The Michigan State Spartans take on the Purdue Boilermakers in West Lafayette, Indiana. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Purdue is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -270. The total is set at 140.5 points.
Here’s my Michigan State vs. Purdue prediction and college basketball picks for February 26, 2026.
Michigan State vs Purdue Prediction
My Pick: Purdue ML -270
My Michigan State vs Purdue best bet is on the Boilermakers to win outright. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan State vs. Purdue Odds
| Michigan St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 140.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 140.5 -110o / -110u | -270 |
- Michigan State vs Purdue spread: Purdue -6.5
- Michigan State vs Purdue over/under: 140.5 points
- Michigan State vs Purdue moneyline: Michigan State +220, Purdue -270
Michigan State vs Purdue College Basketball Betting Preview
Michigan State Basketball
Michigan State enters Thursday's Big Ten clash with Purdue behind a 22-5 record.
Tom Izzo’s bunch currently ranks 13th, having won three of its past four games prior to the Spartans’ road trip to West Lafayette.
In a remarkable 31st season at the helm, Izzo is on track to lead his Spartans to a 28th NCAA Tournament in his tenure. The future Hall of Fame head coach has missed just one NCAA Tournament since 1998.
Leading the charge for Izzo’s offense is 6-foot-2 point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. The Spartans’ guard is scoring over 15 points per game in his third season in East Lansing. While Fears has proven to be an elite scorer over the course of the season, the redshirt sophomore has been even more effective as the team’s floor general. Fears is dishing out 9.2 assists per contest, leading all of college basketball.
Michigan State has an extremely well-rounded lineup, with four of its five starters posting double-figure scoring efforts in 2026.
Alongside Fears, Izzo’s backcourt features 6-foot-6 junior guard Coen Carr, an extremely versatile two-way guard who has a great case for the most athletic player in the country.
The Spartans’ offense is scoring 79 points per game this season and ranks in the top 40 in the country in offensive efficiency per Haslametrics.
While Michigan State has been very solid offensively for the majority of its 2026 campaign, it’s the Spartans’ play on the other end of the floor that makes them one of the most dangerous teams in the country.
Izzo has built a long career on his prowess as a defensive mastermind, boasting some of the best defensive teams in college basketball across three decades.
The Spartans rank sixth nationally in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. They're allowing just over 63 points per game this season, an unbelievably impressive figure while playing an extremely difficult Big Ten schedule loaded with opponents boasting exceptional offensive firepower.
The Spartan frontcourt features a couple of fantastic rim protectors in 6-foot-11 senior forward Carson Cooper and 6-foot-9 senior Jaxon Kohler.
Though Kohler is scoring over 12 points per game in his final collegiate season, it’s his effectiveness on the glass that provides the most value to this Michigan State squad, ranking 28th in college basketball with 9.3 rebounds per contest.
On the defensive end, the two Spartan forwards have made it extremely difficult for opposing forwards to find open looks near the basket.
Michigan State is posting an unbelievably impressive +12.3 scoring margin in 2026, and its defense will surely be put to the test on the road versus a Purdue lineup that matches the Spartans’ experience.
Purdue Basketball
College basketball’s eighth-ranked Boilermakers look to build upon an unbelievably dominant 30-point rout over the Hoosiers this past weekend.
Purdue enters Thursday night’s matchup with Michigan State with a 22-5 overall record on the season.
After Matt Painter’s bunch suffered its fifth loss of the season in a close-fought defeat to the nation’s top team, Michigan, Purdue put any doubt of its status as a 2026 title contender to rest.
Painter continues his reign of dominance as a head coach, with Purdue about to make its 11th consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance.
Purdue has been exceptional offensively, with point guard Braden Smith leading the charge. The 6-foot senior is scoring 15 points per game in his final season in West Lafayette while dishing out nine assists per game.
Smith is coming off an incredible junior campaign last season with consensus First Team All-American honors. The Purdue guard won both the Big Ten Player of the Year award and the Bob Cousy Award for the nation’s top point guard.
The senior leads a Boilermaker offense that ranks second in the country in offensive efficiency, according to Haslametrics.
Alongside Smith, fellow senior guard Fletcher Loyer is having a huge season of his own, scoring over 14 points per game.
6-foot-9 forward Trey Kaufman-Renn adds further experience to Painter’s lineup, scoring over 12 points per game, along with nine rebounds on average. He'll play a big role against a Spartan frontcourt that features a ton of size.
The Boilermakers rank 19th nationally in defensive efficiency, with Painter’s experienced defense allowing opponents just 68 points per game this season.
Michigan State vs. Purdue Betting Analysis
We are in for one of the best Big Ten matchups of the year on Thursday night as these two conference foes look to solidify their NCAA Tournament resumes with March just around the corner.
Per ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, the Boilermakers are currently projected to receive a top-two seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, with Michigan State not far behind on the four-seed line — presenting both teams with a big opportunity for another Quad I victory in Thursday’s Big Ten clash.
While Michigan State has proved to be one of the most balanced teams in college basketball, Painter’s bunch thrives on its home floor at Mackey Arena and will surely be looking to bounce back from its home loss to Michigan just a week ago.
As such, I'm inclined to take a chance on Purdue in this spot to pick up a huge conference victory, with the Boilermakers already having dropped three games in West Lafayette this season.
I am not crazy about laying points on the home favorite in this spot in what should be a very closely contested matchup over all 40 minutes. But I will be backing Purdue on the moneyline to prevail outright in Thursday night’s conference battle.
My Pick: Purdue ML -270
