The LSU Tigers take on the SMU Mustangs in Frisco, TX. Tip-off is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
SMU is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -194. The total is set at 152.5 points.
Here is my LSU vs. SMU predictions and college basketball picks for December 14, 2024.
LSU vs SMU Prediction
My Pick: SMU -4.5 (Play to -6)
My LSU vs SMU best bet is on the Mustangs spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
LSU vs SMU Odds, Spread
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 154.5 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 154.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
- LSU vs SMU spread: SMU -4.5
- LSU vs SMU over/under: 154.5 points
- LSU vs SMU moneyline: SMU -190, LSU +160
- LSU vs SMU best bet: SMU -4.5 (Play to -6)
My LSU vs SMU College Basketball Betting Preview
LSU Basketball
LSU is a victim of some fairly tough circumstances. First, promising big Tyrell Ward left the team, and his fellow sophomore, Jalen Reed, suffered a season-ending injury in the Tigers' win over Florida State.
So, where does that leave LSU?
The Tigers need spectacular play from the guards, particularly veterans Cam Carter and Jordan Sears. That's a pivotal part of LSU's offense since over 41% of its shots come from 3.
Carter has been terrific as a scorer, leading the Tigers with 17 ppg, but I fear LSU's two stud scoring guards are a bit too shot-happy. Neither are point guards or are great at creating plays for others, as Sears and Carter average the same amount of assists and turnovers. That's not an ideal winning formula.
LSU's offense is just so reliant on those two playing well. If you want a crazy stat — no other uninjured LSU player shoots better than 26% from 3 besides Sears and Carter. Keep an eye on freshman Vyctorius Miller. He's rapidly developing into the third option, but he's not a great shooter yet.
Something seems to be missing in LSU's defense. Granted, the Tigers are fantastic at limiting opponents to poor field goal percentages, as foes shoot just 44% on 2s and 33% on 3s, which rank top-30, but the eye test isn't up to my liking. I'd expect the field goal defense to regress a bit. LSU ranks 56th in defensive efficiency, and five of its past six opponents scored more than 1.00 PPP. The field goal defense numbers outline LSU is good at defending shots.
So, why isn't LSU a more efficient defense? Because opponents tend to get more than one shot thanks to LSU's porous 335th ranking in defensive rebounding rate.
SMU Basketball
SMU has enjoyed the start of the Andy Enfield era. He's begun his first year in Dallas with an impressive 8-2 record, but SMU owns just one win over a top-100 KenPom team (Washington State).
The Mustangs thrive using pace and scoring efficiently, ranking 30th in offensive efficiency. Boopie Miller is the straw that stirs the drink for the Stangs, leading the team with 14 ppg and 5.6 apg. He's done a terrific job running the offense, allowing fellow guards Chuck Harris and Kario Oqunedo to focus on scoring.
Interior depth is one of the strong suits for SMU. With five rotational players standing 6-7 or taller, the Mustangs can rotate the bigs and keep players fresh. Matt Cross starts at the 3, but he's 6-7 and leads the team with 7.8 rebounds, while 6-11 Yohan Traore and 7-2 behemoth Samet Yigitolu lurk.
It shouldn't be a surprise that SMU is elite at crashing the offensive glass, as it rebounds 40.3% of missed shots. The main reason SMU has won over a top-100 opponent is offensive rebounding. In the win over KenPom's No. 72 ranked Wazzu, SMU secured a jaw-dropping 22 offensive boards. Yeah, that'll play.
Defense is a bit of a worry, though. While SMU excels at limiting opponents from scoring inside (41% from 2, top-ten nationally), opponents light them up from 3 (34% from 3). That's why SMU's 103rd ranking in defensive efficiency is because teams love lighting up the ponies from downtown.
LSU vs. SMU Betting Analysis
Good luck to LSU holding the gargantuan Mustangs off the glass. That advantage alone is a great reason to back SMU, who will have ample opportunity to expose a wounded LSU interior.
I'm all over SMU here, even with the line sitting at -4.5, which is four points more than KenPom's projection. Without Reed, I think SMU is vastly better than LSU, so -4.5 is a good line to grab for SMU. I don't buy much stock in LSU's 8-1 record, nor it being a borderline top-50 team.
