The Maryland Terrapins take on the Florida Gators in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 7:39 p.m. ET on TBS.
Florida is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -305. The total is set at 156.5 points.
Here’s my Maryland vs. Florida predictions and college basketball picks for March 27, 2025.
Maryland vs Florida Prediction
My Pick: Maryland +6.5 (Play to +5.5)
My Maryland vs Florida best bet is on the Terps spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Maryland vs Florida Odds
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | +245 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | -305 |
- Maryland vs Florida spread: Florida -6.5
- Maryland vs Florida over/under: 156.5 points
- Maryland vs Florida moneyline: Florida -305, Maryland +245
- Maryland vs Florida best bet: Maryland +6.5 (Play to +5.5)
My Maryland vs Florida Sweet 16 Betting Preview
Coming into the Big Dance, Florida was the trendiest title pick due to its hot finish to the season. The Gators had to fight hard to get to the Sweet 16, though, as UConn wanted a chance for a three-peat.
On the flip side, Maryland is the most fortunate member of the Sweet 16. Colorado State led with 3.4 seconds left, but star freshman Derik Queen saved the day.
Both Maryland and Florida are first in two major categories in the last six weeks. The Terrapins are No. 1 in defensive efficiency since February 1. On the other hand, Florida is the best offensive team in America in the same span.
Can Maryland slow down Florida's dominant offense? The Terps have to slow the game down to have a real shot. They rank 194th in adjusted tempo compared to Florida's 52nd ranking in the same category.
If Maryland can get the game into the half court — which likely stems from getting defensive stops — that's a huge path to it covering.
The main source for Maryland's defensive success is limiting teams from the perimeter. Opponents are shooting just 28% from downtown in the last 13 games against the Terps.
I don't see a ton of regression coming, either. The Terps' defense is truly elite, and Kevin Willard is one of the top defensive coaches in the sport.
Coach Willard will need shooting from his guards on the other end of the floor, though. The Terps play a two big-system with Queen and Julian Reese, only one of which is a somewhat capable shooter. That makes the "Crab Five's" perimeter even more important.
Oddly, Maryland is a poor 2-point shooting squad (47% from 2) despite having two post studs, and that's why Ja'Kobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice and Selton Miguel have to hit shots for it to reach its full potential.
If the Terps struggle to capitalize on the one thing holding back Florida from being elite (49.3% 2-pt), then it could be a tough game — unless it goes off from 3.
Gillespie is the key for Maryland. He's averaging 14.6 points and five assists per game while shooting 40% from downtown. He'll have a tough matchup against All-American Walter Clayton Jr., so he must have a strong performance.
The Terps are elite at containing the two main components of Florida's offense — transition scoring and shooting. The Gators get off spot-up jumpers on 21% of their possessions (0.998 PPP) and play in transition 19% of the time (1.203 PPP).
Conversely, Maryland ranks in the 90th percentile in spot-up defense and 96th percentile in transition defense. It'll be pretty tough for Florida's elite offense to look elite against a top notch defense.
Florida's guards can also be a bit streaky. Clayton struggled in the first half versus UConn before erupting in the second half. Alijah Martin can be a bit erratic from downtown, and Will Richard is a strong third option.
But with a team that shoots 3s on 43% of its field goals, that leaves some room for variance.
The Gators as 6.5-point favorites is a bit too rich for my blood. The Terps are legitimately good and should give Florida enough of a push with their defense.
