The Maine Black Bears take on the Navy Midshipmen in Philadelphia, PA.
Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Here’s my Maine vs. Navy predictions and college basketball picks for December 1, 2024.
Maine vs Navy Prediction
My Pick: Maine ATS
My Maine vs Navy best bet is on the Black Bears spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Maine vs Navy Odds
| Maine Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | OFF N/A | OFF |
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | OFF N/A | OFF |
- Maine vs Navy best bet: Maine ATS
Spread
I like Maine here.
Moneyline
I have no play on the ML.
Over/Under
I lean towards the under.
My Pick: Maine ATS
Maine vs Navy College Basketball Betting Preview
Maine Basketball
Maine is the same team it was a season ago — a super gritty, athletic squad that wants to force turnovers and turn defense into offense. The Black Bears force turnovers on 19% of their defensive possessions, which puts them 53rd nationally.
If you didn't include the score from Saturday's loss to Penn, you would have guessed Maine won. The script went exactly to plan, as the Black Bears forced 13 turnovers and held the Quakers to 6-of-18 from 3 compared to their own 42%.
What went wrong is fouls, as Penn spent a majority of the day attempting free throws (25 compared to Maine's four).
An issue that has plagued the Black Bears for years continues to be a problem. That's perimeter shooting, as Maine shoots just 26% from 3 this year and leading-scorer AJ Lopez is the only Black Bear hitting more than 33% from deep.
I had hoped adding lengthy wing Christopher Mantis would help, but he's shooting only 31% from 3. Not being able to knock down jumpers really limits this Maine offense, so that will have to change.
One of the big problems for Navy defensively is its propensity for fouling. It ranks 334th nationally in free throws allowed, feeding into Maine's strength (it shoots 80% from the line).
Though Maine can't shoot from downtown, guard Kellan Tynes is 88% from the line, athletic forward Quion Burns is 78% and Lopez is 95%.
If Maine can successfully get to the hoop, it will have success scoring or drawing fouls. Navy can't stay in front of Maine's athletic guards.
Navy Basketball
The Midshipmen are the smallest team in the country, starting two sub-six-foot players and four players below 6-foot-4.
Coach Ed DeChellis needs his lone big-body — Aidan Kehoe — to stay out of foul trouble or Navy has no one to compete with Maine on the glass. Kehoe has developed nicely, jumping from 3.2 points last season to 10.8 points and 8.8 rebounds per game in 2024-25.
However, he scored four points on 2-of-6 shooting in his past two games.
Moreover, Navy isn't a very good offensive team; it relies on Austin Benigni drawing fouls as its best source of scoring. A 5-foot-10 junior, Benigni leads the Mids with 17.8 points, but he shoots just 37% from the field and seldom takes shots from 3.
The good news is he draws fouls at the second-highest rate in the country, but his propensity for foul-baiting leads to ill-advised shots.
The proper way to defend Maine is probably sticking to zone, but Navy isn't a zone team. The Mids mix zone in occasionally, but it's not the bread and butter of DeChellis' DNA.
But it's not like the Navy's defense is good in man-to-man anyways; it ranks just 311th in defensive efficiency.
Also, 2-3 zones don't have the same effectiveness without length to deflect passes and clog up lanes.
At its core, Navy is built to shoot it well from 3 based on how small it plays. But shooting just 31% from deep on 41% of its shot attempts won't get the job done against the Black Bears.
I think Sam Krist is due for more playing time since he offers size and shooting on the wing. Krist is shooting 47% from deep and hasn't made a 2-point field goal this year, so keep an eye on him.
Maine vs. Navy Betting Analysis
I can't see the Midshipmen putting up a real battle here unless they bait Maine into fouls, which is the best offense Navy has.
It's certainly possible since Maine is an aggressive defense team, but Navy just isn't good enough on either end to push Maine.
Plus, Maine can battle Kehoe's length with a trio of 6-foot-10 forwards in Keelan Steele, Killian Gribben and Ridvan Tutic. Kehoe is shooting 14% from the foul line and Maine's interior depth could sacrifice fouls to put Kehoe on the stripe.
I'm keeping an eye on that factor here.
