The Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-1) are on the road again in Week 4, traveling to face a Big 12 opponent, the Iowa State Cyclones (2-0), in Ames, Iowa, at Jack Trice Stadium.
This follows a tough road loss in the Big House against the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor, where the Red Wolves fell 28-18.
Iowa State enters Saturday off a big win in Iowa City two weeks ago, defeating the Iowa Hawkeyes, 20-19, on a last-second field goal. The Cyclones had a bye last week, which should help temper emotions and help them refocus against a solid Arkansas State football team.
Iowa State is favored by 21 points on the spread while the total sits at 51.5. The Clones are also -1800 on the moneyline.
Can Arkansas State keep it close on the road again, or will Iowa State handle business at home? Here's my Arkansas State vs Iowa State prediction.
Arkansas State vs. Iowa State Odds, Line, Pick
| Arkansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -110 | 52 -110o / -110u | +850 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -110 | 52 -110o / -110u | -1450 |
- Point Spread: Arkansas State +20.5 · Iowa State -20.5
- Total: Over/Under 52 Points
- Moneyline: Arkansas State ML +850 · Iowa State ML -1450
- Pick: Iowa State -21
Arkansas State vs Iowa State Preview
Arkansas State Football
The Red Wolves enter this one under head coach Butch Jones, the former Tennessee head coach, in his fourth season in Jonesboro, Arkansas, looking to add another win in what feels like a make-or-break season for Jones. The Red Wolves are 13-27 since he took the helm, so he will need a positive season to avoid being on the job market again.
Butch Jones returns his starting quarterback (Jaylen Raynor) and two leading rushers (Ja'Quez Cross, Zak Wallace) from a year ago.
Raynor has proven to be a talented thrower and runner, with over 700 yards in the air and over 100 yards running the football early this year. His issue is turnovers, as he has three interceptions through three games. Raynor didn't look great last week, and the game was close before backup quarterback Timmy McClain came in and threw for two touchdowns late.
Arkansas State ranks 92nd in Success Rate, and the Red Wolves are fairly balanced. They can be explosive with Raynor, ranking 18th nationally, but they struggle to sustain drives. Raynor needs to stay clean, avoid mistakes and methodically drive the field to have any hope in Ames on Saturday.
Arkansas State has struggled on defense. The Red Wolves have allowed 28 points per game, but credit to the offense because they're 2-1. The defense ranks 90th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and 77th in Pass Success Rate allowed.
Of greater importance, the Red Wolves can't stop chunk plays, ranking 106th in Rush Explosiveness allowed.
They also struggle to create a pass rush, which should hurt against the pass-happy Cyclones.
Iowa State Football
Matt Campbell and the Cyclones upset the Iowa Hawkeyes in Iowa City, and now they look to use that as momentum going back to Ames for this one.
His team has shown a lot of grit during the year, playing good defense and winning a close game two weeks ago.
However, he must get this offense going before Big 12 play to help alleviate some of that pressure they have been putting on their defense thus far in the season.
Quarterback Rocco Becht won the Big 12 Freshman of the Year award last season, and he's been OK to start 2024 with 500 yards, four touchdowns and a pick through two games.
I think Campbell will try to run the ball more on Saturday, setting up more deep shots for Becht and building his confidence before conference play.
Iowa State ranks fifth nationally in Rush Explosiveness, so the Cyclones should earn some chunk plays on the ground and set up the deep pass. Running back Abu Sama III must return to form after a weak start to the season, and I suspect he'll start in Week 4. Meanwhile, Becht should connect on some deep throws to Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins.
Campbell's bread and butter is his defense. The Cyclones have allowed 11 points per game through two games, playing suffocating defense with excellent fundamentals.
They're slightly weaker at stopping the run, but they limit chunk gains on the ground (21st nationally in Rush Explosiveness allowed). However, they are vulnerable to big plays over the top (96th in Pass Explosiveness allowed).
The key for the Cyclones is keeping teams in passing downs.
Arkansas State vs Iowa State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arkansas State and Iowa State match up statistically:
Arkansas State Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 109 | 97 | |
| Line Yards | 111 | 57 | |
| Pass Success | 110 | 13 | |
| Havoc | 63 | 55 | |
| Finishing Drives | 92 | 13 | |
| Quality Drives | 72 | 37 | |
Iowa State Offense vs. Arkansas State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 101 | 121 | |
| Line Yards | 73 | 124 | |
| Pass Success | 41 | 81 | |
| Havoc | 12 | 112 | |
| Finishing Drives | 82 | 109 | |
| Quality Drives | 61 | 76 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 119 | 49 |
| PFF Coverage | 95 | 14 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 90 | 72 |
| Middle 8 | 94 | 72 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.7 (14) | 28.0 (69) |
| Rush Rate | 47% (97) | 45% (103) |
Arkansas State vs Iowa State Prediction
I don't think Arkansas State can run the ball effectively enough to set up deep shots for Raynor.
Conversely, Iowa State should run the ball well and set up deep shots for Becht.
I expect Iowa State's offense to wake up after a slow start, and I figure it's defense should have no issues shutting down the Red Wolves.
Pick: Iowa State -21
How to Watch Iowa State vs Arkansas State
| Location: | Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 2 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
Iowa State vs Arkansas State Betting Trends
- Arkansas State is 2-1 SU but 1-2 ATS.
- Iowa State is 2-0 SU but 1-1 ATS.
Arkansas State vs Iowa State Weather
