The Minnesota Golden Gophers (11-9, 3-6 Big Ten) take on the Michigan State Spartans (17-2, 8-0) in East Lansing, MI. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Michigan State is favored by 14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1200. The total is set at 139.5 points.
Here are my Minnesota vs. Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks for January 28, 2025.
Minnesota vs Michigan State Prediction, Picks
My Pick: Minnesota +13.5 (Play to +12.5)
My Minnesota vs Michigan State best bet is on the Golden Gophers spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Minnesota vs Michigan State Odds, Betting Lines, Spread
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 139.5 -106o / -114u | +720 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 139.5 -106o / -114u | -1200 |
- Minnesota vs Michigan State spread: Michigan State -13.5
- Minnesota vs Michigan State over/under: 139.5
- Minnesota vs Michigan State moneyline: Michigan State ML -1200, Minnesota ML +750
- Minnesota vs Michigan State best bet: Minnesota +13.5 (Play to +12.5)
Minnesota vs Michigan State NCAAB Preview
According to Haslametrics, the Golden Gophers have significant wind in their sails.
Minnesota’s “momentum,” which calculates how improved its play has been on both ends of the floor, is clocking in at the third-highest among power conference teams.
In the past four games, Ben Johnson’s team has completely altered its ceiling for the season. During this run, the Gophers are 4-0 against the spread and 3-1 straight up — and all three wins were outright upsets.
They won as 11-point home underdogs to Michigan, besting the Wolverines in overtime with a 40-foot buzzer beat from the logo by Dawson Garcia. They followed that up by handling the Hawkeyes in Iowa City as nine-point ‘dogs before returning home to dominate nationally ranked Oregon.
During this run, Garcia has been nothing short of sensational. He became the first Gopher since 2019 to score 20-plus points in five straight games. And his impact isn’t just limited to putting the ball in the basket. The 6-foot-11 super senior is averaging 24 points, eight rebounds and two "stocks" — steals + blocks — across those five contests.
Realistically, if the Gophers want to go dancing for the first time in six years, they’ll need to reach at least 20 wins. Sitting at 11-9 overall, they’ll need to win at least eight of the next 11 games before grabbing a win or two in Indianapolis at the Big Ten Tournament.
That would be yeoman’s work, but it's worth noting that their rugged schedule gives them ample opportunity to score Quad 1 wins, starting with Michigan State on Tuesday night.
Unsurprisingly, Michigan State looks the part of a supremely well-coached team.
Under Tom Izzo, the Spartans have been flirting with top-20 rankings on both ends of the floor. Those KenPom thresholds are important because nine of the last 10 national champions have possessed offensive and defensive efficiency rankings inside the top 25 with the exception of UConn in 2014 (39th O, 10th D).
And since I gave the Gophers their flowers, it’s only fair to point out that Michigan State has been on the warpath since Feast Week.
Sparty has rattled off 12 straight wins, seven by double digits. But it’s clear oddsmakers have caught on and are now prohibitively pricing Izzo’s bunch.
After covering in eight of its nine games from Nov. 27-Jan. 12, Michigan State has come back down to earth, at least against the spread.
Sparty has dropped its last two games when favored by north of two possessions. Penn State scored 85 on the Spartans in East Lansing, covering easily as 11-point road 'dogs, and Rutgers stormed back late at Madison Square Garden to cover as eight-point underdogs on Saturday.
I’ll gladly take the points here for three main reasons: Minnesota’s hot streak, this being a sleepy spot for MSU and the likelihood of this game being played at a snail’s pace.
After returning home from New York City, Michigan State is already preparing for its West Coast road trip. It'll leave for Los Angeles on Thursday before playing USC on Saturday and UCLA next Tuesday.
And when it comes to betting underdogs, my favorites are efficient teams that play slowly.
Of the 40 slowest teams in America, 15 rank inside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. Those 15 teams have covered 59% of the time as underdogs this season, and only two have losing records ATS when catching points (UVA, App State).
Minnesota’s pace (357th) and defensive acumen (84th) check both boxes.
