The Florida State Seminoles take on the Houston Cougars in Houston, TX. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Houston is favored by -16.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2800. The total is set at 148.5 points.
Here’s my Florida State vs. Houston predictions and college basketball picks for December 6, 2025.
Florida State vs Houston Prediction
My Pick: Houston -16.5
My Florida State vs Houston best bet is on the Cougars to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Florida State vs. Houston Odds
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -110 | 148.5 -110 / -110 | +1160 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -110 | 148.5 -110 / -110 | -2800 |
- Florida State vs Houston spread: Houston -16.5
- Florida State vs Houston over/under: 148.5 points
- Florida State vs Houston moneyline: Florida State +1160, Houston -2800
Florida State vs Houston College Basketball Betting Preview
Florida State Basketball
Florida State grabbed the attention of the national college basketball audience following its close loss at Florida on November 11th. First-year head coach Luke Loucks looked like he was ahead of the curve despite a mid-major caliber roster.
But the Noles have quickly plummeted back down to Earth in a major way, losing to Texas A&M by 36 and Georgia by 34. A lack of defense and a helter-skelter, run-and-gun style can lead to getting blown out against superior competition.
Loucks implements a “pro” style attack. His Noles rank fifth nationally in offensive pace and get out in transition as much as possible. They space the floor in the half-court and rank sixth nationally in 3-point attempt rate, though they're just 246th in 3-point percentage.
A spread ball-screen attack keeps the floor spaced for cuts and open kicks to the perimeter. The Noles use their defense to spark their offense, particularly live ball turnovers.
Florida State ranks third nationally in defensive turnover rate, which has helped mask its issue finishing plays on the glass (313th in defensive rebounding rate).
Houston Basketball
Houston can exploit pretty much everything Florida State wants to do. The Cougars’ defense is still the team's calling card, as it ranks second in the country, per KenPom.
Houston denies transition at a high rate and it’s been ridiculous against ball screens. Per Synergy, the Cougars rank in the 95th percentile in PPP allowed to pick-and-roll ball handlers and in the 99th percentile in PPP allowed to pick-and-roll rollers.
Florida State will find it nearly impossible to get out in transition with Houston’s ability to pound the glass and take care of the ball.
The boards figure to be a blood bath, with the Coogs getting numerous second chances for their talented backcourt shooters.
Elite guards like Kingston Flemings, Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp are poised ball handlers who won’t fluster in the face of Noles' pressure.
Florida State vs. Houston Betting Analysis
The one hope for Florida State is Houston’s inability to prove it can blow out competitive teams. The Cougars toppled mid-majors easily, but teams like Syracuse, Tennessee, Auburn and Notre Dame have played them close – easily within the massive spread currently in the market.
The problem for the Noles is they need tons of chances in transition to score consistently, and that just isn’t a possibility with Houston’s rebounding and defensive ability. The Coogs should suffocate Florida State and completely take away what it wants to do offensively.
Houston crockpots Florida State over a full 40 minutes, covering in the last minute or two.
My Pick: Houston -16.5
