While No. 14 Tennessee vs. No. 24 NC State is the marquee game of the night for college football's Week 2, our staff has six picks from five games that hold value during the evening slate.
So, here's NCAAF best bets and predictions for Saturday's evening games, including Houston vs. Oklahoma and more on Sept. 7.
NCAAF Best Bets, Predictions for Week 2 Evening Games
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:45 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
South Alabama vs. Ohio
South Alabama lost its head coach in the offseason when Kane Wommack decided to take the defensive coordinator job in Tuscaloosa. You can hardly blame the rising star, because he proved with back-to-back bowl seasons that he’s a helluva head coach at just 37 years of age.
Plus, he doubled his salary moving from the Sun Belt to the SEC, despite a step down to coordinator.
Wommack’s gain, however, is clearly USA’s loss. The defense looked completely lost on Saturday.
South Alabama surrendered 52 points and 550 total yards to North Texas. But for all of their defensive deficiencies, there’s a chance this Jags offense may be able to simply outgun everyone this season.
Gio Lopez set the school record for total offense, and South Alabama actually outgained UNT, using 84 plays (second-most in Week 1) to do it.
Pace, explosive plays and a savvy playcaller (Rob Ezell) should make USA an “over” team all season long. (Speaking of Ezell, if the name sounds familiar it’s because he’s the top Nick Saban impersonator in the game.)
The only question for this total comes on the Ohio side of the equation, but I have faith that it can run through this tissue-thin South Alabama front.
North Texas capped off three drives with short rushing touchdowns, and Ohio has a far superior rushing attack. Northwestern transfer Anthony Tyus III is a load at 230 pounds, and he put up two bills and a pair of scores on Syracuse in the JMA Wireless Dome last week.
And while the Bobs aren’t as lightning quick as South Alabama offensively, they have sped things up since Frank Solich hung it up in 2020. In Solich’s final three years, Ohio averaged right around 68 plays per game, regularly ranking near 100th nationally in tempo.
Tim Albin, a Solich protege, kept with that tradition in recent years, but he has put his faith in a new offensive coordinator – Brian Smith – with an Air Raid past and preference for tempo.
In Week 1 against Syracuse, the Bobcats ran 73 plays (21st) and popped six plays of 20 yards or more.
I would play this over all the way up to 59.
Pick: Over 57 (Play to 59)
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USF vs. Alabama
The Crimson Tide rolled over a solid Western Kentucky team 63-0 last week in Tuscaloosa in Kalen DeBoer’s first game at Alabama as head coach.
The Crimson Tide welcome a familiar foe in USF, which is coming off a 48-3 win over Bethune-Cookman.
The Crimson Tide will present a different challenge, especially with a new-look defense under Kane Wommack that seemed to be flying to the ball in Week 1.
The biggest story of this matchup a year ago was that Jalen Milroe was benched and didn’t play at all. The game a year ago was also played in hurricane-like weather, which doesn’t look to be the case this year in Tuscaloosa.
The big storyline this time around is that Milroe will play. Also, the field at Bryant-Denny Stadium is being named after Nick Saban, so the Crimson Tide should have some motivation to perform well for their former coach.
Because of that motivation factor to honor Coach Saban, I expect the Tide to come out focused early and play well on both sides of the ball.
I think Milroe also comes out focused in a new DeBoer offense that promotes more scoring than Saban’s offense from last year.
I expect the Tide to jump out to an early lead to prove a point again this week against an inferior opponent, so I’ll be taking Alabama 1H -17.5.
Pick: Alabama 1H -17.5 (Play to -19.5)
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San Jose State vs. Air Force
San Jose State looked very impressive in its season opener. In its first game under Ken Niumatalolo, it beat a top-10 FCS team in Sacramento State 42-24.
New quarterback Emmett Brown threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns in his first start after transferring from Washington State.
Star receiver Nick Nash dominated for 10 catches, 170 yards and two touchdowns, plus he added a passing touchdown.
Running back Floyd Chalk IV rushed for two touchdowns in a terrific showing for new offensive coordinator Craig Stutzmann.
On the other side of the ball, the Spartans’ defense allowed just 4.3 yards per play. After really turning a corner down the stretch of last season, they picked up right where they left off.
On the flip side, Air Force didn’t look good at all in its season opener against an FCS team. The Falcons only beat Merrimack 21-6 and came away with more questions than answers.
Air Force managed just 237 total yards of offense and for an offense that makes its bones on running the football, it really struggled to do so.
The Falcons had just 166 rushing yards on 55 carries, a measly 3.0 yards per carry.
The offense came into the year replacing its quarterback, running back, fullback and entire offensive line. Those growing pains sure look like they’re going to take awhile to figure things out.
Nobody knows how to stop the triple-option better than service academies. Niumatalolo was the head coach at Navy for 15 seasons. Over that stretch, his team went 17-13 against the other service academies, and they were 5-2 against the spread against Air Force as an underdog.
San Jose State can win this game here, so take the points.
Pick: San Jose State +5.5 (Play to +4)
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San Jose State vs. Air Force
The San Jose State Spartans will hit the road to face the Air Force Falcons. Both teams enter the game 1-0 after beating their Week 1 FCS opponents, but I think there’s a mispricing in the way Vegas is looking at San Jose State.
San Jose State has a new head coach in Ken Niumatalolo, but he’s no stranger to the realm of service academy football. After 16 years as the head coach of Navy, Niumatalolo shouldn’t miss a beat preparing for the Air Force flexbone offense.
The Air Force offense is going through a sweeping revamp after returning just two starters from a 2023 squad that started the season 8-0.
Of particular concern for the Falcons is the quarterback position and offensive line, both of which are of the utmost importance when running flexbone. Things looked OK against Merrimack last week, but it came against a 5-6 team in FCS play last season.
The Spartans should be able to separate themselves from the Falcons on offense, particularly after a hot start last week against Sacramento State.
In a 42-point performance, the surprise starter at quarterback – Emmett Brown – emerged to lead the “Spread-and-Shred” offense for the Spartans.
In a change of philosophy for Niumatalolo, the Spartans will feature a variation of the Air Raid offense. Brown looked sharp at the helm in his debut, but wide receiver Nick Nash stole the show, accounting for three total touchdowns.
The Spartans’ offense is the brainchild of offensive coordinatorCraig Stutzmann, who served as the passing game coordinator for Texas State last season.
Air Force returns most of its defensive productivity at corner, but SP+ ranks it as last in the nation in returning productivity.
Given the significant challenges that Air Force has in replacing last season’s talent and a tough matchup against a very familiar foe, I think that San Jose State should be the favored team.
We still have a lot to learn about both teams; however, I think that San Jose State at +150 or better to win outright is an excellent allocation of betting capital.
Pick: San Jose State ML +170 (Play to +150)
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Western Michigan vs. Ohio State
By Matt Wispe
After a slow start in its season opener against Akron, there’s been a consistent message from the Ohio State coaching staff about getting off to a better start.
And while Western Michigan is expected to be a step up from Akron, the Broncos’ defense is unlikely to slow down the Ohio State offense.
Western Michigan got off to a slow start against Wisconsin, with only seven first half points that came with 3:02 remaining in the second quarter. This lack of scoring is in spite of the fact that the team finished with a 42.3% Success Rate on offense.
And while Wisconsin’s defense is consistently considered to be above average, the Ohio State defense – which ranked second in scoring defense in 2023 and added key contributors in the offseason – will represent a step up.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Broncos struggled mightily, despite the reasonable final score. They allowed a 56.8% Success Rate (4.5 points per opportunity) and only generated Havoc on 16% of plays.
Potentially more concerning in this matchup, their defensive line was largely pushed around, allowing 3.76 line yards per attempt.
Considering the biggest concern for the Ohio State offense is its offensive line in the run game, Western Michigan is unlikely to be able to exploit that.
Ohio State’s offense finished its season opener with a 51.6% Success Rate and scored 5.43 points per opportunity. This success was over the total length of the game, however. The Buckeyes’ opening drive ended with a three-and-out and their third drive finished with a turnover on downs.
After those drives, they scored on five of their next six drives.
Because of this emphasis from the coaching staff and a Western Michigan defense that appears to be porous, expect Ohio State to finish the first quarter with a two-score lead.
Pick: Ohio State 1Q -9.5
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Houston vs. Oklahoma
Houston looked terrible in its opening game, losing 27-7 at home against UNLV. It looks to be a difficult first season for the Cougars under Willie Fritz.
With that being said, the offense really shouldn’t be as bad as it showed in the opener.
Donovan Smith is back at quarterback with a new offensive coordinator in Kevin Barbay. Barbay had a difficult season at Mississippi State in 2023, but the year before that, he was the offensive coordinator at Appalachian State and led it to a 29th ranking in the country in EPA.
What Houston is looking to do under Fritz is run the football, and it has a good running back in Parker Jenkins, who averaged 4.7 yards per carry in 2023 with 20 of his 98 rushes going over 10 yards.
Oklahoma does return a lot on defense, and while it was good in 2023, it did give up a lot of big plays, ranking 118th in explosiveness allowed.
Jackson Arnold wasn’t called on a lot against Temple, as Oklahoma looked to run the football, but he still threw for four touchdowns with only 141 yards passing.
Gavin Sawchuck is a really good running back that should have a big day on Saturday. He averaged 6.2 yards per carry in 2023 with a 78.4 PFF rushing grade. In addition to that, he has a great offensive line in front of him that has 112 starts worth of experience.
Houston is moving to a new defensive scheme with a ton of transfers coming in, which as the first game showed against UNLV, it’s going to take some time for the Cougars to learn the system and play it at a high level.
Both Oklahoma and Houston were at around 25 seconds per play in their opening games, which was above the FBS average last season. That means the pace should be decently fast here, and Oklahoma should be able to do whatever it wants offensively.
I have 57.6 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 49 points.
Pick: Over 49
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