The Idaho Vandals play the Houston Cougars in the first round of the NCAA Tournament from Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Tip-off is set for 10:10 p.m. ET on truTV.
Houston is favored by -23.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -10000. Meanwhile, Idaho is the underdog at +23.5 with a moneyline of +3000. The total is set at 136.5 points.
Here’s my Idaho vs. Houston predictions and college basketball picks for March 19, 2026.
Idaho vs Houston Prediction
My Pick: Under 137.5
My Idaho vs Houston best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Idaho vs Houston Odds, Spread
| Idaho Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+23.5 -106 | 137.5 -115o / -105u | +3000 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-23.5 -114 | 137.5 -115o / -105u | -10000 |
- Idaho vs Houston spread: Houston -23.5
- Idaho vs Houston over/under: 137.5 points
- Idaho vs Houston moneyline: Idaho +3000, Houston -10000
Idaho vs Houston NCAA Tournament Betting Preview
Idaho Basketball
Idaho enters this first-round NCAA Tournament game having won four games in five days to capture the Big Sky title, capped off by a 77-66 victory over Montana in the finale.
This improbable run saw the Vandals enter as the seven seed, but after an easy dispatch of Sacramento State in the tournament opener, Idaho was able to upset Montana State and Eastern Washington to secure a spot in the final.
An impressive defensive showing propelled Idaho, which is returning to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1990.
The offense is led in scoring by Jackson Rasmussen and Kolton Mitchell, who each average 13.7 points per game for Idaho. Bico Johnson scores 12.4 points and Isaiah Brickner puts up 12.1 a night.
Idaho is going to let it rip from deep. The Vandals shoot nearly half of their shots from 3-point range and have six players who have made at least 30 triples this season.
Idaho routinely has four shooters on the floor at any one time, but despite the stylistic shooting approach, the Vandals are an excellent offensive rebounding team, per Big Sky standards, having collected 373 offensive boards this season.
The Vandals are going to have to win the rebounding battle by a wide margin to be able to procure second-chance possessions if they're to hang in there against Houston.
The defense has actually improved as the season has progressed, and the Vandals showed out on that end of the floor in the Big Sky Tournament. No team scored more than 75 points against Idaho in the event, and Idaho changed up its looks to limit the free-flowing offensive nature of its opponents.
There's not a lot of defense played in the Big Sky, but Idaho has a shored-up unit on this end.
Houston Basketball
While the Cougars haven't been as dominant as previous renditions under head coach Kelvin Sampson, they're still a dangerous Final Four contender. Neither the offense or defense has played its best basketball yet this season, in my opinion, but I think Houston can make a deep run.
The offense has been carried most of the way by Kingston Flemings, who averages 16.4 points and 5.3 assists per game while acting as the primary ball handler for the Cougars on offense. Emanuel Sharp averages 15.3 points and Milos Uzan scores 11.1 per night.
The Cougars protect the ball very well and commit turnovers at a rate of the sixth-fewest in the country. Houston is excellent on the offensive boards and can score at the rim very effectively. If this group starts making open shots in the mid-range, a deep NCAA Tournament run is to be expected.
While not the dominant defense we've seen in the past from Kelvin Sampson-coached teams, this is still a very strong team. Houston protects the rim well and is strong in limiting effective paint touches.
Houston forces long, methodical possessions often resulting in desperation 3-point shots, and the high-pressure defense forces turnovers on 21% of opponent possessions. The Cougars' length gives opponents problems, and I would suspect a strong showing in this game.
Idaho vs. Houston Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened with Houston pegged as 23-point favorites, and the Cougars have been bet up to 24.5-point favorites. The total is set at 136.5. I like the under here.
This game is going to be played at a slow pace. Idaho ran quite a bit in conference play, but it played at a slow pace in the non-conference against unfamiliar opponents. It routinely had games finishing in the mid-60s for overall possession count.
The Vandals can't get out and run on Houston and will struggle badly in procuring paint touches for Rasmussen and Brody Rowbury.
While the Vandals are going to attempt half of their shots from deep, I believe most of these shots will be highly contested and low-percentage looks. The Houston length and athleticism is going to force the Vandals to have to work deep into the shot clock to try to get open looks, further provoking a slower pace.
I think this group struggles to hit shots, and although a solid offensive rebounding team, Idaho is going to struggle on the glass.
We should see a ton of empty trips for the Vandals.
Houston is going to move slowly. This team is bottom-10 in the country in tempo, and Houston has settled for jumpers a lot this season. Those shots may fall here, but Houston doesn’t get to the line a ton, so Idaho should stay out of foul trouble and keep its better defenders out there on the floor.
In its last three NCAA Tournaments, Houston’s first-round opponents have scored 40, 46 and 52 points against the Cougars. Houston has been a great “under” team under Sampson when a heavy favorite with a total under 140.
Idaho is going to struggle mightily to score, and Houston is going to play exceedingly slow. I like the under in this matchup.
My Pick: Under 137.5
