The Saint Louis Billikens take on the San Francisco Dons in San Francisco, Calif. Tip-off is set for 10:00 p.m. EST on ESPN+.
San Francisco is favored by -9 points on the spread with a moneyline of -370. The total is set at 151.5 points.
Here’s my Saint Louis vs. San Francisco predictions and college basketball picks for December 5, 2024.
Saint Louis vs San Francisco Prediction
My Pick: Saint Louis 1H +5
My Saint Louis vs San Francisco best bet is on the Billikens covering the first-half spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Saint Louis vs. San Francisco Odds
| Saint Louis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -108 | 151.5 -112o / -108u | +310 |
| San Francisco Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -112 | 151.5 -112o / -108u | -395 |
- Saint Louis vs San Francisco spread: Saint Louis +9 (-108), San Francisco -9 (-112)
- Saint Louis vs San Francisco over/under: 151.5 (-112o, -108u)
- Saint Louis vs San Francisco moneyline: Saint Louis +310, San Francisco -395
- Saint Louis vs San Francisco best bet: Saint Louis 1H +5
Spread
I'll pass on the full game spread but take the 1H.
Moneyline
No play on the ML
Over/Under
I lean towards the over
My Pick: Saint Louis 1H +5
San Francisco vs Saint Louis Betting Trends
Saint Louis vs San Francisco College Basketball Betting Preview
Saint Louis Basketball
The beginning of Josh Schertz's stint at Saint Louis isn't as rosy as his time in Terre Haute. The Billikens are 6-2, but nothing has come easily, especially in the past two games. Jackson State gave Saint Louis a real push after UMass-Lowell nearly sent the game OT the game prior.
Defense will never be SLU's calling card, but will the offense improve? I'd be stunned if it doesn't get better than the 102nd most efficient offense in America. Some of the numbers include the three games Saint Louis played without its best player, Robbie Avila.
In three games since returning, the Billikens topped 1.00 PPP in each game, but more is needed with the 242nd most efficient defense in the country.
Just like Schertz's teams at Indiana State, he's going to play five players on the perimeter and shoot a lot of 3s. The trio of Avila, Isaiah Swope, and Gibson Jimerson combine for 56 points per night. Jimerson is the Billikens top-scorer with 19 ppg, but there's no question about who SLU's most important player is — Avila. He's one of the best and most unique bigs in college hoops.
Don't get it twisted, though. Just because Saint Louis attempts 3s on 47% of its shot attempts, it's a very efficient offense from inside the arc. The Billikens' 57% two-point field goal percentage ranks 45th nationally, while their 36% from 3 ranks 72nd nationally.
My biggest concern about this Billikens team? Depth. Saint Louis has a condensed eight-man rotation, with most of the presumed depth pieces missing several games. The lack of bodies could prove problematic against a big, physical San Fransisco squad.
San Francisco Basketball
The Dons come into this tough home game with a 6-2 record and 5-0 at home, including a stout win over Boise State. The only two losses came against top-25 caliber teams. The first was against No. 16 Memphis and the other was against Clemson, who topped Kentucky last night. No bad losses here.
Second-year head coach Chris Gerlufsen is a defensive-minded coach who wants to force turnovers. That's worked so far, as the Dons boast an impressive 21% defensive turnover rate. In addition to San Francisco's strong turnover rate, it holds foes to just 43% shooting on 2s.
That speaks to the Dons' defensive upside because there are ups and downs with shooting, so it's tough to gauge if a team is good defensively or not based on 3-point percentage allowed. But two-point percentage and turnover rate are strong positive indicators.
San Francisco dipped into the portal to add a stout wing defender in Jason Rivera-Torres, who fits the Dons' style, and freshman phenom Tyrone Riley IV is a premier 3-and-D option.
Riley is one of three San Francisco players averaging double-digit points, joining leading-scorer Malik Thomas (17 ppg) and Marcus Williams (11 ppg). If you wanted to find one word to describe Thomas's season, strange is a fitting one. He's been terrific but is shooting 23% from 3, down a ton from 40% last year. Thomas is one of the main reasons for Dons' ability to score inside at will — ranking 25th in two-point field goal percentage.
If you can't shoot, you can't play. Both Gerlufsen and Schertz are modern coaches with rosters fit to shoot a barrage of jumpers. Even San Fran's bigs, Carlton Linguard and Nwendo Newbury, want to shoot it. That contributes to the Dons' high-volume shooting attack, as 41% of their field goals come from downtown.
Saint Louis vs. San Francisco Betting Analysis
Since I don't have faith in Saint Louis's depth, I'll look to target them for the first half. Getting off to a slow start has been a thing for the Dons — they trailed at half-time versus Cal Poly and Mercyhurst before pulling away.
If SLU gets hot quickly from 3, it could lead to a first-half cover. I just worry too much about potential foul trouble testing the Billikens' poor depth to back them +9.
