We have three ranked matchups on Tuesday evening in college basketball, but none of three are bigger than Louisville vs. Kentucky (8 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Before their 2025 appearance, the Cardinals hadn't reached the NCAA Tournament since 2019, impacting the anticipation of this yearly rivalry from a national perspective.
But we're back now, and so here's how to bet Louisville vs Kentucky, including NCAAB picks from our Action Network staff for Tuesday's rivalry game.
Louisville vs Kentucky Best Bets
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Louisville vs. Kentucky: Spread Pick
These two teams are ranked inside the top 15, and with their roster makeups distinctly similar, this spread seems a bit high.
Kentucky has dominated this series lately, losing just three times since 2009.
Neither team has been tested yet this season — as both have played far inferior opponents — but this will be a game that comes down to the wire.
If Kentucky can find a way to not get out-gunned early in this road environment, it might find a way to win this game. But as always, take the points in your back pocket, because history tells us that Kentucky owns Louisville.
Pick: Kentucky +6.5 (Play to +6)
Louisville vs. Kentucky: Spread Pick
Kentucky enters Tuesday’s in-state rival matchup against Louisville catching as many as 6.5 points. However, the Wildcats have won three straight games in this series, including eight of their last 10.
Even their defeats have been by narrow margins, with the two games combined totaling just six points.
With both programs returning roughly 30% of their minutes from a season ago, according to Bart Torvik, we have two teams that should be relatively similar in terms of the talent they put on the court.
Even after accounting for home-court advantage, my model projects these teams as no more than three points apart.
Kentucky will always be up for the test against Louisville, and this is a favorable spot with perhaps the better team catching points on the road.
Pick: Kentucky +6.5 (Play to +6)
Louisville vs. Kentucky: Spread Pick
By Sean Paul
The line opened with Louisville as short 2.5-point favorites, but it's shifted to the home team at -6.5.
At just one possession, I leaned towards the added home-court advantage and stout guard play of Louisville.
However, the number is a bit out of hand here, so I have to back Kentucky at +6.5.
The Wildcats are currently the No. 1 team in KenPom, with the 11th-most efficient offense and sixth-most efficient defense. That’s what separates this season's Kentucky squad from last season's: It can actually defend.
I don’t think it’s a matchup thing and playing weaker opponents, either; the Wildcats are just good on defense.
Mark Pope made a conscious effort to balance the roster via the portal. That’s why the additions of Mouhamed Dioubate in the frontcourt and Denzel Aberdeen in the backcourt were huge.
If Jaland Lowe is back to a full workload, he and Otega Oweh could have a field day against a fairly questionable Louisville defensive backcourt.
Pick: Kentucky +6.5 (Play to +4.5)
Louisville vs. Kentucky: First-Half Spread Pick
Kentucky has dominated this rivalry matchup of late and that doesn't sit well with the Cardinal faithful or Pat Kelsey.
I expect the KFC Yum Center to be absolutely on fire tonight, and Louisville to come out swinging right out of the gates.
The Cardinals have scored 100+ in each of their first two outings, and while the Kentucky defense is certainly a step up in weight class, it’s not a unit I have much confidence in to slow down a Louisville backcourt filled with shotmakers.
I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if the Cards flirt with a 50-point first-half output.
On the other side of the floor, this will be the first road test of the young season for the Wildcats, and I think it’s fair to expect some early struggles in the half-court entering a raucous environment.
Kentucky should eventually settle in and have a chance to get back into the game, but look for Louisville to be the team to land the first couple of punches.
Give me Louisville to cover the first half number at -3,5, and I’d play it up to 4.
Pick: Louisville 1H -3.5 (Play to -4)
