The Pepperdine Waves take on the Gonzaga Bulldogs in Spokane, WA. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Gonzaga is favored by 28.5 points on the spread, and the total is set at 150.5 points.
Here’s my Pepperdine vs. Gonzaga predictions and college basketball picks for January 21, 2026.
Pepperdine vs Gonzaga Prediction
My Pick: Under 146.5 (Play to 144.5)
My Pepperdine vs Gonzaga best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Pepperdine vs. Gonzaga Odds, Spread
| Pepperdine Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+28.5 -110 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | OFF |
| Gonzaga Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-28.5 -110 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | OFF |
- Pepperdine vs Gonzaga spread: Gonzaga -28.5
- Pepperdine vs Gonzaga over/under: 150.5 points
Pepperdine vs Gonzaga NCAAB Betting Preview
Pepperdine Basketball
Pepperdine is in the midst of a tough stretch, as the Waves are 6-14 overall this season with two of those victories coming over non-Division I opponents in Life-Pacific and Lincoln University.
Pepperdine struggles mightily on the offensive end, as this group isn't equipped with shooters or guys who can stretch the floor consistently enough. The Waves turn the ball over a ton and get eaten alive on the glass every night.
Leading scorer Styles Phipps averages 12.5 points per game to pace Pepperdine, which has four players averaging double figures overall.
I struggle to see how Pepperdine has success in this one on the road.
Defensively, Pepperdine struggles to defend in the paint, where Gonzaga thrives. There's not a dominating post-presence, and while Danilo Dozic and Yonatan Levy have some size, they figure to struggle against the Zags, who average 48 points per game in the paint (first nationally).
I would expect Pepperdine to struggle, as it did in the first meeting (a 40-point home loss).
Gonzaga Basketball
Gonzaga comes in having won 12 straight games, and the Bulldogs are fresh off a season sweep of Seattle over the weekend.
Gonzaga is undefeated in WCC play and figures to continue its winning ways despite second-leading scorer Braden Huff being sidelined with an injury.
Graham Ike is an excellent post-player who should feast against the Waves. Ike averages 18 points and nine rebounds per game, but the contributions list is long for the Zags' offense.
Tyon Grant-Foster, Mario Saint-Supery and Jalen Warley are all capable of going off for 20 points on any given night. While the composite makeup of this team is different from prior Mark Few offenses, these guys are dangerous and can shoot the ball from anywhere on the floor.
The Zags play exquisite complementary defense and have the ninth-highest adjusted defensive efficiency rating, per KenPom. Gonzaga ranks 10th nationally in defensive field goal percentage, sixth in preventing offensive rebounds and 29th in turnovers.
Nearly every conference opponent gets thrown in the blender against these guys, as they force long stretches of empty possessions and frustrated opponents. Pepperdine isn't equipped to threaten this defense.
Pepperdine vs. Gonzaga Betting Analysis
Gonzaga opened up as 28-point favorites in the contest with a total set at 146.5. I like the under.
The Zags, who have unbelievably won 50 straight games in this series dating back to 2002, have been dealing with some injuries to key players in the frontcourt.
Huff has been out with injury and will remain out, but Ike went down late in the win against Washington State and missed the Zags' last contest against Seattle.
Pepperdine has the worst interior defense in the WCC, and the Waves aren't quipped to defend the post.
Ike is a game-time decision in this one, but given how the first meeting played out between these two and with USF and Saint Mary’s looming, I can't imagine that Few wants Ike playing significant time if he's not completely 100%.
There's just simply no need. I expect controlled minutes for Ike if he goes, and long stretches where reserve post players log significant minutes. This will impact the offensive output for Gonzaga, although the drop in production won't cost the Zags here.
The Zags were able to grind out a defensive win against Seattle and I could see a similar game flow in this one. There should be no urgency to push the pace against the Waves for a full 40 minutes, and the second half could become a clock grinder once Gonzaga gets up 20.
The smaller and quicker lineup used against Seattle really allowed for Gonzaga to apply more on-ball pressure and create some defensive havoc against the Redhawks.
I think we'll see enough of a defensive-focused game on Wednesday. While Few tries to figure out the right combos on offense, we'll still receive maximum defensive effort against a Pepperdine team that simply can't score.
My Pick: Under 146.5 (Play to 144.5)
