College Football Best Bets for Saturday Night
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
It's been a long day of college football.
Are you ready for more college football Week 5 betting action?
Here are our staff's college football best bets and evening picks for Saturday's night slate, including predictions for Ohio State vs. Michigan State and Washington State vs. Boise State.
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Florida Atlantic vs. Wagner Best Bet
By Joshua Nunn
Florida Atlantic has been quite the disappointment this season, sitting at 1-3 after a blowout loss last week at UConn.
I actually like the way the Owls have competed this year overall, though. They opened the season with a close loss to Michigan State, and they played Army to the Knights' closest margin of the season.
While last week isn’t excusable, the Owls were coming off a big rivalry win against FIU, and Connecticut really took it to them in a down spot.
So, why are the Owls laying so many points this week?
Well, Wagner is a really bad FCS program. I have it power-rated in the bottom 15 natinoally. Its wins have come against non-DI UVA Lynchburg and FCS bottom-feeder Delaware State.
In its three games against FCS opponents, Wagner has averaged just 305 yards per game and is converting third downs at less than 31%.
The Seahawks are averaging 4.6 yards per carry against significantly weaker defensive fronts. They are still unsettled at quarterback, as Jake Cady and Damien Mazil are splitting reps.
The FAU defense will make it monumentally challenging for Wagner to move the ball and stay on the field on offense, something the Seahawks couldn’t do against Robert Morris or Lehigh.
Their offensive line play isn’t good enough to generate push in the trenches or open up running lanes for their running backs to be effective.
FAU needs a feel-good game offensively before it gets back into AAC play, and Wagner is just the opponent to provide that outcome.
The talent disparity between FAU and Wagner will be staggering. Over the last three years, Wagner has played six FBS teams and has surrendered an average of 51.8 points per game in those contests.
In those six contests, Wagner has been an underdog by an average of 44.5 points on the spread, close to where I think this line should be if appropriate perceptions were given for FAU.
Take the Owls here to roll over NEC doormat Wagner by at least five touchdowns.
Pick: FAU -31.5 (Play to -34.5)
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Michigan State vs. Ohio State Best Bet
If you look up the word “reckless” in the dictionary, its definition is accompanied by an image of Aidan Chiles.
Only two FBS teams have thrown more interceptions than the Oregon State transfer’s seven on the season, and he’s yet to play a defense anywhere close to the talent of Ohio State’s.
Chiles and Michigan State (3-1) are Ohio State’s Big Ten openers. The Buckeyes (3-0) have somehow managed to look as bland and unnoteworthy as possible in their first three games despite outsourcing their competition 157-20.
But much of that has to do with how little Ryan Day and Co. have been willing and/or forced to reach in their bag to put on tape before arriving at the meat of their schedule.
Michigan State is the best team the Buckeyes have played so far, and the talent gulf is vast in Jonathan Smith's first season.
The biggest difference in this game will be in the trenches, where the Buckeyes will wreak Havoc all game, bottling up any threat of a Michigan State run game behind an offensive line that ranks 122nd in line yards.
Chiles' inability to run and the need to pass the ball to climb out of a scoreline hole will place a lot of responsibility on them, as they are turnover-prone.
The Ohio State defense ranks second in Pass Success Rate allowed, and if there was a bet on this unit scoring more touchdowns than the Michigan State offense, I might take it.
Smith has Sparty trending in the right direction, but these are programs on completely different tiers.
The Buckeyes have won 42 straight against unranked opponents, a stretch I don’t see coming anywhere close to snapping this weekend in East Lansing.
Pick: Ohio State -23.5 (Play to -24)
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Boise State vs. Washington State Best Bet
Washington State's offense is humming right now after putting up 54 points against San Jose State.
A lot of its success has to do with quarterback John Mateer.
With Mateer under center, the Cougars are the biggest boom-or-bust offense in the country. They lead the nation in explosive plays but sit just 51st in Success Rate.
Mateer's passing grades aren't all that great, but he throws the ball down the field at a really high rate. He already has seven big-time throws and an average depth of target of 12.7 yards — the third-highest average among quarterbacks who have attempted at least 100 passes.
Mateer is also a really dangerous runner. He's averaging 8.5 yards per carry with five touchdowns and already has 16 runs of 10 yards or more, adding another dimension to the offense.
The Broncos have played just three games on the season, but in the two that came against FBS opponents — Georgia Southern and Oregon — they gave up a combined 82 points.
After those outings, the Broncos rank 125th in Explosiveness allowed and 116th in Finishing Drives Allowed. That's a terrible combination against this Washington State offense.
Meanwhile, there are real question marks in this game about how Washington State stops Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty. The Cougars sit outside the top 100 in Rush Explosiveness allowed and rank 72nd in EPA per Rush allowed.
In case you haven't heard, Jeanty is tearing up college football, averaging 10.5 yards per attempt with nine touchdowns in only three games.
The pace of this game is also expected to be really fast, as both teams come in inside the top 45 in seconds per play.
So, given the fact that both offenses have massive advantages, I like the value on over 64.5 points.
Pick: Over 64.5 (Play to 67)
