Texas plays Purdue in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament in San Jose, California, on Thursday, March 26. Tip-off is set for 7:10 p.m. ET on CBS.
Purdue is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -345. Meanwhile, Texas is the underdog at +7.5 with a moneyline of +270. The total is set at 147.5 points.
Here’s my Texas vs. Purdue prediction and college basketball picks for Thursday, March 26.
Texas vs Purdue Odds, Spread, Pick
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+7.5 -105 | 147.5 -112o / -108u | +295 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-7.5 -115 | 147.5 -112o / -108u | -375 |
My Pick: Under 147.5
My Texas vs Purdue best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Texas vs Purdue Sweet 16 Betting Preview
Texas Longhorns Betting Preview
With its win over Gonzaga, Texas became the sixth play-in team to advance to the Sweet 16, the first since UCLA in 2021.
This is Texas' 15th appearance in the Sweet 16 and its first since 2023. This tournament run is the first time Texas has advanced to the Sweet 16 as an eight-seed or lower since 1997.
For Sean Miller, this is his ninth trip to the Sweet 16 in 21 seasons as a head coach.
The Longhorns came into the NCAA Tournament on a three-game losing streak and have since won three in a row thanks to their defensive turnaround.
Their defensive efficiency went from being 140th during their three-game losing streak to 15th during their current three-game winning streak. They're holding opponents to a 46.3% effective field goal percentage and 25.9% from 3.
Matas Vokietaitis continues to be a dominant presence down low for the Longhorns, averaging 18.3 points and 11 rebounds during the three-game winning streak.
Texas abused Gonzaga by throwing over the top of the Zags' post defense, leading to easy baskets.
The Longhorns will want to continue to utilize Dailyn Swain and Tramon Mark's size on the perimeter to throw over the top of smaller defenders, while Vokietaitis shields his defender off with a solid post-up.
Another way Vokietatis can score on offense is off the pick-and-roll, especially with Jordan Pope.
Pope's ability to create his own shot off of the dribble forces the roll man's defender to hedge on the perimeter longer, leading to an easier path for Vokietaitis to roll, as he did against Gonzaga.
If the hedge defender hurries to retreat against the roll, Pope can make a defense pay by stepping into a 3, where he's shooting 42.3% off the pick-and-roll.
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Preview
Purdue is looking to advance to its third Elite Eight in seven years with a win against Texas.
This is the Boilermakers third straight Sweet 16 appearance and their seventh in the last nine years.
Purdue is currently on a six-game winning streak since ending the regular season 2-4 in its last six games.
Like Texas, it's been Purdue's defense that's been the reason for its turnaround.
From February 17 to March 7, Purdue had the 224th-ranked defense in the country, according to Bart Torvik.
Since then, it's won six in a row while having the 38th-ranked defense in the country.
As for the offense, the Boilermakers were ranked second in the country during their 2-4 streak and are currently first in the country during their six-game winning streak (shooting 40.3% from 3).
Fletcher Loyer is arguably the main reason for that, shooting 21-of-42 (50%) from 3 in his last six games. On the season, Loyer ranks in the 95th percentile on catch-and-shoot jumpers, hitting 45% on 197 attempts.
Texas vs Purdue NCAA Tournament Pick
Miller and Matt Painter are currently tied for eighth for most career NCAA Tournament wins by active Division I coaches (25).
Both coaches have made significant strides with their defenses, which is the main reason why both teams are in the Sweet 16.
Defensively for Texas, can it contain Braden Smith's playmaking out of the two-man game while knowing where Fletcher Loyer is at all times?
For Purdue, can the perimeter defenders create enough on-ball pressure against Texas' wings that make them uncomfortable throwing over the top passes to Vokietaitis while he battles for position against Oscar Cluff?
I think the answer to both of those questions is yes.
With a week to prepare for each other, I trust both defenses to be ready.
My Pick: Under 147.5
Latest From Vegas Sportsbooks
Texas is the lone double-digit seed remaining, and the Longhorns have gotten some interest for the opening Sweet 16 tipoff, at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Still, BetMGM is an underdog fan.
"Purdue took a bunch of money at -6.5, but we're seeing buyback on Texas +7.5," trading manager Seamus Magee said. "I think by tip, we'd be happy to see Texas cover +6.5. And Texas outright would kill a ton of parlays."
That said, Magee is enthused about a potential Purdue-Arizona Elite 8 matchup. "It would be massive handle for the book, with two elite teams from legal states."
