The Auburn Tigers (4-5) take on the Vanderbilt Commodores (7-2) in Nashville, Tennessee. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Vanderbilt is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -250. The total is set at 45.5 points.
Here’s my Auburn vs. Vanderbilt prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 8.
Auburn Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores Prediction, Picks
- Auburn vs. Vanderbilt Pick: Vanderbilt -7 or Better
My Vanderbilt vs. Auburn best bet is on Vanderbilt to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Auburn vs Vanderbilt Odds, Line, Betting Spread
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 46.5 -105o / -115u | +185 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 46.5 -105o / -115u | -225 |
- Auburn vs Vanderbilt Spread: Vanderbilt -6, Auburn +6
- Auburn vs Vanderbilt Over/Under: 46.5 Points
- Auburn vs Vanderbilt Moneyline: Auburn ML +185, Vanderbilt ML -225
Auburn vs Vanderbilt NCAAF Preview
Auburn Tigers Betting Preview
We all figured Auburn would have a new head coach to start next season, but a home loss to Kentucky was the last straw for Hugh Freeze, and he was fired before finishing his third season with the Tigers.
Auburn slid to 4-5 on the year and just 1-5 in SEC play this season, and is just 6-16 in the SEC over the last three years.
The biggest flaw for Freeze was consistently misidentifying the quarterback. The Tigers pulled Jackson Arnold out of the portal, and he has not been the guy. His throwing upside is severely limited, passing for just six touchdowns with two interceptions this year.
Auburn made a quarterback change last week, but the results did not improve. Ashton Daniels went 13-for-28 passing with 108 yards and an interception. Like Jackson, he is much more of a running threat.
Running the ball has been the only real threat for the Tigers this season. They rank in the top 25 nationally in Rush Success Rate, behind Jeremiah Cobb and the mobile quarterbacks. Cobb is fourth in the SEC with 789 yards and is averaging 5.8 yards per carry.
The problem for Auburn is that they are built to throw the ball.
They have spent a ton of NIL money at the receiver position, landing star recruit Cam Coleman out of high school and securing Eric Singleton Jr. from the transfer portal. They have one of the best wide receiver groups in the country, and nobody to get them the ball.
Defensive Coordinator D.J. Durkin was named the interim head coach for Freeze after fielding a top 10 defense in the country. The Tigers have yet to allow more than 24 points this season and have allowed more than 350 total yards just twice all year.
Auburn has an elite run defense, leading the nation in Rush Success Rate allowed this year. They have surrendered just 2.5 yards per carry and have held each of the last four opponents under 95 rushing yards.
Linebacker Xavier Atkins is a game wrecker for the Tigers. He leads the team with 69 tackles and has the most tackles for loss in the SEC with 14. Atkins and Robert Woodyard Jr. will be tasked with slowing down this Vanderbilt rushing attack on Saturday.
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview
After starting the season 5-0, the Commodores just went through a gauntlet of four straight top 20 teams, dropping the two road contests.
Now, they return home to Nashville with a chance to bounce back against a reeling Auburn team.
Nobody was more disappointed to see Hugh Freeze fired this week than Diego Pavia. Pavia has been the Freeze killer, taking down his teams in three straight seasons, including New Mexico State's upset of Auburn.
Pavia has been tremendous this season. He has thrown for 18 touchdown passes and has added six on the ground. He is the team’s leading rusher and is the heartbeat of the team.
Even in the loss to Texas last week, Pavia was fantastic against an elite defense.
Vanderbilt ranks fourth nationally in Success Rate, sitting in the top 10 in rushing and passing. Through the air, Pavia feeds his best friend and longtime roommate, tight end Eli Stowers.
On the ground, Pavia operates the read option to perfection with backs Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young. Alexander is the leading rusher and most reliable piece, but Young has been an electric home run threat, averaging 11.1 yards per carry. Young leads the SEC with three 50-plus-yard runs this season.
The Commodores' defense has been good, but not great, and they clearly ran out of gas last week. This is a top 50 unit in the country, but it doesn’t do anything at an exceptionally elite level.
The biggest strength has been creating Havoc. Vanderbilt ranks in the top 30 in both tackles for loss and forced fumbles. Edge rushers Miles Capers and Khordae Sydnor are doing an excellent job getting into the backfield, both against the run and in the passing game.
The ‘Dores have done a really good job slowing down the run, especially as teams get close to the end zone. Vandy has allowed just four rushing touchdowns all season, fifth best in the country. They have surrendered just two rushing scores in the last six weeks.
Auburn vs Vanderbilt Pick to Bet
Auburn’s defense is elite. There is no denying that. They rank eighth nationally in Success Rate allowed this season. But there are a few red flags on that side of the ball when you look under the hood and their full profile.
As great as Auburn has been on a down-to-down basis, they rank 135th in Explosiveness allowed. The reason for that has been a breakdown in fundamentals. The Tigers rank 105th in PFF's Tackling grades and 122d in PFF’s Coverage grades.
That means that breakdowns in coverage allow wide-open receivers in the passing game, and broken tackles leading to long plays.
Vanderbilt ranks 15th nationally in Pass Explosiveness. Pavia might not be the most lethal passer in the world, but he can hit big plays to Stowers, Junior Sherrill, and Tre Richardson on this defense. Even against an elite Texas defense last week, Pavia threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns.
Pavia, Alexander, and Young might not have the most efficient game running the ball against this defense, but an Auburn missed tackle can quickly turn into a big play.
Vanderbilt ranks 10th nationally in Finishing Drives; whichever way they move the ball, the Commodores will turn scoring chances into points.
Can Auburn match those points? Auburn's offense has been broken for the better part of the last three years.
The Tigers loaded up at wide receiver, but they don’t have anybody to get them the ball. Arnold was benched for Daniels last week, and whoever is in the game on Saturday will be more dangerous with his legs than his arm.
That is the opposite of how you want to attack a Vanderbilt team that has been shredded by the pass this season.
The Commodores' secondary has been their biggest weakness, and the two losses this season for Vanderbilt are also the only two games in which it allowed over 300 passing yards.
Vanderbilt is 7-0 this season against teams that were not able to throw the ball against them. I don’t trust this Auburn offense to pass the ball, and Vanderbilt will pick up enough explosive plays to pull away and cover here.
Pick: Vanderbilt -7 or Better
