The Iowa Hawkeyes take on the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing, MI. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Michigan State is favored by -5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -238. The total is set at 136.5 points.
Here’s my Iowa vs. Michigan State prediction and college basketball picks for December 2, 2025.
Iowa vs Michigan State Prediction
My Pick: Iowa +5.5 (Play to +5)
My Iowa vs Michigan State best bet is on the Hawkeyes to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Iowa vs. Michigan State Odds
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 136.5 -110 / -110 | +195 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 136.5 -110 / -110 | -238 |
- Iowa vs Michigan State spread: Michigan State -5.5
- Iowa vs Michigan State over/under: 136.5 points
- Iowa vs Michigan State moneyline: Iowa +195, Michigan State -238
Iowa vs Michigan State College Basketball Betting Preview
Iowa Basketball
Iowa is off to a perfect 7-0 start to the Ben McCollum era, and it’s been a thing of beauty — depending on what you like, of course.
McCollum didn’t just bring over several of his players from Drake, including All-American hopeful Bennett Stirtz; he brought his slow-paced, deliberate style with him as well.
The Hawkeyes are 357th in tempo, and they’re coming off a 59-46 win over Grand Canyon in the Acrisure Classic. Stirtz will walk the ball up the court, dribble the air out of it and the Hawkeyes will work their opponent for the entire shot clock.
Iowa ranks in the top 30 in KenPom efficiency on both sides of the ball.
Defensively, this group is so connected, leading to the sixth-best turnover percentage in the country.
While undersized, the Hawkeyes have done a great job forcing opponents into tough, contested shots. They’ve allowed the 13th-lowest assist rate (40.4%) in the country.
I mentioned Iowa’s lack of size. The Hawkeyes' biggest starter is 6-foot-9 Cam Manyawu, who was limited to 22 and 18 minutes in the Hawkeyes’ most recent wins vs. Ole Miss and Grand Canyon, respectively.
If he gets in foul trouble again, 6-foot-10 Robert Morris transfer Alvaro Folgueiras could be forced into bigger minutes, and he's struggled defensively this season.
I want to take a proper moment to highlight Stirtz’s brilliance so far. His 29 points and 6-of-8 shooting from deep carried Iowa to its win over Ole Miss a week ago. Plus, over his past four games, he has a 22-assist-to-three-turnover ratio, which is simply absurd.
He’ll likely play all 40 minutes in this matchup.
Michigan State Basketball
Tom Izzo’s Spartans are off to a great start this season, with a 7-0 record and wins over North Carolina, Kentucky and Arkansas. Sparty has risen from 34th to 17th in KenPom over the past few weeks, anchored by the fifth-best defense in the country and stellar point guard play from Jeremy Fears Jr.
Fears’ 9.7 assists per game is tops in the entire country, which pairs with his 12 points a night and 50% shooting from the field.
Michigan State has controlled the glass this year, ranking ninth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage and 31st in defensive rebounding. Anchored by veteran bigs Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper, Izzo’s squad is 20th in block percentage and 28th in opponent effective field goal percentage.
As mentioned, Fears has been an incredible floor general so far, contributing to Michigan State having the fourth-best assist rate nationally (69.5% of their buckets).
Sparty is a bit archaic in their lack of 3-point attempts (291st in 3PA/FGA), yet their shooting from deep has jumped from last season's 31.1% to 34% in 2025-26.
State only attempted 10 3s vs. UNC on Thursday, knocking down five of them. The Spartans shot 1-of-14 from deep in their home win over Arkansas. The Kentucky game was a bit of an outlier, as the Spartans connected on 11-of-22 attempts from downtown.
Iowa vs. Michigan State Betting Analysis
This is a really interesting matchup and it'll be an incredible start to Big Ten action. With the total currently sitting at 136.5, this should be a grinder.
Michigan State has an edge in this game for a lot of reasons (playing at the Breslin Center, being a much deeper team and having athletes and size in the frontcourt that will pose challenges for Iowa’s bigs).
Kohler will likely demand double teams on the block, and while Iowa has been a great rebounding team so far this season, Izzo’s boys present a much more difficult challenge.
However, if Iowa can keep Michigan State out of transition and make it execute in the half-court, I think the Hawkeyes can totally get scrappy — playing bigger than their size, competing on the glass and forcing a team that doesn’t want to shoot many 3s to cash in from distance.
Sparty also hasn’t taken great care of the ball outside of Fears, which is something Iowa will punish them for.
Iowa plays a super polished style of offense with timely cutting and impressive passing. Stirtz is such a pro in the way he creates for himself and others, hitting short rollers or doing whatever he needs to create advantages.
I think Iowa will be able to find success on that end of the floor.
All that to say, in front of a home crowd with more frontcourt bodies, I think Sparty wears the Hawkeyes down late and finds a way to win it. I can’t get myself to lay the number though. So, in what I expect to be a close matchup, give me the points.
My Pick: Iowa +5.5 (Play to +5)
