The Virginia Cavaliers take on the Villanova Wildcats in Baltimore, MD. Tip-off is set for 5:00 p.m. ET on TNT.
The Wildcats are favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -180. The total is also set at 129.5.
Here’s my Virginia vs. Villanova predictions and college basketball picks for November 15, 2024.
Virginia vs Villanova Odds, Spread
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 129.5 -110 / -110 | +165 |
| Villanova Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 129 -110 / -110 | -200 |
- Virginia vs Villanova spread: Villanova -4.5
- Virginia vs Villanova over/under: 129 points
- Virginia vs Villanova moneyline: Villanova -200, Virginia +165
- Virginia vs Villanova best bet: Under 129.5
Virginia vs Villanova College Basketball Betting Preview
Only a few short years ago, this game would’ve captured the attention of the nation.
Jay Wright led his Villanova Wildcats to championships in 2016 and 2019 and dominated the Big East for over a decade. Tony Bennett avenged an historic first-round upset to No. 16-seed UMBC to bring Virginia a title in 2019.
Now both Hall of Fame coaches are gone, and both programs are heading south in a hurry.
This game has ugly with a capital U written all over it.
As the sub-130 total suggests, we’re expecting a low-possession, half-court contest on Thursday between two teams that are allergic to playing in transition. Villanova ranks 298th in offensive possession length (the lower the slower), while Virginia ranks 345th.
Per Hoop-Math, both teams are in the bottom quartile nationally in percentage of initial shots attempted in transition.
Though the total seems super low, we’re still taking the under. A neutral arena is a perfect setting for what should be a slog of a game.
Virginia has played two games this season, both against opponents that rank outside the top 300 nationally. It has scored 65 and 62 points in those contests.
Nova’s defense is far superior to Campbell’s and Coppin State’s, and it won’t allow UVA to manufacture easy buckets through its mover/blocker attack.
New head coach Ron Sanchez has stuck to Bennett’s old system (and the one Sanchez himself ran at Charlotte), one that relies on off-ball screening and cutting to score buckets. It’s inherently a patient attack that drains the clock.
Villanova will rely on ball screen action and playing through its senior stalwart Eric Dixon. Virginia can still defend despite the coaching change, and it still packs the paint, disallowing easy buckets inside or second chances off the glass.
The Wildcats have feasted on the offensive glass in early contests, something they won’t be able to do against the Hoo shell. Virginia has a few versatile pieces to throw on Dixon, but even if the star forward gets his usual 20, his supporting cast has lacked firepower this season.
The Cats’ 3-point attack is even down, ranking just 222nd in 3-point attempt rate, which is great news for the pack-line Virginia defense.
Finally, the head coaching matchup in this game just isn’t very good. Sanchez is predictable and won’t mystify Villanova with his strict cutting motion. Neptune seems like he has one foot out the door already, and his team seems to know it. He won’t be drawing up masterful schemes to crack what is a formidable defensive unit.
This game won’t be fun to watch, but it could be fun to bet on.
Take the under and pray for a chilly night in Baltimore.
Pick: Under 129.5
