The NC State Wolfpack take on the Virginia Cavaliers in the 2026 ACC Tournament in Charlotte, NC., on Thursday, March 12. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Virginia is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -300. NC State, meanwhile, enters as a +6.5 underdog and is +240 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 150 total points.
Here’s my NC State vs. Virginia predictions and college basketball picks for Thursday, March 12.
NC State vs Virginia Predictions and Picks
My Pick: Virginia -5.5
My NC State vs Virginia best bet is on the Cavaliers against the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
NC State vs Virginia Odds, Betting Line
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 150 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 150 -110o / -110u | -300 |
- NC State vs Virginia Spread: Virginia -5.5
- NC State vs Virginia Over/Under: 150 points
- NC State vs Virginia Moneyline: NC State +240, Virginia -300
NC State vs Virginia Expert NCAAB pick for ACC Tournament
Virginia limped to the finish line a bit. The Cavaliers sat 14th in KenPom before Duke beat them by 26. Then, Virginia snuck by, but failed to cover in home games against Virginia Tech and Wake Forest.
I expect an improved outing this time around.
Virginia had NC State's number all season, as it beat the Pack by 15 in Raleigh and also beat them by 29 at home.
A big part of that was NC State's inability to defend the perimeter. Pittsburgh, a terrible shooting squad, went 12-for-27 from deep in the last round of the NCAA Tournament against NC State's embarrassing defense.
Virginia is a high-volume shooting team, attempting 3s at a 46% rate and hitting 35% of them.
The shooting from Virginia can sting NC State in multiple ways. For one, the Cavs have good shooters. Secondly, they grab 38% of their missed shots (sixth-best nationally), and NC State struggles on the glass.
Virginia also has a considerable size advantage over NC State. Thijs De Ridder, who leads Virginia in scoring, is 6-foot-9 — the same height as Ven-Allen Lubin, NC State's center. De Ridder will match up with the 6-foot-6 Darrion Williams at the four.
The real advantage is with 7-footer Johann Grunloh, who towers over Lubin. The defense from Grunloh should deter Quadir Copeland and NC State's guard from driving.
Will Wade's team has one path to covering the spread here: shooting the 3-ball well. The Wolfpack have one of the best 3-point shooting units in the country, launching triples at a 44% rate and making 38% of them.
Paul McNeil Jr., Williams and Tre Holloman are each shooting around 40% from deep on over 100 attempts.
Here's what it boils down to: We know what NC State is. The Pack don't defend and have to shoot 3s to have a chance. In contrast, Virginia can win in myriad ways, whether it be rebounding, defense or scoring. I trust that path to covering more than NC State's.
Also, the "it's hard to beat a team three times" thing is a total myth. Virginia owns NC State.
My Pick: Virginia -5.5
