The San Diego State Aztecs take on the Houston Cougars in Las Vegas, NV, as part of the Players Era Festival. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on TNT.
Houston is favored by 13 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1000. The total is set at 126.5 points.
Here’s my San Diego State vs. Houston predictions and college basketball picks for November 30, 2024.
San Diego State vs Houston Prediction
My Pick: San Diego State +12.5
My San Diego State vs Houston best bet is on the Aztecs spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
San Diego State vs Houston Odds, Lines, Pick
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 126.5 -110o / -110u | +650 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 126.5 -110o / -110u | -1000 |
- San Diego State vs Houston spread: Houston -13
- San Diego State vs Houston over/under: 126.5 points
- San Diego State vs Houston moneyline: Houston -1000, San Diego State +650
- San Diego State vs Houston best bet: San Diego State +12.5
My San Diego State vs Houston College Basketball Betting Preview
Even though it lost to Gonzaga and Oregon by double digits, San Diego State has been solid overall this season without its second-leading scorer from 2023-24. Reese Waters remain out with a foot injury, but BJ Davis, Nick Boyd and Miles Byrd have picked up the scoring slack.
Most importantly for a Brian Dutcher-led team, the Aztecs are playing elite defense, ranking 11th in KenPom defensive efficiency ratings. And that's what matters most to this handicap.
Houston is also third in KenPom's defensive efficiency ratings, creating an all-defensive battle with a total that checks in at 126.
On top of that, both Houston and San Diego State are near the bottom of KenPom's adjusted tempo rankings.
With a total this low and the advanced stats checking out, that means points and possessions are going to be at a premium, putting the underdog in a favorable spot.
There's a legitimate concern about the Aztecs struggling against J'Wan Roberts and JoJo Tugler up front. The Aztecs rank just 227th in rebounding this season, and we know the Cougars are one of the tougher teams in the nation under Kelvin Sampson.
But Magoon Gwath (3.8 blocks per game) has been a defensive force in his 21.8 minutes a night, and Jared Coleman-Jones has the size to match up, as well.
Plus, it's not like this San Diego State team isn't tough. The Aztecs limited Ryan Kalkbrenner to just 11 points on 5-of-12 shooting in their 18-point victory over Creighton in their first game of this event.
I think this is too many points for a game that will likely be slow-paced and feature limited scoring between two physical squads.
