The Xavier Musketeers take on the Connecticut Huskies in Hartford, CT. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on FS1.
UConn is favored by 13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1100. The total is set at 146.5 points.
Here are my Xavier vs. UConn predictions and college basketball picks for December 18, 2024.
Xavier vs UConn Prediction
My Pick: UConn -14.5 or Better
My Xavier vs UConn best bet is on the Huskies spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Xavier vs UConn Odds, Lines, Pick
| Xavier Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 146.5 -110 / -110 | +700 |
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 146.5 -110 / -110 | -1100 |
- Xavier vs UConn spread: UConn -13.5
- Xavier vs UConn over/under: 146.5 points
- Xavier vs UConn moneyline: UConn -1100, Xavier +700
- Xavier vs UConn best bet: UConn -14.5 or Better
Spread
Red flags surround this Xavier team. That's a bad sign for a team heading to face UConn on the road. The Huskies should be poised to cover this number.
Moneyline
There is no value here on the Huskies as a big favorite.
Over/Under
My preference here is on the spread. A UConn blowout could tip the total over, but its a stayaway for me.
My Pick: UConn -14.5 or Better
My Xavier vs UConn College Basketball Betting Preview
Xavier Basketball
With Big East play on the horizon, Xavier's stock is taking a dive. The Musketeers have lost three of their last five, including their first two true road games. Last Saturday, Xavier lost the Crosstown Shootout — one of college basketball's most underrated rivalries — to hated Cincinnati for the first time since 2018.
Worst of all, Xavier lost its leading scorer, best player and senior leader Zach Freemantle to an injury in that game. He is out indefinitely with an unnamed lower-body injury.
Those are some terrifying words to hear about a player who ended each of the last two years with a season-ending surgery. It would not be shocking to learn that the 24-year-old, fifth-year player has played his final collegiate game due to injury concerns.
This comes after Lassina Traore — a coveted transfer from Long Beach State projected to start at center for Xavier — tore his ACL in practice back in October.
This team was already unexpectedly thin in the frontcourt, and is now searching for an answer.
The most likely recipient of more minutes and shots is Jerome Hunter, a fifth-year man, who like Freemantle, missed all of last season due to injury. In 2022-23, he played 21 minutes per game for Xavier, and he's started more than 30 games as a Musketeer.
This year, as he works his way back from last season's injury, he has played 19 minutes per game, all off the bench. Inserting him into Freemantle's role leaves a ton to be desired, given that Hunter has not looked sharp this season. In 18 minutes against Michigan, Hunter failed to record a point, assist, block or steal.
Sean Miller will instead need to lean more on his backcourt, led by Indiana State transfer Ryan Conwell. He has posted 17 points per game this year, with 44% shooting from long range. As his volume increases with more defensive attention, it's hard to see that continuing.
He's joined on the perimeter by Dayvion McKnight, who is posting fewer minutes, points, rebounds, assists and steals this season than he did in 2023-24.
The Musketeers are in a rut and things likely only get worse from here.
UConn Basketball
The UConn Huskies, coming off back-to-back national titles under the reign of fireball head coach Dan Hurley, certainly have their haters.
That group was in good spirits following Connecticut's performance in the Maui Invitational. The Huskies dropped all three games played on the islands and finished in last place in the tournament.
Since then, Hurley and company have quieted the haters and returned to form, announcing themselves once again as a team with a real chance to make noise in March.
Just 15 days ago, people thought the sky was falling around this team. Now UConn can proudly say it hasn't lost a game in the contiguous 48 states, shoots the best 2-point percentage in college hoops and ranks top-five nationally in offensive efficiency and assist rate.
The issues in Maui were more focused on the defensive end of the floor, where the Huskies have had two notable problems.
The first is opponents hitting 37.3% from outside the arc, the third-highest percentage faced by a power-conference defense this season. UConn's opponents in Maui made 53% of their attempts from deep, thanks to the soft rims at the Lahaina Civic Center.
Is that bad close-outs or bad shooting luck? Some other factors and the eye test would suggest its more bad luck than bad defense.
UConn is only allowing opponents to attempt 16.8 3s per game, third-fewest in the country. It's highly unlikely for a team to be giving up so few 3s that all happen to be good looks. More likely, teams have simply shot well against the Huskies in those limited attempts, which should regress back toward the mean in the coming weeks.
The bigger issue has come via the whistles levied against UConn's defense. The Huskies rank 334th in free throw rate allowed, with just 17 teams allowing a higher percentage of opponents' points at the charity stripe, per KenPom.
In UConn's six games against top-100 competition, Husky opponents have attempted more than 26 free throws per game. No team in men's college basketball averages even 22 attempts per game.
Samson Johnson, the anchor of Hurley's defense in the paint, is averaging 7.5 fouls per 40 minutes of action. Johnson is actually out for this game, though, as he is dealing with a concussion.
The Huskies are blocking shots at the third-highest rate in the nation and nabbing turnovers at a middle-of-the-road pace, but they may need to sacrifice some of those stats as they dial down the aggressiveness defensively, ending their opponents' non-stop parade to the free throw line.
Xavier vs. UConn Betting Analysis
If those two team descriptions weren't clear enough, this game screams UConn.
Xavier will need to figure out life without Freemantle and doing so on the fly on the road against the two-time reigning NCAA champs is far from the ideal place to find a new normal.
Xavier's guards, who are expected to pick up the scoring slack, will see high-level pressure from UConn, led by Hassan Diarra, one of the better on-ball perimeter defenders in the Big East.
Add in the shooting regression factor, and things get even scarier for Xavier. UConn's defense is bound to catch a team on a cold shooting night sooner than later, with four of UConn's last seven opponents sinking better than 47% from deep.
In Xavier's last three games, meanwhile, the Musketeers are shooting 42% while facing just 27% shooting from opponents.
If both of those swing in a big way, the Huskies should run and hide from a depleted Xavier squad.
