The Merrimack Warriors take on the Saint Mary's Gaels in Moraga, CA. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Saint Mary's is favored by 20.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -3500. The total is set at 128.5 points.
Here are my Merrimack vs. Saint Mary's predictions and college basketball picks for December 19, 2024.
Merrimack vs Saint Mary's Prediction
My Pick: Merrimack +21 (Play to +17)
My Merrimack vs Saint Mary's best bet is on the Warriors spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Merrimack vs Saint Mary's Odds, Lines, Pick
| Merrimack Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -110 | 128.5 -110 / -110 | +1500 |
| Saint Mary's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -110 | 128.5 -110 / -110 | -3500 |
- Merrimack vs Saint Mary's spread: Saint Mary's -20.5
- Merrimack vs Saint Mary's over/under: 128.5 points
- Merrimack vs Saint Mary's moneyline: Saint Mary's -3500, Merrimack +1500
- Merrimack vs Saint Mary's best bet: Merrimack +21 (Play to +17)
My Merrimack vs Saint Mary's College Basketball Betting Preview
Merrimack Basketball
Merrimack has been a thorn in the side of teams from bigger conferences all year. It began by giving a star-studded Rutgers squad all it could handle. Then the Warriors blew a double-digit lead to UTSA before losing to Stanford by six.
Blowing out Merrimack is a pretty tough task, given the Warriors' deliberate tempo (316th in adjusted tempo), ability to force turnovers and stellar guard play.
The stellar guard play begins with MAAC Player of the Year frontrunner Adam "Budd" Clark, whose mixture of scoring knack and quickness makes him tough to contain. The Philly-born sophomore averages over 20 points with five assists and shoots 47% from the field.
He isn't a perimeter threat, but he can zoom past the Gaels' guards defensively. Against Stanford two nights ago, Clark scored 32 points on 14-of-21 shooting. That came on the road against a high-major program, so it doesn't matter who Clark is facing — he's getting buckets.
Clark is the only Merrimack player to average double-digits. It will be important for Sean Trumper, Bryan Etumnu or Devon Savage to help Clark make the path to covering the spread easier.
Keep an eye on Matt Becht, as well. The non-D-I transfer can help solve some of Merrimack's shooting issues — it shoots just 30% from 3 and Becht is at 29%. He's known as a perimeter marksmen, though, and he seemed to find some confidence the other night.
Most people see zones as fairly passive defenses. You will not see a ton of ball pressure in traditional zone defenses, but Joe Gallo is the architect of the "Make Chaos" zone, which creates turnovers 20% of the time.
The amount of turnovers Merrimack forces makes it a tough out in any game.
Saint Mary's Basketball
The main way to expose Merrimack's stout defense is by crashing the offensive glass to create extra possessions, which is a downside of deploying a zone defense.
Saint Mary's prides itself on offensive rebounds, as it boasts a dominant 40.6% offensive rebounding percentage.
Saint Mary's has two of the WCC's best bigs. Arizona transfer Paulius Murauskas has emerged as a key cog for the Gaels, while Mitchell Saxen has a 16% offensive rebound rate (13th nationally). Keep an eye on Murauskas' status in this one — he played just 14 minutes in Saturday's loss to Boise State.
Randy Bennett has yet another elite defensive team on his hands. The Gaels are the 27th-most efficient defense in America, per KenPom.
Saint Mary's game plan is to slow opponents down and bait them into late-clock 2s. The plan has largely benefitted the Gaels, but the UTSA game showed some cracks in the team's defense, as Primo Spears and Marcus Millender used their speed to score.
There might not be a speedier, craftier guard in the mid-major realm than Merrimack's star, Clark.
Early on, Saint Mary's appeared more offensive-centric than defensive. Things have shifted, as the Gaels have failed to score more than 1.09 PPP in any of the past four games. That number works to beat teams in rock fights, but it's not conducive for blowing teams out.
Arguably, the most concerning part of SMC's offense is its shooting struggles, as it hits just 32% from 3. In this particular game, though, Saint Mary's will have a chance to exploit Merrimack's defense with shooting.
Reigning WCC Player of the Year Augustus Marciliuonis is a terrific talent, averaging over 14 points and six assists per game. However, he's shooting just 30% from 3, and the best shooter who is starting for the Gaels is Luke Barrett at 35%.
Merrimack vs. Saint Mary's Betting Analysis
As of writing, the line currently sits at Saint Mary's -21. That is just too many points.
These teams play two of the slowest tempos in America, Merrimack has some peskiness and Saint Mary's has an inability to blow teams out.
That all bodes well for a Warriors cover.
Saint Mary's has won just one game by 20+ points this year — a 71-36 win over USC during Feast Week. That was an uninspired performance from the Trojans. Meanwhile, Merrimack loves the underdog mentality and won't be scared of the road environment.
