The Northern Iowa Panthers take on the UIC Flames in St. Louis, MO, in the Missouri Valley Tournament title game. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on CBS.
Northern Iowa is favored by 2.5 points on the spread, and the total is set at 123.5 points. Northern Iowa is the favorite with a moneyline of -170.
Here’s my Northern Iowa vs. UIC predictions and college basketball picks for March 8, 2026.
Northern Iowa vs UIC Prediction
My Pick: Under 124.5 (Play to 123)
My Northern Iowa vs UIC best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Northern Iowa vs. UIC Odds
| N. Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 123.5 -108o / -112u | -170 |
| UIC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 123.5 -108o / -112u | +142 |
Northern Iowa vs UIC Betting Preview
Northern Iowa Basketball
Northern Iowa is attempting to keep its NCAA Tournament drought from reaching a full decade. The Panthers last danced in 2016, when Texas A&M came back from down 12 with 35 seconds left to beat them.
This iteration of Northern Iowa follows the same core principles — playing slow and defending hard for 40 minutes to win games. The Panthers held Evansville to 59 points in the first round of Arch Madness, Illinois State to 52 in the second round and Bradley to 69 in their latest victory.
Ben Jacobson is one of the best defensive coaches in the country. He leads this Panthers squad to the No. 22 spot in defensive efficiency (per KenPom).
The leader in all-time MVC coaching wins, Jacobson runs some pack-line defense concepts, which coaches implement to keep the ball out of the paint and force teams to play at a slower pace.
The Panthers force teams to shoot 3s at a 42% rate, and they hold foes to 28% shooting from deep (third nationally).
They also thrive at the little things — opponents grab offensive rebounds just 26% of the time, while they send teams to the line 29% of the time.
The offensive end is a bit of a struggle for Northern Iowa. The Panthers rank 177th in offensive efficiency (per KenPom), and they shoot 34% from downtown.
Oftentimes, the Panthers' offense is most effective when feeding the bigs, Will Hornseth and Tristan Smith.
Hornseth is an old-school big, flashing, elite footwork with terrific passing ability from the post. The 6-foot-8 big man averages 11 points with 4.7 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game. Smith is the X-factor for this UNI team. When he got hurt in January, the Panthers dropped five straight games.
Veteran point guard Trey Campbell brings everything together. He started 129 games in his four seasons at Northern Iowa. As a senior, Campbell leads the team with 13.5 points, 3.8 assits and 1.6 steals per game. Campbell is a stout defender and has to contain UIC stud guard Elijah Crawford.
UIC Basketball
On January 4, UIC dropped its eighth straight game against a Division I opponent and fell to 0-4 in MVC play. The Flames caught fire, going 14-4 in the season's final two months.
You can attribute some of the losses to Crawford's injury. He's the best player for UIC, and the team lost just five games with him in the lineup. Crawford scored 14 points with nine assists in the Flames' win at Northern Iowa in January.
During UIC's hot 18-game heater, it ranks 30th in defensive efficiency, per Bart Torvik. The Flames have a more aggressive defense than Northern Iowa, as shown by their 19% turnover rate. Opponents also shoot 3s 46% of the time against UIC and make 32% of them.
On the interior, the Flames have a pair of terrific defensive bigs in Abdul Momoh and Jayce Nathaniel. Momoh leads the team with 1.7 blocks per game.
Don't sleep on UIC's positional length, either. Four of the five starters are 6-foot-5 or taller, and Mekhi Lowery's ability to play bigger than his 6-foot-7 frame allows him to play a small-ball four role.
The Flames' offense on the first shot is pretty poor. They hit just 31% from 3 and 50% on 2s, but their 36% offensive rebound rate saves them from being a horrific offense.
So, what will give? Northern Iowa is elite on the glass and UIC has to get offensive rebounds to score consistently.
Northern Iowa vs. UIC Betting Analysis
I'm going with the under here.
Look at the tempo: UIC is 230th and UNI is 363rd out of 365 teams. The first meeting between the two was 60-5 and the second was 69-61.
Then, we can put the Enterprise Center factor in. That building is a house of horrors for shooters. That should lead to a real slog and game in the 50s or low-60s.
My Pick: Under 124.5 (Play to 123)
