The Kentucky Wildcats play the Iowa State Cyclones in the second round of the NCAA Tournament in St. Louis, Missouri. Tip-off is set for 2:45 p.m. ET on CBS.
Iowa State is favored by -5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -200. Meanwhile, Kentucky is the underdog at +5 with a moneyline of +164. The total is set at 145.5 points.
Here’s my Kentucky vs. Iowa State predictions and college basketball picks for March 22, 2026.
Kentucky vs Iowa State March Madness Prediction
My Pick: Under 145.5
My Kentucky vs Iowa State best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Kentucky vs Iowa State 2026 NCAA Tournament Odds
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -102 | 146.5 -105o / -115u | +180 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -120 | 146.5 -105o / -115u | -220 |
Kentucky vs Iowa State Expert Pick
Kentucky Basketball
Kentucky took March Madness' "Survive and Advance" slogan to heart as Otega Oweh banked in the game-tying triple at the buzzer to force overtime, and the Wildcats went on to win the game.
Oweh was outstanding, scoring 35 points on 11-of-24 shooting from the field, and continues to be one of the best players in the country in scoring in transition.
Brandon Garrison was active in his 25 minutes against Santa Clara, recording 10 points, seven rebounds and six blocks. That makes four consecutive games for Garrison where he's had two-or-more blocks dating back to the first round of the SEC Tournament.
Collin Chandler was one of Kentucky's best players for over a month, averaging 13.8 points per game over 12 games from January 17 to February 28. Since then, he's averaged 6.5 points in the last six games, scoring in double-figures once.
For Kentucky to continue its run in March, it'll need Chandler to be aggressive in finding his shot against Iowa State.
Iowa State Basketball
Iowa State cruised to a 108-74 win against Tennessee State in the first round, but it lost its star — Joshua Jefferson — to injury.
X-rays came back negative for Jefferson, and he was diagnosed with an ankle sprain. However, his availability is uncertain for the Cyclones' matchup against Kentucky.
Freshman guard Killyan Toure stepped up in the absence of Jefferson, scoring a game-high 25 points, grabbing 11 rebounds (eight of them being offensive), while having six assists and six turnovers.
Iowa State flexed its top-five defense against Tennessee State, forcing 16 turnovers with Blake Buchanan and Tamin Lipsey leading the team with three steals.
Though Lipsey has struggled from the field in the last two games (3-of-17 combined), his continuous aggression of being active in the passing lanes has allowed him to have three steals in back-to-back games.
If Jefferson isn't good to go, Nate Heise will be asked to step up in a bigger role, as he did against Tennessee State when he scored 22 points in 27 minutes.
Kentucky vs Iowa State Pick, Betting Analysis
Outside of Oweh, guard play has been inconsistent all season for Kentucky, and it'll struggle against Iowa State's aggressive defense.
On the flip side, Iowa State will potentially be without its best player. Though the offense clicked against Tennessee State, I expect regression against a Kentucky defense that's proven to guard the 3-point line this season, including holding Florida to 71 points on 3-of-20 from 3 in the SEC Tournament.
My Pick: Under 145.5
