The UNC Tar Heels take on the Virginia Cavaliers in Charlottesville, Virginia. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Virginia is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -300. The total is set at 149.5 points.
Here’s my UNC vs. Virginia predictions and college basketball picks for January 24, 2026.
UNC vs Virginia Prediction, Pick
My Pick: Virginia -7.5
My UNC vs Virginia best bet is on the Cavaliers to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UNC vs. Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
- UNC vs Virginia spread: Virginia -7.5
- UNC vs Virginia over/under: 149.5 points
- UNC vs Virginia moneyline: UNC +240, Virginia -300
UNC vs Virginia Game Preview
UNC Tar Heels
UNC is 15-4 this season and 3-3 in the ACC after beating Notre Dame 91-69.
The Tar Heels needed a win like that after going 0-2 on their West Coast trip.
Forward Caleb Wilson continues to be awesome, but UNC has wasted some of his offensive performances because of its inability to play defense.
In conference play, UNC has the second-worst defensive efficiency, efficient field goal percentage against, turnover percentage and it's last in 3-point defense.
Luckily for UNC, it played a struggling Notre Dame team that had been without its best player and held the Irish to 69 points.
Seth Trimble has to step up for this team. He's been solid at scoring, but his defense is nowhere near where it needs to be.
Opponents are shooting 51% on the season when guarded by Trimble (via Synergy). He's too good an athlete to allow that to happen. UNC will need the guard in a big way on Saturday if it wants to win.
Freshman guard Derek Dixon has started the last two games for UNC and has made a difference. The freshman averaged 12.5 points per game in those two contests, while shooting a combined 9-of-17 from the field and 7-of-12 from 3.
Wilson and Henri Veesaar have been outstanding and have an intriguing matchup against Virginia's bigs, so a guy like Dixon will need to come through for the Tar Heels on the road.
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia continues to roll, as the Cavaliers are 16-2 this season and 5-1 in the ACC.
I wrote a preseason longshot piece for Action Network, and my pick was Virginia to win the ACC at 20-1 odds. Six games into conference play, and it looks like a top team in the ACC.
What makes this team so good offensively is its balanced scoring.
Forward Thijs de Ridder leads the team with 16 points per game, while four others average around 10 points per game or more.
Guard Malik Thomas started the year cold from three, but he's produced back-to-back games with six made 3s and is now facing the worst 3-point defense in the ACC.
Maybe I'm on the wrong timeline on Twitter (now X), but I feel as if Chance Mallory doesn't get talked about enough.
The guard has struggled shooting in the last two games. However, what better time to face one of the worst defenses in the conference than at home, where Mallory averages 11 points per game on 42% from 3.
How To Make UNC vs. Virginia Picks, Odds
The frontcourt matchup in this game is going to be a lot of fun to watch.
UNC has the best 2-point scoring offense in the ACC, and it's facing a Virginia team with the best 2-point defense.
The uncertainty and inconsistency in the backcourt for UNC have been one of the reasons for its struggles, and I expect that to continue at Virginia.
My Pick: Virginia -7.5
