The UNC Tar Heels take on the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington, KY. Tip-off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Kentucky is favored by -6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -260. The total is set at 163.5 points.
Here’s my UNC vs. Kentucky prediction and college basketball picks for December 2, 2025.
UNC vs Kentucky Prediction
My Pick: Kentucky -5.5 (Play to -9)
My UNC vs Kentucky best bet is on the Wildcats to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UNC vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 163.5 -110 / -110 | +210 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 163.5 -110 / -110 | -260 |
- UNC vs Kentucky spread: Kentucky -6
- UNC vs Kentucky over/under: 163.5 points
- UNC vs Kentucky moneyline: UNC +210, Kentucky -260
UNC vs Kentucky NCAAB Betting Preview
UNC Basketball
North Carolina started the season off 6-0, with a thrilling 87-74 home win over Darryn Peterson and Kansas in game two. However, after that Kansas game, senior Seth Trimble suffered an injury in the weight room, and the Tar Heels have definitely missed the impact of their starting two-guard.
Hubert Davis’ group took care of business against its next four opponents before falling to Michigan State, 74-58, on Thanksgiving.
Freshman Caleb Wilson has been an absolute star from the jump this season, averaging 19.9 points and 9.9 rebounds per game while already throwing down a bunch of highlight reel dunks. Wilson and prized portal pickup Henri Veesaar (15.9 points, 8.3 rebounds) form quite the frontcourt tandem in Chapel Hill.
Carolina grades out as the 45th-best offense nationally and 33rd-best defense, per KenPom. The main statistical strengths are elite 2-point defense (38.5%, 2nd best nationally) and defending without fouling (13th best FTA/FGA rate).
In classic Tar Heel fashion, UNC is the 11th-best rebounding team nationwide, bringing down 43.6 per game.
While Wilson, Veesaar and European import Luka Bogavac (12 points, 3.4 assists per game) have been great, the loss of Trimble has stung a lot, highlighting the mediocre play of Kyan Evans and Jarin Stevenson, plus the overall lack of depth.
Outside of that big three I mentioned, Carolina’s supporting cast contributes very little.
Kentucky Basketball
Kentucky ranks 11th in KenPom in year two under Mark Pope, but it's a tough team to have a strong feel on right now.
The Wildcats' 5-2 record consists of cupcake wins at home and two losses against elite teams. They have a 96-88 loss at Louisville in a hostile environment and an 83-66 Champions Classic loss vs Michigan State, where the Cats looked completely discombobulated.
With prized portal pickups Jaland Lowe and Jayden Quaintance out for the foreseeable future — and Mouhamed Dioubate likely out of action here as well — Pope’s team has taken a hit talent-wise.
However, Kentucky has one of the deepest rosters in the country, so it can still go nine deep down three bodies.
Kentucky’s offense is the 15th-fastest in the country. The Cats are 13th nationally in 2-point field goal percentage (62.3%), with driving lanes and easy looks opening up from Pope’s excellent offensive system and spacing.
That's what made that outlier performance against Michigan State so perplexing, as it’s the most disorganized and undisciplined I think I’ve ever seen a Pope team look.
Kentucky dismantled Loyola MD and Tennessee Tech following that loss to the Spartans, and the Cats looked elite on both ends once again.
That begs the question: How much weight should be given to the poor defense vs. Louisville and the disorganization vs. Michigan State?
UNC vs. Kentucky Betting Analysis
This feels like an absolute must have spot for Kentucky after those aforementioned losses to top programs.
UNC’s bigs definitely have an advantage on the interior, as being down Dioubate puts a lot of pressure on Malachi Moreno and Brandon Garrison to guard some really talented big bodies in Wilson and Veesaar.
Louisville’s Sananda Fru and Michigan State’s Jaxon Kohler had their way on the interior in those battles against Kentucky.
However, I honestly think those two could combine for 40+ and Kentucky could still win this game by double digits.
I think Otega Oweh and the rest of Kentucky’s guards will be able to get into the paint, make plays and create open looks from deep in this big spot against this UNC defense.
If the Kentucky offense is humming and playing with pace — as I expect it to be — then Bogavac/Evans and UNC’s supporting cast is going to have to step up big time to keep up in the scoring column.
In front of a raucous environment at Rupp Arena and against a UNC team badly missing a key player in Trimble on both ends of the floor, I like Kentucky’s chances to execute at a high level offensively and hang around defensively to get the win and cover the number.
Other angles I’d consider are Kentucky’s team total over and Caleb Wilson's points + rebounds prop.
My Pick: Kentucky -5.5 (Play to -9)
