The No. 11 Texas Longhorns play the No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs in the second round of the NCAA Tournament from Portland, Oregon. Tip-off is set for 7:10 p.m. ET on TBS.
Gonzaga is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -250. Meanwhile, Texas is the underdog at +6.5 with a moneyline of +205. The total is set at 146.5 points.
Here are my Texas vs. Gonzaga predictions and college basketball picks for March 21, 2026.
Texas vs. Gonzaga Prediction, Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 146.5 -112o / -108u | +205 |
| Gonzaga Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 146.5 -112o / -108u | -250 |
My Pick: Gonzaga -6.5 or Better
My Texas vs Gonzaga best bet is on the Bulldogs to cover. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Texas vs Gonzaga NCAA Tournament Betting Analysis
Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns continued a modern tradition, becoming the 13th team to win a First Four game in Dayton before then capturing a game in the Round of 64.
Texas is now on a bona fide hot streak after finishing the season in a nosedive. Sean Miller and company lost four of five to close regular-season play before losing their first game at the SEC Tournament to Ole Miss. This left the Longhorns from safely inside the bubble to bound for Dayton.
On Tuesday, Texas needed all 40 minutes to escape NC State, with a game-winning shot from Tramon Mark proving to be the difference.
After a cross-country flight to Portland, Texas took an early lead against BYU that grew throughout the game. BYU star AJ Dybantsa was excellent, with 35 points and 10 boards, yet he accounted for half of the Cougars' points. Dybantsa and Robert Wright III combined for 49 of BYU's 71 points, with only three other Cougars scoring.
BYU shot just 4-of-22 from long range.
Texas plays slowly on offense, with iso ball taking center stage. No SEC team had a lower assist rate, and the Longhorns ranked 347th nationally in that metric.
Defensively, Texas struggled to make impact plays. The Longhorns were mediocre — or worse — at forcing turnovers or accumulating blocks or steals, with a penchant to foul. The Longhorns ranked in the top 30 nationally in forcing teams off the 3-point line and into iso ball of their own, though those are ominous stats against this Gonzaga unit.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
With a late-night, ugly first-round win over Kennesaw State, Mark Few's program tied the record in the NCAA Tournament's modern era (64+ teams) of 17 straight years with a tourney victory.
That's more than double the second-longest active streak (Houston, which just won its first-round game for the eighth straight tourney) and one shy of the all-time record, set by North Carolina through the 1980s and 90s.
And while this team was good enough to continue that streak, Thursday's win certainly called into question the Zags' chances of a deep run this month.
Kennesaw State dragged the Zags into the mud, mucking up the game into a mess. Gonzaga shot just 3-of-18 from 3-point land and under 49% from the field, well below its season mark of nearly 60% inside the arc.
At one point in the first half, every Bulldog other than Graham Ike combined to shoot just 1-of-17 from the field.
Some of that could just be a shooting aberration, but it more reflects how this Gonzaga offense has played since losing Braden Huff to a dislocated knee cap in late January. Huff has been rumored to be eyeing a return next weekend, yet he won't face the Longhorns.
Without him, Gonzaga is incredibly dependent on Ike to score on post-ups on the low block, or for other Zags to hit shots when teams collapse on Ike or a driving Bulldog. When Gonzaga isn't hitting shots, the entire operation hits a bump in the road.
How To Make My Texas vs. Gonzaga NCAAB Pick and Best Bet
There's a major alert for some shooting regression in this game, especially based on Thursday's action. Gonzaga shot just 17% from long range, its second-worst performance of the season.
Meanwhile, Texas faced just 18% outside shooting from BYU, the Cougars' second-worst performance of the season.
This game will certainly be decided by more than just outside shooting, yet under the assumption that the Zags have a decent or better outside shooting game, a lot of other items start to fall into place. That likely creates more space for Ike to post on the block, which is where the Gonzaga offense thrives.
The Bulldogs ranked third nationally in percentage of points on 2-pointers and will be happy to spam Ike on the block, with cutters moving off him and high-low actions between bigs.
I'll take the Zags to cover.
My Pick: Gonzaga -6.5 or Better
