Year two of the Jeff Brohm era in Louisville begins Saturday as the Cardinals play host to Austin Peay.
Expectations are high for the Cardinals this season after they made it to the 2023 ACC Championship game.
Meanwhile, it's an opportunity for the Governors to play spoiler and pick up an extremely rare win over a Power Four opponent as an FCS school.
Below is a full preview and an Austin Peay vs. Louisville prediction.
Austin Peay Governors vs Louisville Cardinals Prediction
- Austin Peay vs. Louisville Pick: Louisville -36.5
My Austin Peay vs. Louisville best bet is the Cardinals to cover the spread with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Austin Peay vs Louisville Odds
| Austin Peay Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+37.5 -108 | 53 -115o / -105u | +5000 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-37.5 -112 | 53 -115o / -105u | -20000 |
- Austin Peay vs Louisville Point Spread: Austin Peay +37.5 (-108) · Louisville -37.5 (-112)
- Austin Peay vs Louisville Total: Over/Under 53
- Austin Peay vs Louisville Moneyline: Austin Peay +5000 · Louisville -20000
Austin Peay vs Louisville Preview
Austin Peay Governors Betting Preview: Staff And Roster Turnover
The Governors went 9-3 a year ago and did not lose a game in the United Athletic Conference.
You'd think that would mean high expectations for this season, but they were picked to finish fifth out of nine teams in this year's UAC preseason poll.
This is likely because of a new coaching staff turning over the roster.
Jeff Faris, who most recently was on Chip Kelly's offensive staff at UCLA, will take over as head coach. He'll likely want to play fast and use tempo to break down opposing defenses.
The Govs recruited Ohio transfer running back O'Shaan Allison from the portal in the offseason, who should immediately spark the backfield.
I have serious concerns for Austin Peay this Saturday in the trenches. The offensive line has many new faces, and they will face a formidable Louisville front four.
I don't think the line will hold up in pass protection, which could spell trouble for new quarterback Austin Smith.
Smith already has a lot on his plate learning a brand new system coming over for Eastern Michigan, and this is a tough matchup for game one.
On the other side of the ball, Peay had to replace plenty on the defensive end, which is concerning going up against an explosive Louisville offense.
To hang around in this one, Austin Peay's defense must force some turnovers and be stout in the red zone.
Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview: Expect Big Things From Shough and Gillotte
Ten wins a season ago have the Louisville faithful expecting big things in 2024.
Quarterback Jack Plummer is out, and Texas Tech transfer quarterback Tyler Shough is in.
If Shough can finally stay healthy for a full season, this would be a significant upgrade from Jack Plummer.
I felt Plummer held back the Cardinals' offense last season. He often just checked the ball down, missed some big throws, and wasn't mobile.
Brohm also went to the transfer portal and brought in plenty of pass-catching talent, including Ja'Corey Brooks from Alabama, who should contribute from day one.
Nobody in the running back room completely jumps off the page, but Maurice Turner and Donald Chaney Jr. are both capable backs.
At their best, Brohm's offenses typically balance the pass and the run well, and I think both will be reliable on Saturday against a suspect Austin Peay defense.
When the Governors have the ball, look for the Louisville front seven led by Ashton Gillotte to have a field day. Gillotte elected to come back for his senior year after having a monster season in 2023.
The secondary struggled a year ago, but I expect to see some improvements this year. I don't know that the APSU offense will be able to test it much this week.
Expect the Cardinals defensive unit to gain some confidence in the opener and shut down its opponent.
Austin Peay vs Louisville Pick & Prediction
I have some concerns about Louisville's long-term upside.
But the Cardinals should crush Austin Peay in the season opener.
Ultimately, the Cardinals have too many advantages on both sides of the ball, and the talent gap is too wide.
Shough's offense should pass and run all over Austin Peay. When Louisville pulls their starters, I don't anticipate a big drop-off in production.
This feels like a "name your number" game for Louisville. I feel comfortable laying the five-touchdown spread in what should be a very one-sided affair.
Pick: Louisville -36.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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How to Watch Austin Peay vs Louisville Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY |
| Date: | Saturday, Aug. 31 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ACC Network |
Austin Peay vs Louisville Betting Trends
- The Cardinals are taking sharp action in the markets, with only 7% of the bets representing over half the handle.
- While Louisville went 10-4 straight up in 2023, the Cardinals finished just 6-8 against the spread, including 4-8 ATS as a favorite.
- Lousiville went 5-2 ATS at home last season.
