The Purdue Boilermakers take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in University Park, PA. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Penn State is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -120. The total is set at 150 points.
Here are my Purdue vs. Penn State predictions and college basketball picks for December 5, 2024.
Purdue vs Penn State Prediction
My Pick: Penn State -1
My Purdue vs Penn State best bet is on the Nittany Lions to cover the spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Purdue vs Penn State Odds, Spread
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 150 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 150 -110o / -110u | -120 |
- Purdue vs Penn State spread: Penn State -1.5
- Purdue vs Penn State over/under: 150 points
- Purdue vs Penn State moneyline: Penn State -120, Purdue +100
- Purdue vs Penn State best bet: Penn State -1
Purdue vs Penn State College Basketball Betting Preview
Purdue Basketball
Purdue doesn't have Zach Edey anymore, but Matt Painter is an elite coach for a reason. He knows how to maximize his team's talent and is fearless in adjusting rotations if it needs to happen.
Painter had no choice but to pivot from his bread and butter — starting a 7-footer once Daniel Jacobsen got hurt, and Will Berg clearly isn't a starter in the Big Ten. He's gone a lot smaller with Trey Kaufman-Renn at the five — who stands 6-9 and the second-tallest starter is Camden Heide at 6-7.
This Purdue team is different than any other in the past decade. It's a lot more skilled-based than a team that wants to tower over and overwhelm opponents.
There isn't another Edey, and likely never will be, but Kaufman-Renn is among the most productive bigs in the sport. The 6-9 forward has a dazzling 19 ppg, including a pair of 22+ point performances in the last two games. He'll need to use his wide array of post moves since he can't score over the 7-foot Yanic Konan Niederhauser.
The two other starters from last year's final four squads — Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer have remained consistent. Smith is one of the best floor generals in the game, posting 9.1 assists per night with a keen eye for pick & rolls. Meanwhile, Loyer is shooting over 58% from 3.
The key? Purdue needs a fourth scorer, whether it's Myles Colvin, Heide, or one of the freshman reserves. Colvin stepped up with 19 points against Ole Miss. Is that a precursor or just a one-game breakout? We'll see.
If there's one huge concern about Purdue, its defense is pretty mediocre. The Boilermakers rank 52nd nationally in defensive efficiency, largely due to their poor rim protection, as teams shoot 51% from inside the arc. Without a 7-footer, Purdue hasn't had much success containing drivers.
Penn State Basketball
It's a pretty huge test for the Penn State Nittany Lions, who have yet to beat a team inside the top 120 of KenPom this year. Penn State owns wins over Purdue Fort Wayne — the Horizon League preseason favs, and Virginia Tech, who looks like fodder at the bottom of the ACC. The lone top-100 opponent Penn State has played is Clemson, and the Tigers won convincingly.
The one thing a team needs to pull off an upset is a strong performance from a bonafide star. In this case, it's veteran guard Ace Baldwin. The Nittany Lions standout guard morphed into one of the top guards in the conference, posting 14 ppg, eight apg with stout on-ball defense. He's also improved as a shooter, connecting on 38% from 3 and 90% from the foul line.
People don't consider Mike Rhoades an offensive whiz, but Penn State is among the best at scoring. The Nittany Lions offense ranks 33rd in offensive efficiency per KenPom while posting the 11th-best EFG nationally, 13th-best two-point percentage, and 38th 3-point percentage.
Are the numbers a byproduct of playing the 336th easiest non-conference schedule in the country, or is Penn State actually good? It remains to be seen, but the team is talented, well-coached and balanced.
The balance is key, as Penn State has seven players averaging 6+ ppg and six players with 9+ ppg. Perhaps the most surprising is athletic 7-footer Niederhauser. The Northern Illinois transfer is the second-leading scorer and blocks nearly two shots per game. In this matchup, he'll need to impact the game more on the defensive than the offensive end.
Additionally, Penn State maintains a strong turnover rate under Rhoades, forcing giveaways at a 23% rate. The only real stain in Penn State's defensive profile is its struggles defending the arc. Opponents shoot 33% from 3 against Penn State, which isn't amazing but could be better.
Purdue vs. Penn State Betting Analysis
I've faded Purdue a couple of times and it's yielded mixed results. In the Big Ten opener for both teams, I think the Nittany Lions will have an infectious energy and make life difficult for Purdue's offense.
TKR has to face a lengthier defender; Smith can't crush Penn State in the P&R, as the Nittany Lions deploy a stout P&R defense. This just lines up for a classic Big Ten home "upset."
