy cover, it may have torpedoed Trent Dilfer’s regime in Birmingham. The former Elite 11 coach is now 5-11 with the Blazers. Mark Ingram, UAB’s AD, will be giving him the dreaded vote of confidence any day now.
But after that offensive showcase from the Midshipmen, we had a skid, finishing 1-2 overall.
South Florida couldn’t get a stop against Tulane before losing Byrum Brown to an in-game injury for the second straight outing. And a late Marshall touchdown cost us a cover in Huntington.
But the good news is that I love this week’s card. I’m going back to the well, fading Charles Huff and the Thundering Herd before riding two elite G5 quarterbacks out of the SBC and MWC.
So, here's my college football Group of 5 parlay for Week 6 below.
Mike Calabrese's College Football Group of 5 Week 6 Parlay
- App State +3.5
- Over 61.5 (South Alabama-Arkansas State)
- San Jose State -6.5
Parlay Odds: +536 (FanDuel)
App State vs. Marshall Pick
Hurricane Helene had devastating inland effects throughout the South, leaving towns like Boone, North Carolina, completely underwater. The storm’s impact on that community will be felt for months — if not years — as local residents attempt to rebuild in the wake of a horrific event.
When it comes to natural disasters and sports, I intentionally try to steer clear of speculation. In some instances events like this can galvanize a team, while others are left discombobulated.
It’s anyone’s guess where the Mountaineers fall, so I’m keeping this handicap strictly between the white lines.
App State entered 2024 as a respected G5 team. It was viewed as a threat to not only win the Sun Belt but to compete for the G5’s first automatic bid to the College Football Playoff.
Then the season kicked off and things fell apart. This defense is outside of the top 100 in just about every meaningful metric. The unit's biggest issues are an inability to generate Havoc (130th) and the passing defense (112th in passing success).
But I would like to point out that the Mountaineers' numbers have been heavily impacted by blowout losses to Clemson and South Alabama.
Clemson is approaching pre-COVID levels of dominance on the offensive side of the ball (42 PPG), so there’s no shame in getting boat-raced by a suddenly resurgent Tiger offense.
South Alabama has also been special on that side of the ball, featuring one of the nation’s best pitch-and-catch combos in Gio Lopez and Jamaal Pritchett.
I’m buying the dip on App State, believing that its defense has bottomed out. And when facing Marshall, you don’t have to compete with a complete offense in the same way that App State did against Clemson and USA.
Marshall is dependent on A.J. Turner to make this offense go. The sophomore running back is averaging a staggering 12.6 yards per carry. His breakaway percentage, which reflects the amount of rushing yards that have come on runs of 15-plus yards, is a staggering 68.5%.
The only other Group of Five superstar with a higher percentage is Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty.
If Marshall can prevent Turner from popping the big one, the Marshall offense should only score in the mid-20s with average quarterback play from Stone Earle.
If that’s the case, I want the points in this game because Joey Aguilar and this offense have been in this place before. The Mountaineers started slow last fall, going 3-4 before winning six of their final seven games. They know how to orchestrate an offensive turnaround.
There’s also been signs of life offensively from App State. East Carolina has the highest G5 defensive grade, per PFF, yet Aguilar was able to pass for 424 yards in a narrow 21-19 road win.
The market is simply overreacting to their bad night against South Alabama. The ‘Neers started punt-punt-punt-interception-punt and found themselves in a 28-0 hole.
When you have a large enough sample size, you need to toss a team’s top performance and its worst when drilling down to who it really is. Aguilar and this offense has a much higher ceiling than what we saw in their last game.
And finally, Huff has struggled as a home favorite, posting a 5-10 record against the spread since taking over 2021.
My power rankings make this a true pick ‘em, so I’ll take the three and the hook while attempting to catch the falling knife.
Leg 1: App State +3.5
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State Pick
These offenses, when facing below average defenses, can put on a show.
That’s good news for over-backers in this spot because the Red Wolves and Jags rank 115th and 120th in total defense, respectively.
Arkansas State plays with great tempo, snapping it every 25 seconds (36th), and South Alabama is on the verge of the top 40, with nearly 71 plays per game.
The Jags’ true tempo numbers have been skewed a bit slower due to blowouts in opposite directions across their last two games. Against North Texas, in its opener, South Alabama ran 82 plays. The end result was 90 total points between the Mean Green and Jags.
Arkansas State’s full statistical profile also needs to be taken with a grain of salt because it's faced two elite Power Four defenses in the past two weeks. Michigan and Iowa State put them in a box, but the Jaguars don't have the pass rush or secondary to hold ASU’s playmakers in check.
While facing Central Arkansas and Tulsa, sophomore passer Jaylen Raynor performed like an all-SBC quarterback. He finished with 694 total yards and five total touchdowns in those games.
That’s the level of play I’m expecting against South Alabama.
My numbers called for this total to sit in the 68-point range, but I have downgraded them by two due to the injury news on Pritchett. The talented wide receiver was also a big weapon in the return game.
As of publication, Prichett remains in the concussion protocol, according to his head coach Major Applewhite. I’m assuming he’ll be in street clothes for this game.
The good news is that while Lopez may be down his top pass catcher, he can simply turn and hand it to one of the country’s best freshman running backs. Fluff Bothwell is averaging over eight yards per carry this season and has found paydirt six times already.
Arkansas State is just horrific when it comes to stopping the run (234 yards per game, six yards per carry). It struggles with its run fits, and as a team, it's one of the worst tackling groups in college football.
That can help turn short gains into long touchdowns in this one.
With perfect weather conditions on tap for Saturday night, I’m playing this over all the way up to 65.
Leg 2: Over 61.5
Nevada vs. San Jose State Pick
In hushed tones, let me tell you a little secret: San Jose State is one of the best teams to bet on this season. Despite being 4-0 ATS, sportsbooks and the public haven’t caught up on SJSU.
In any game if one unit has a massive advantage, I’m interested in playing that team as a favorite. In this case, the SJSU offense is so far ahead of Nevada it’s scary.
Ken Niumatalolo was hired to replace Brent Brennan and there were legitimate questions about what kind of football SJSU would play. Would the Spartans run a version of the triple option that brought Niumatalolo so much success in Annapolis? Or would he just add option elements to a modern passing attack?
He put those fears to bed when he hired Craig Stutzmann, a fellow Hawaiian and Air Raid specialist. Stutzmann has installed his “Spread-and-Shred” offense, and SJSU has looked like a juggernaut. The Spartans are scoring over 35 points per game.
Emmett Brown, SJSU’s quarterback, is averaging over 320 yards per game through the air with an efficient 13-4 TD-INT ratio. His top target — Nick Nash — leads the nation in both receptions and receiving touchdowns.
The Spartans nearly upset Wazzu in a shootout and have calmly beaten their other three opponents by 10+ in each game.
The game within the game, in my opinion, will be the red zone, specifically Nevada’s. The Wolf Pack have looked far more competent this season than they did last fall thanks to their coaching hire of Jeff Choate.
This Wolf Pack defense is playing bend but don’t break football and is currently top-25 in touchdown percentage allowed in their red zone.
But that’s where SJSU will turn this game. The Spartans may spread you out, but Stutzmann has figured out his red zone packages, and they’ve scored 12 touchdowns on 16 red zone trips this season.
If SJSU plays to its offensive potential at home, it'll score at least 35 points in this game.
I’m confident that when Nevada is forced to play catchup, mistakes will be made by Brendon Lewis. Two weeks ago against Minnesota, he was sacked four times and threw three costly interceptions.
If you can get to him, he will get loose with the football.
San José State is 30th in pass rush grade and a matching 30th in Havoc generated, so get ready for a mistake prone performance from Nevada’s QB1.
I would lay up to nine with the home favorites in this spot.
Leg 3: San Jose State -6.5
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