The Northwestern Wildcats take on the USC Trojans in Los Angeles, CA. Tip-off is set for 11 p.m. ET on BTN.
USC is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -280. The total is set at 149.5 points.
Here are my Northwestern vs. USC predictions and college basketball picks for January 21, 2026.
Northwestern vs USC Prediction
My Pick: USC -6.5 (Play to -8.5)
My Northwestern vs USC best bet is on the Trojans to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Northwestern vs. USC Odds, Spread
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | -280 |
- Northwestern vs USC spread: USC -6.5
- Northwestern vs USC over/under: 149.5 points
- Northwestern vs USC moneyline: Northwestern +230, USC -280
Northwestern vs USC NCAAB Betting Preview
Northwestern Basketball
Northwestern is last in the country in KenPom’s luck rating.
Chris Collins and the Wildcats are 8-10 overall with a 0-7 start to Big Ten play. Northwestern sits 70th on KenPom and is better than its record suggests, with six losses coming by fewer than six points.
Things worsened last week against elite competition, as the Wildcats lost by double digits at home to both Illinois and Nebraska.
Nick Martinelli can only do so much. He's the second-leading scorer in the country at 23.7 points per game, despite opponents game-planning almost entirely around him. He's highly effective playing in the lane off backdowns (drawing fouls), and he even steps out and shoots lights out from deep (53%).
Arrinten Page is a skilled big man who can be a playmaker, and Jayden Reid ranks 17th nationally in assist rate. Outside of those three, this roster is very limited. Northwestern takes excellent care of the basketball, ranking second nationally in turnover rate and seventh in assist rate.
However, the Wildcats have struggled mightily from 3-point range at 31.5%, and their supporting cast has been underwhelming.
Northwestern has been crushed on the offensive glass this season, ranking in the bottom 50 nationally in defensive rebounding rate. The Wildcats' defensive efficiency falls outside the top 100 on KenPom, but opponent average possession length is the longest in the country.
Defensively, this group is connected and smart, slowing teams down and really guarding. However, it's not very disruptive and struggles to finish possessions with rebounds.
USC Basketball
USC is 14-4 on the season. Credit to Eric Musselman, because that record doesn't reflect the turbulence of the campaign in L.A.
After getting pummeled by 30 points in back-to-back road losses to Michigan and Michigan State earlier this month, USC responded with an overtime road win at Minnesota and a 17-point victory over Maryland. On Saturday, the Trojans pushed Purdue to the limit, falling 69-64.
The big story for USC is that Alijah Arenas is making his season debut on Wednesday. The five-star guard tore his meniscus and was involved in a serious car crash over the past nine months, but he's now fully healthy and ready to make an impact for a team that desperately needs him.
Rodney Rice looked like one of the best guards in the country before suffering a season-ending injury in Maui around Thanksgiving. Amarion Dickerson may also be done for the season, leaving USC short on playable bodies.
Musselman was forced to get creative, bringing in Kam Woods, who went unclaimed in the portal, and he's struggled in game action. He's been disruptive defensively, recording multiple steals in four of his six appearances, but he's shooting just 25% from the field.
USC has leaned heavily on Chad Baker-Mazara and Ezra Ausar, two big, physical veteran forwards who can score through contact and get to the free-throw line. They're a major reason why USC ranks sixth nationally in free-throw rate.
Northwestern vs. USC Betting Analysis
Sometimes it feels like Northwestern only has three Big Ten players at the moment. As good as Martinelli is, and as competitive as this group can be by taking elite care of the basketball, riding his individual scoring ability and playing connected on the defensive end, it still isn’t enough to win games.
The margin for error is just so slim for the Wildcats.
I was leaning towards USC here prior to the Arenas announcement. Even if he has some rust to knock off, he's a major talent upgrade in the backcourt, and his return should inject some really strong energy into the entire team.
I'll take the Trojans at this number, which feels like a good price.
My Pick: USC -6.5 (Play to -8.5)
